GBP/JPY’s decline from 196.38 extender lower last week but stayed well above 190.22 structural support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally remains in favor. On the upside, above 194.18 resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed and bring stronger rise back to 196.38. However, sustained break of 190.22 will indicate near term reversal.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 175.85).
