GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 197.90. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Next target is 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 195.85 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But pullback should be contained well above 193.51 resistance turned support to bring another rally.
In the bigger picture, current rally is part of the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low), 195.86 long term resistance (2015 high) was already broken. Next target is 61.8% projection of 155.33 to 188.63 from 178.32 at 198.89 next. Break of 189.97 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the longer term picture, rise from 122.75 (2016 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 116.83 (2011 low). Focus is now on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 (2007 high) to 116.83 at 199.80. Decisive break there would pave the way back to 251.09 in the long term.
