GBP/JPY stayed in consolidations above 207.06 short term bottom last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 211.25 will target 38.2% retracement of 219.56 to 207.06 at 211.83. Break there will target 61.8% retracement at 214.78. Nevertheless, firm break of 207.06 will extend the fall from 219.56 to 206.10 fibonacci support.
In the bigger picture, price action from 219.56 is seen as correcting the up trend from 184.35 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 219.56 at 206.10 before the correction completes. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 217.45 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) is in progress. Next target is 251.09 (2007 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 55 M EMA (now at 190.50) holds.
