USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3730 continued last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 1.4247 high. On the downside, below 1.4096 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, current rebound suggests that USD/CAD is still staying in medium term consolidation pattern from 1.3480. As long as 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290 holds, an eventual break of 1.3480 is in favor. However, firm break of 1.4290 will dampen this view, and target 1.4791 high instead.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, fall from 1.4791 could be correcting whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Firm break of 1.3480 support and sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.3640) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 M EMA will maintain medium term bullishness.
