Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0647; (P) 1.0664 (R1) 1.0686; More….
EUR/USD lost some downside momentum with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. But deeper decline is still expected with 1.0739 minor resistance intact. Our view is unchanged that corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed at 1.0905. And more importantly, larger down trend is probably resuming. Break of 1.0494 should confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low. Further break of 1.0339 will target parity next. On the upside, above 1.0739 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.