GBP/JPY’s fall accelerated lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 198.94 to 189.31 from 194.73 at 185.10. Decisive break there will target 138.2% projection at 181.42. On the upside, above 189.57 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 194.73 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall to 100% projection of 208.09 to 180.00 from 199.79 at 171.70, even still as a correction.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 173.92).
