Crude oil has entered a new phase of the geopolitical crisis. WTI crude officially broke above the 80 per barrel level, marking both an important psychological milestone and its highest level since mid-2024. The move reflects a shift in market perception—from treating the Middle East conflict as a temporary geopolitical flare-up to pricing a more sustained disruption to global energy flows.
The latest “bullish nudge” came from comments of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who said the Trump administration has no timeline for when commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be safe again. When asked about reopening the critical waterway, Leavitt declined to commit to any timeframe, saying the situation is still being “actively calculated” by both the Department of War and the Department of Energy.
For energy markets, the absence of a timeline was itself the message. Traders had been looking for signals that military operations were close to stabilizing the shipping route. Instead, the administration’s remarks suggested that the roughly 20 million barrels of oil that normally transit the Strait of Hormuz each day may remain effectively off the market for an extended period.
Equally important was the implication that restoring commercial shipping is not currently the immediate priority. Leavitt’s wording suggested that U.S. strategy may still be focused on degrading Iranian military infrastructure rather than quickly reopening the sea lanes for tankers. That interpretation reinforced fears that the disruption could persist longer than previously assumed.
Technically, the latest rally has also triggered an important chart development. WTI’s break above the key resistance level at 78.87 could confirm the completion of a medium-term double bottom pattern formed around the 55.20 and 54.98 lows. That structure suggests the multi-year downtrend from the 2022 peak at 131.82 may be reversing.
If that interpretation holds, attention now turns to the next major technical level of 38.2% retracement of 131.82 to 54.98 at 84.33. A decisive break above that level would strengthen the case that crude has entered a broader up trend rather than simply experiencing a war-driven spike.
That could trigger further upward acceleration to 95.50 structural resistance or even further to 61.8% retracement at 102.46.
Still, the rally remains sensitive to shifts in geopolitical expectations. A drop below 73.35 support level would signal stabilization in some form. Oil prices may then enter a consolidation phase while waiting for further developments in the conflict.
