GBP/USD edged higher to 1.2715 last week but subsequent retreat suggests short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for near term rising channel support (now at 1.2427). Sustained break there will indicate that corrective rebound from 1.2099 has already completed. Nevertheless, above 1.2715 will resume the rebound to 1.2810 resistance next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.4248 structural resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
. Sustained break there will indicate that corrective rebound from 1.2099 has already completed. Nevertheless, above 1.2715 will resume the rebound to 1.2810 resistance next.){kind=link}