AUD/USD – 0.7874

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy :

Sold at 0.8030, met target at 0.7880

Position: – Short at 0.8030
Target:  – 0.7880
Stop: –

New strategy :

Sell at 0.7940, Target: 0.7790, Stop: 0.8000

Position: –
Target:  –

Although aussie rebounded after falling to 0.7839 and consolidation above this level is in store, if our view that top has been formed at 0.8066 is correct, upside should be limited to 0.7940-50 and bring another decline, below said support at 0.7839 would extend the erratic fall from 0.8066 top (wave iii peak) for retracement of early upmove in wave iv to 0.7800, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7786 support and price should stay above wave i top at 0.7712, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell aussie again on subsequent rebound as 0.7940-50 should limit upside. Above indicated resistance at 0.7980 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 0.8000, then towards 0.8043 resistance, above there would signal the pullback from 0.8066 top has ended instead, bring retest of this level first. We are keeping our latest bullish count that recent impulsive waves is unfolding as (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) and may extend headway towards 0.8150. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.


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