Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.19; (P) 145.55; (R1) 146.63; More…
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. The corrective structure of the fall from 149.35 dampened the original bearish view that rebound from 141.67 has completed. On the upside, break of 149.35 will resume the rebound to 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 141.67 at 154.19, as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94 high. Nevertheless, below 144.44 will bring deeper fall to retest 141.67 low.
In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 149.63) holds. Nevertheless, firm break of 55 W EMA will suggest that the range for medium term corrective pattern is already set.
