GBP/JPY edged lower to 199.04 again last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. For now, the structure of the fall from 205.30 suggests that it’s only a corrective move. Break of 204.22 resistance will argue that larger rise from 184.53 is ready to resume through 205.30. However, below 199.04 will target 197.47 cluster (38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 205.30 at 197.29).
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 197.47 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
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