Sterling Retreats after Failing Breakout, Dollar Recovers
Global stock markets are lifted by US fiscal stimulus as well as Brexit trade deal. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are set to extend recent record runs, as indicated by futures. Though, the movements in the forex markets are relatively subdued. Sterling is paring some of last week's gains, after...
Dollar Softens after Trump Signed Pandemic Relief Bill, Sterling Mildly High on Brexit Trade Deal
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc are the relatively weaker ones in quiet markets today. Asian investors are lifted slightly after US President Donald Trump signed the massive USD 2.3T package that contains a USD 900B pandemic relief, while also averted government shutdown. Sterling and Euro are the firmer ones...
Last-Minute Brexit Deal Reached. GBP Upside Limited with Good News Already Priced in
A last-minute Brexit trade deal has been reached just before the Christmas. the outcome is largely inline with our expectations. As a no-deal Brexit is avoided, BOE should be able to keep its powder dry for the year to come. The chance of negative interest rate has also been...
US Dollar to Weaken Further Gradually in 2021
The DXY index will likely record a -6% fall in 2020, the first decline in 3 years. Although US economic recovery should lend support to the dollar, exceptionally accommodative monetary policy, widening deficit (exacerbated by the new round of fiscal stimulus) and reduced demand for safe-haven asset should keep...
Sterling Rises as Brexit Deal Said to be Pretty Much There
Sterling rises broadly in early US session on rumor that Brexit trade deal is "pretty much there". But just like recent price actions, upside of the Pound is capped so far, waiting for confirmation. Dollar turns softer after a mixed batch of economic data, while firmer risk sentiment also...
Trading Remains Subdued as Some US Data Awaited
Trading remains rather subdued with markets already in holiday mode. Sterling has the potential to explode with wild moves, but we're so far disappointed by the lack of progress in Brexit trade negotiations. The surge in cases of the coronavirus, with threats of a new strain, also kept risk...
Euro and Swiss Franc Slightly Firmer in Subdued Trading
It seems that traders are already on holiday with the subdued market activity today. Sterling softens again on reports that EU rejected UK's latest proposal on fishing rights. Australia and Zealand Dollars also dip mildly. On the other hand, Swiss France firms up together with Euro, followed by Dollar...
Sterling Volatility Continues, Dollar Rebound Falters
Sterling's exceptional volatility continued as traders turned a bit more optimistic on a Brexit trade deal. But upside remains capped, as nothing is done until everything is done. Markets are also mixed elsewhere, with the positive impact of US fiscal stimulus being offset by worries over new strain of...
Renewed Coronavirus Worries Prompt Risk Aversions, Dollar Rebounds
European markets open the week in heavy selloff on worries over a new strain of coronavirus discovered in the UK, which was seen as "out of control" by the Health minister. At the time of writing, DOW future is also down around -500 pts. Dollar is staging a broad...
Gold’s Rally Supported by US Fiscal Package and Fed’s Pledge to Keep Stimulus Unchanged after 2% Inflation Exceeded
Gold’s rebound late November has continued for a third week. Besides bargain hunting, Fed’s pledge to keep the policy rate low and strengthening in the forward guidance in QE, as well as the latest fiscal package approved by the Congress are the key driving forces supporting the yellow metal.
The...
Sterling Dives Again on Brexit Deadlock and Coronavirus Spread
Sterling opened the week broadly lower after Brexit trade negotiations missed yet another deadline. Additionally, European countries rushed to ban travel from UK as coronavirus infections worsened. Aussie and Kiwi are trailing as the next weakest on mild risk aversion. On the other hand, Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc...
Dollar Resumed Down Trend, Pound Still Awaiting Brexit Trade Talks
Dollar's broad based down trend resumption was a major theme last week. Though, Canadian Dollar was the worst performing one, as it digested recent oil price supported rally. Overall risk appetite, with NASDAQ extending record run, kept Yen and Swiss Franc soft too.
As Brexit trade negotiations went into an...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on US dollar. Better Sentiment Lifted Risk Currencies
US dollar's weakness continued as risk appetite improved. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 15, NET SHORT of USD Index futures more than doubled to 14 056 contracts. Speculative long positions plunged -8 499 contracts and short positions dropped -929 contracts....
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets Trimmed on Crude Oil Futures as Traders Took Profit after 7-Week Rally
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 15, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures decreased -825 contracts to 513 804 for the week. Speculative long position fell -6 539 contracts, while shorts declined -5 714 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
Dollar in Weak Recovery in Quiet Pre-holiday Trading
Trading in the financial markets are rather subdued today, pretty much in pre-holiday mood. Dollar is still in recovery mode but upside momentum has been very weak. The greenback is set to end as the worst performing one, followed by Canadian and then Swiss Franc. On the other hand,...
Dollar Paring Losses While Yen Crosses Turning Up
Dollar recovers broadly today as markets turn into consolidative mode. The greenback pars back some of f the previous selloffs. but remains the worst performing one for the week. Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc follow as the next weakest. On the other hand, Sterling and Aussie turn a bit...
Dollar’s Selloff Intensifies after Poor Initial Jobless Claims
Dollar's selloff intensifies further today, after worse than expected job data. Also, markets are generally on risk-on mode, as traders are optimistic that stimulus deal could be reached in the Congress soon. Swiss France is currently the next weakest, having little reactions to SNB rate decision. Australian and New...
BOE Stays Put as Deadline of Brexit Talk Approaches
BOE left the Bank rate unchanged at 0.1% and the asset purchase program at 875B pound. The central bank remained cautious about the “unusually uncertain” economic outlook and pledged to take “whatever additional action is necessary” if the outlook for inflation weakens. Despite forecasts that GDP growth in December...
Dollar Extends Fall after FOMC, BoE and SNB Next
Dollar's decline continues in Asian session today, with mild risk-on markets in the background. FOMC rate decision overnight triggered little reactions in the markets, and the greenback holds on to the near term trajectory. Sterling is currently the strongest one, awaiting BoE rate decision, and more news regarding Brexit...
US Crude Inventory Dropped while Petroleum Stockpiles Increased
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks fell -6.24 mmb to 1367.64 mmb in the week ended December 11. Crude oil inventory fell -3.14 mmb (consensus: -1.94 mmb) to 500.1 mmb. Stockpile decreased in 3 out...