USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3646 last week but failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 1.3946 to 1.3439 at 1.3633. Yet, subsequent retreat was contained at 1.3532. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.3532 will argue that corrective recovery from 1.3439 has already completed, and bring retest of this low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3646 will bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3752 and above.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
