USD/JPY recovered further to 151.20 last week but retreated sharply ahead of 151.29 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 146.52 at 151.23). Initial bias remains neutral first and outlook stay bearish. On the downside, below 149.53 minor support will argue that the corrective recovery has completed and bring retest of 146.52 low. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 158.86. However, firm break of 151.23/9 will turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.94).
. Initial bias remains neutral first and outlook stay bearish. On the downside, below 149.53 minor support will argue that the corrective recovery has completed and bring retest of 146.52 low. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 158.86. However, firm break of 151.23/9 will turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance instead.){kind=link}