Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0727; (P) 1.0777 (R1) 1.0814; More…..
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, rise from 1.0494 should have completed at 1.0905 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. The whole corrective rise from 1.0339 is possibly finished too. Deeper fall should be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0682) first. Sustained break there will affirm this view and target 1.0494 resistance for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.0826 minor resistance will indicate that the corrective rise from 1.0339 is still in progress. Intraday bias would then be flipped back to the upside for 1.0905 and above.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.