GBP/JPY dropped to 142.83 last week but formed a temporary low ahead of 142.76. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Some consolidation could be seen. But near term outlook remains cautiously bearish as long as 145.83 resistance holds. On the downside, firm break of 142.76 will pave the way to 139.29/47 key support zone.
In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.
In the longer term picture, as long as 139.29 holds, rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 (2016 low) at 159.11, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 167.78 before completion. However, firm break of 139.29 will turn focus back to 116.83/122.36 support zone instead (116.83 as 2011 low).
