Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1233; (P) 1.1288; (R1) 1.1315; More…..

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1249 earlier today but quickly recovered, with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line again. Intraday bias turned neutral first. Further decline is still expected with 1.1341 minor resistance intact. We’d holding on to the view that consolidation from 1.1215 has completed. Below 1.1249 will target 1.1215 first. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 fibonacci level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.1341 resistance will dampen out view and suggest short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1215 with another rising leg.

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In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.


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