Market Overview
USD/JPY Hits Two-Year High as Hawkish Fed Revives Rate Hike Bets
USD/JPY surged to a fresh two-year high after the Federal Reserve delivered a significantly more hawkish message than markets had anticipated, reviving expectations that US interest rates could rise again before year-end. While the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as widely expected, the updated projections...
Fed Day Arrives: Dot Plot Holds the Key as Markets Await Warsh’s Debut
Markets are entering the Federal Reserve decision with remarkably little uncertainty about what policymakers will do, but considerable uncertainty about what they will signal next. The first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh as Chair is widely expected to deliver an unchanged federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with little chance...
Sterling Slips on UK Inflation Misses, But GBP/CAD Bullish Case Remains Intact
Sterling came under modest pressure after UK inflation data undershot expectations in May, but the report is unlikely to materially alter the Bank of England's policy outlook or the broader bullish case for some GBP crosses. Headline CPI held steady at 2.8% yoy, below expectations for a rise to...
DOW Hits Record High as Falling Oil Prices Offset Fed Fears
The DOW is sending a very different message from the rest of Wall Street. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ spent much of the past two sessions showing signs of caution ahead of today's FOMC rate decision, the DOW Jones Industrial Average pushed to a new record high. Under...
Oil Crashes Below $80, But Markets Hold Fire Ahead of Fed Decision
The biggest move in global markets is still happening in oil. The most important move may come tomorrow.
Brent crude plunged below USD 80 today, extending a dramatic collapse that began after the United States and Iran reached a provisional peace agreement over the weekend. The decline accelerated after President...
Bitcoin Rally Faces Two Major Hurdles Before Bullish Reversal Can Be Confirmed
Bitcoin has extended its recovery this week, climbing back above the 66,000 level as risk appetite improves across financial markets. The rebound has been supported by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions following the US-Iran peace agreement, renewed enthusiasm for growth assets after the highly anticipated SpaceX market debut,...
AUD/JPY Weakens After BoJ Hike and RBA Hold, Risks Build Towards 112 and Below
The Bank of Japan hiked. The Reserve Bank of Australia paused. Neither decision surprised markets. Yet the reaction in AUD/JPY may be telling a more important story.
The cross drifted lower after the BoJ raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.00%, the highest level since 1995, while the RBA...
Relief Rally Sweeps Markets, BoJ and RBA Kick Off Central Bank Week
Markets are finally getting the outcome they have been hoping for. After months of conflict, Washington and Tehran announced a peace agreement that would bring an immediate end to hostilities, setting the stage for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the gradual restoration of normal oil flows....
Gold’s Bullish Reversal Takes Shape After US-Iran Breakthrough, 4366 Key Test Ahead
The biggest geopolitical breakthrough of 2026 may have just given Gold the catalyst it needed. Gold opened the week with a bullish gap and surged back above 4,300 after Washington and Tehran announced a formal Memorandum of Understanding to end their months-long war.
The agreement, brokered through intensive mediation by...
Will the Fed Blink? Markets Enter High-Stakes Week of Global Rate Decisions
Will the Fed Blink? Markets Enter High-Stakes Week of Global Rate Decisions
Markets are entering a week where almost every major central bank is expected to stand still. Yet it could still become one of the most volatile policy weeks of the year. Decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of...
Peace Is Near, But Inflation Is Already Here: Markets Shift Focus From Iran to Fed Risks
For the first time since the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, financial markets can plausibly see a genuine path toward peace. Reports throughout the week indicated that the United States and Iran are closer than at any point since hostilities began to signing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,...
Dollar Down But Not Out While Oil’s $10 Collapse Signals Iran Deal Optimism
Dollar is under broad-based pressure today as safe-haven demand unwinds, but the scale of the selloff remains surprisingly modest considering the dramatic move in oil markets. Brent crude has plunged from above $95 just a day ago to below $86, one of the sharpest declines since the Iran conflict...
Oil Collapses on Hormuz Optimism, EUR/CAD Rally May Be Just Getting Started
Oil prices extended their sharp decline on today as markets grew increasingly confident that a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations could eventually restore normal energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped back into the $86-87 region, with the break below the psychologically important $90 level reinforcing the...
Gold and Silver Hold Make-or-Break Zones After Trump’s Iran Pivot, but Bullish Reversal Remains a Work in Progress
Financial markets staged a powerful relief rally after US President Donald Trump abruptly called off planned military strikes against Iran and declared that diplomatic discussions had reached the "highest level of Iranian leadership." Trump later suggested that a peace agreement could be finalized as soon as this weekend, potentially...
Euro Shrugs Off ECB Hike as Traders Refocus on Rising US-Iran Risks
The Euro was broadly steady after the ECB delivered its widely anticipated 25 basis point rate hike, as traders quickly shifted their attention back to the Middle East. While the central bank raised inflation forecasts and lowered growth projections, the decision largely matched expectations. More importantly, policymakers offered no...
GBP/CHF’s Head-and-Shoulders Bottom Points to Bigger Gains as BoE and SNB Diverge
GBP/CHF may be offering one of the clearest examples of how monetary policy divergence and technical analysis can reinforce each other. The cross surged to its highest level since January this week, after breaking through key near term resistance at 1.0674. More importantly, that move appears to complete a...
Trump, Iran and Hormuz: Brent Oil’s Double Bottom Could Be the Real Warning.
Financial markets continue to behave as though diplomacy will ultimately prevail in the Middle East. That assumption is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. Over the past 48 hours, the conflict has escalated dramatically following the downing of a US military helicopter off the coast of Oman, triggering direct military...
US CPI Delivers Relief, But Middle East Risks Intensify
Markets received some welcome relief from US inflation data today, but the respite might prove short-lived as renewed geopolitical tensions quickly returned to the forefront. While headline CPI accelerated to its highest level in three years, the underlying details were slightly softer than feared, allowing investors to step back...
AUD/USD Faces 0.70 Breakdown If US Core CPI Tops 3%
AUD/USD is sitting on the edge of a cliff, and US inflation data may determine whether it falls.
Global markets have struggled to regain their footing after last week's selloff. Attempts to revive the AI trade have faded quickly, while concerns over persistent inflation and renewed US-Iran tensions continue to...
Gold Approaches Make-or-Break $4,000 Zone as US-Iran Tensions Escalate
Gold's selloff accelerated again as fresh headlines from the Middle East suggest the US and Iran are moving further away from a peace deal rather than closer to one. With the Strait of Hormuz still constrained and energy markets facing prolonged disruption, investors continue to focus on the inflation...