Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2462; (P) 1.2508; (R1) 1.2534; More….
USD/CAD’s decline resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as low as 1.2480 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall from 1.2919 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.2919 at 1.2389. We’ll look for bottoming signal below there. On the upside, break of 1.2554 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, we’re still favoring the case that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we’d favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. With that in mind, fall from 1.2919 is viewed as a correction. Hence, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2061 low. In the long run, USD/CAD should have another medium term rise to take on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065.
