While Dollar is trading as the worst performer of the week at the time of writing, Yen’s decline looks finally taking off today. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated once again the need to maintain current ultra-loose monetary monetary. At the same time, some other major central banks are continuing or even restarting tightening. So far, Aussie is still in the pole position to end as the strongest one for the week, followed by Swiss France and Yen. Euro is following Dollar and Yen as the third weakest.
Technically, AUD/JPY’s rise form 86.04 extended higher this week. The firm break of 92.99 should confirm that correction from 99.32 has completed at 86.04. Further rally is now expected as long as 92.12 support holds, towards retest 99.32 high. The question is whether that would be accompanied by rise in AUD/USD through 0.6817 resistance, for USD/JPY through 140.90 resistance, or both.
In Asia, Nikkei rose 1.97%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.51%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.55%. Singapore Strait Times is flat. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.007 to 0.435. Overnight, DOW rose 0.50%. S&P 500 rose 0.62%. NASDAQ rose 1.02%. 10-year yield dropped -0.07 to 3.714.
BoC’s Beaudry: Data since April tipped the balance for rate hike
Paul Beaudry, Deputy Governor of BoC, has shed more light on the unexpected 25bps rate hike that took place this week. In a speech yesterday, he explained that the evidence gathered from a multitude of economic indicators had “tipped the balance” in favor of this decision. The persistent excess demand in Canadian economy, he observed, posed an increased risk of a stall in the decline of inflation, necessitating the rate hike.
Unanticipated robust economic growth was also a key factor that prompted the monetary tightening. “Economic growth rebounded in the first quarter of 2023 to 3.1%,” Beaudry said, “Consumption growth, in particular, was very strong at 5.8%, with household spending on both goods and services sharply higher. This surprised us.”
He then turned his attention to inflation, discussing April’s unexpected increase to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in March. “While that might not seem like much,” Beaudry continued, “it was in the opposite direction of what we expected, and the details behind the headline number were concerning.” The sticking points were that three-month measures of core inflation remain high and appear to “have lost their downward momentum”, and that goods inflation surprisingly accelerated in April, reversing months of deceleration.
Beaudry stated, “when we looked at the recent dynamics in core inflation combined with ongoing excess demand, we agreed the likelihood that total inflation could get stuck well above the 2% target had increased. Based on this accumulated evidence, we decided to raise the policy rate to slow demand and restore price stability.”
The Deputy Governor promised more insight into these matters in the BoC’s July forecast, indicating that the central bank remains vigilant and will adjust its policies as the economic climate necessitates.
BoJ to persist with monetary easing amid inflation uncertainty, says Ueda
BoJ is committed to maintaining its monetary easing policy as it seeks to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target, stated BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda in a parliamentary address.
He acknowledged, “There’s still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target. As such, we will patiently maintain our monetary easing policy.”
Ueda explained that the central bank’s strategy is to initiate a positive cycle in which inflation-adjusted wages will start to rise.
However, he also indicated that BOJ anticipates core consumer inflation to dip below 2% target in the latter half of the fiscal year. Despite this projection, Ueda expressed that there remains a substantial degree of uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook.
One key factor he highlighted is corporate price-setting behaviour, which he stated was “somewhat overshooting expectations.”
China CPI ticked up to 0.2% yoy in May, but PPI down -4.6% yoy
China CPI ticked up slightly from 0.1% yoy to 0.2% yoy in May, above expectation of 0.1% yoy. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed from 0.7% yoy to 0.6% yoy.
Food price rose 1.0% yoy, up from prior month’s 0.4% yoy. However, price for industrial consumer products dropped -1.7% yoy, worse than April’s -1.5% yoy. On a month-on-month basis CPI dropped -0.2% mom, deeper than April’s -0.1% mom.
PPI dropped from -3.60% yoy to -4.6% yoy, below expectation of -3.9% yoy. That’s also the steepest decline in seven years since May 2016.
Dong Lijuan, an NBS statistician, said the consumer inflation picked up marginally with the gradual recovery in consumer demand, while the fall in factory-gate prices was affected by declining international commodity prices, weak demand for industrial products at both home and abroad, as well as a high comparison base in the previous year.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 174.09; (P) 174.31; (R1) 174.70; More…
GBP/JPY’s up trend resumes by breaking through 174.66 temporary top. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 148.93 to 172.11 from 155.33 at 178.51. On the downside, break of 172.64 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is extending. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 122.75 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) from 123.94 at 178.69. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 167.82 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
Economic Indicators Update
|23:50||JPY||Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y May||2.70%||2.50%||2.50%||2.60%|
|01:30||CNY||CPI Y/Y May||0.20%||0.10%||0.10%|
|01:30||CNY||PPI Y/Y May||-4.60%||-3.90%||-3.60%|
|08:00||EUR||Italy Industrial Output M/M Apr||-1.90%||0.10%||-0.60%|
|12:30||CAD||Capacity Utilization Q1||82.20%||81.70%|
|12:30||CAD||Net Change in Employment May||21.2K||41.4K|
|12:30||CAD||Unemployment Rate May||5.10%||5.00%|