In focus today
From the US, the October ISM Manufacturing index is due for release. The flash PMI released earlier, and the regional Fed indices point to a small uptick. Private-sector data remains in focus in the US amid the shutdown-driven delays in public data releases. US Treasury will publish the first part of its quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) today, containing its latest borrowing estimates and cash balance targets for Q4 and Q1.
In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged early Tuesday morning, in line with market and analyst expectations.
In Sweden, the week begins with the release of the October manufacturing PMI today. Recent economic data pointed towards an uptick in activity, and a confirmation of the very strong manufacturing PMI outcome from last month (55.6) would further support this story. On Wednesday, we will get the services PMI numbers and the Riksbank is publishing their monetary policy rate decision. Everything but an unchanged rate of 1.75% would be a huge surprise. Finally, preliminary October inflation figures are scheduled for release on Thursday.
On Thursday, focus will turn to the central bank meetings in Norges Bank and Bank of England.
Economic and market news
What happened since Friday
In the US, the first Fed comments after last week’s meeting have shed light into what Powell described as ‘strongly differing views’ across the committee. On the dovish end, Governor Waller (voter) emphasized that current data does not signal a need to stop cutting and that he still advocates for a rate cut in December. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (non-voter) was more cautious, saying he only ‘eventually got behind [last week’s] cut’ and that he agrees with Powell saying December cut is not a foregone conclusion. On the hawkish end, both Cleveland Fed’s Hammack and Dallas Fed’s Logan (both 2026 voters) stated they did not see the need for cutting rates last week. Kansas City Fed’s Schmid (who voted against the cut) emphasized that ‘policy is only modestly restrictive and still needs to lean against demand’. Markets are pricing around 60% probability for a December cut, but we believe the Fed will end up pausing its easing cycle.
In China, manufacturing PMIs for October disappointed with declines in both the official version released on Friday as well as the private RatingDog PMI. Especially the official NBS PMI weakened with a decline from 49.8 to 49.0 (consensus 49.6) while RatingDog PMI manufacturing dropped from 51.2 to 50.6 (consensus 50.7). A reversal in the export order index was behind the decline, which may be related to the threat of 100% tariffs by US President Donald Trump in the first part of October. After some months of improvement in RatingDog PMI, the momentum seems to be fading, albeit not faltering. Other signals still underpin decent manufacturing activity, such as a rise in metal prices in the past two months, a strong reading for Emering Industries PMI in October as well as a rise in the China CKGSB business confidence.
In the euro area, HICP inflation declined to 2.1% y/y in October as expected by consensus. Core inflation surprised on the topside by holding steady at 2.4% y/y (cons: 2.3% y/y). The decline in headline inflation was thus due to lower food and energy inflation while services inflation rose to 3.4% y/y from 3.2% y/y. We expect euro area inflation to average 2.1% in the final quarter of the year before falling below target next year.
In Norway, the unemployment rate (SA) jumped from 2.1% to 2.2% in October, marginally higher than expected. This is also slightly higher than Norges Bank’s forecast from the September MPR at 2.1% and should be dovish for the monetary policy outlook. The number of (fully) unemployed increased by c 200 persons in October, signalling a moderate weakness in the labour market. The number of new vacancies dropped sharply, indicating lower demand for labour.
In geopolitics, reports indicate that the Trump administration has finalised plans for targeted strikes on Venezuelan military installations as well as ports and airports linked to drug cartels, following months of military buildup in the Caribbean. With 10,000 troops and advanced military assets already in the region there is speculation that strikes could occur soon. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Trump have dismissed these reports as false, with Rubio calling it a ‘fake story’. While the alleged strikes are expected to focus on narcotics-related sites, we believe risk assets may see volatility, with USD strengthening and Latin American credit spreads widening. However, the broader market impact is expected to remain limited barring major disruptions to global trade or commodity flows.
In the global oil market, OPEC+ agreed to a modest output increase of 137,000 bpd for December while pausing further hikes in early 2026 due to oversupply concerns. New sanctions on Russian producers have added uncertainty to forecasts, and the group aims to stabilise prices, which recently rebounded to USD 65 per barrel from a five-month low of USD 60. The group will reassess its strategy in a meeting on 30 November.
Equities: Equities were mixed on Friday. In fact, equities were mixed throughout last week. Asia has continued to impress, with the Korean Kospi up 7% in a single week! US has climbed, with S&P 500 0.3% higher on Friday (helped by Amazon being up +10% on report) and just below +1% higher for the week. Meanwhile, Europe and Nordics lagged behind, trading somewhat lower on Friday and for the week, with Helsinki the outlier – up an impressive 8% the last month following reports. Bottom line: regional allocation has really mattered in the past months.
Last week centred around tech earnings where the takeaway must be that with +1% on the index, markets handled significantly jacked up capex projections very well. On top of this, the hawkish surprise of Fed delaying the next rate cut, while markets had hoped for December, tested markets. Friday brought further news on this, with a flurry of hawkish FOMC commentary. Admittedly, there has been a lot of good things to balance this; lowered tariffs, an end to QT, strong earnings and AI-linked revenues not least. Nonetheless, some of the risks we flagged when lowering our risk recommendation somewhat in October have now played out, which could warrant a more constructive stance.
FI and FX: JPY and USD rose on Friday vis-à-vis EUR and Scandies on a day when overall risk sentiment was mixed. EUR/USD fell to around 1.1520, EUR/SEK rose to around 10.95 and EUR/NOK towards 11.70. The 10Y US yield held steady just below 4.10 ahead of this week’s quarterly refunding announcement. Short-term EUR rates fell as the market digested Thursday’s ECB meeting.
 emphasized that current data does not signal a need to stop cutting and that he still advocates for a rate cut in December. Atlanta Fed's Bostic (non-voter) was more cautious, saying he only 'eventually got behind [last week's] cut' and that he agrees with Powell saying December cut is not a foregone conclusion. On the hawkish end, both Cleveland Fed's Hammack and Dallas Fed's Logan (both 2026 voters) stated they did not see the need for cutting rates last week. Kansas City Fed's Schmid (who voted against the cut) emphasized that 'policy is only modestly restrictive and still needs to lean against demand'. Markets are pricing around 60% probability for a December cut, but we believe the Fed will end up pausing its easing cycle.){kind=link}