USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3965 continued last week after brief recovery. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3480 low. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.4791. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3709 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.
In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3581) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.
