Canadian Dollar Turns Weaker ahead of BoC, Dollar Extending Rebound
Dollar's recovered continued in Asian session today, partly supported by hawkish comments from a Fed official. Mixed sentiments in the stock markets also stabilized the greenback. Instead, commodity currencies continued to reverse some gains. Main focus today will turn to BoC policy decision but that would likely be a...
Sterling Down as Risk Sentiment Turns Weaker, Dollar Trying to Rebound
Risk sentiment turns a bit weaker today in the stock markets. But benchmark European and US yields are staging a strong rally. In the currency markets, Aussie is sold off is in delayed reaction to RBA's dovish tapering, but Canadian is follow closely with selloff in oil price. Sterling...
BOC Preview – QE Tapering to Pause as Economy Contracted in 2Q21
Torn between disappointing economic activities but rising inflation, higher vaccination rate but worsening Delta outbreak, and a federal election just 12 days after this week’s meeting, the BOC will likely stand on the sideline this month. Policymakers will keep its weekly asset purchases unchanged at CAD 2B/ week and...
RBA Adopts Dovish Tapering as Delta Outbreak Expected to Hurt Growth in 3Q
At the September meeting, the RBA decided to reduce QE asset purchases to AUD 4B/week, from ADU 5B/ week previously. It also left the cash rate, as well as the yield target on the April 2024 bond, unchanged at 0.1%. The central bank did include a dovish twist, signaling...
Aussie Shrugs RBA, Dollar Recovery Losing Steam
Trading the the forex markets remain rather subdued in Asian session. Aussie basically shrugs off RBA's decision to taper, but extend QE. Dollar is trading slightly softer, as yesterday's recovery lost momentum. European majors are currently the slightly firmer ones. But overall, traders are staying in wait-and-see mode. Risk...
ECB Preview – Time to Lower Asset Purchases?
The pace of asset purchases in the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in 4Q21 is the focus of this week’s ECB meeting. Following hawkish comments from some council members, especially chief economist Philiip Lane, hopes that an announcement related to reduction in purchases would be made at the upcoming...
Dollar Paring Some Losses, Aussie Retreats Ahead of RBA
Trading in the currency market is rather subdued today and markets will stay quiet with US and Canada on holiday. Dollar is paring some of last week's large losses but upside momentum is weak. On the other hand, Australia Dollar is turning slightly weaker as tomorrow's RBA policy decision...
Currencies Shrug Strong Rise in Nikkei, Focus Turn to RBA, BoC and ECB
Dollar recovers mildly in quiet Asian session today, but there is no sign of a sustainable rebound yet. Most major pairs and crosses are staying inside Friday's wide range. Strong rally is seen in Japanese Nikkei today, but there is little reaction in FX. Trading could remain subdued with...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Risk Currencies to Gain Ground after Weaker-than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls
In the last week of August, bets on USD index futures fell on both sides as traders pondered Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech and awaited the August employment report. As speculations of Fed's tapering tamed after both events, it is likely that the euro, as well as commodity...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Gold Strengthened Further as Tapering Hopes Faltered
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended August 31, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -17 784 contracts to 356 528 for the week. Speculative long position declined -13 154 contracts, while shorts gained +4 630 contracts. It is possible to see an...
Dollar Weakness to Stay after Substantial Setback in Job Recovery
Dollar was under pressure most of the week and selling accelerated again after the big disappointment in employment data. The non-farm payroll report could show that job market recovery had made a "substantial setback" rather than "substantial further progress". A tapering announcement from Fed in September is basically off...
Dollar Spikes Down after Huge NFP Miss, Gold Upside Breakout
Dollar spikes lower in early US session after huge NFP miss. But the selloff is only firm against commodity currencies at the time of writing. In particular, the greenback is trying to recovery against European majors, as well as Sterling. Traders might need a bit more time to make...
Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc Continue to Decline as Focus Turns to NFP
Overall developments in the markets are unchanged for the week. US stocks continued with recent up trend overnight. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc extended near term decline. New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the strongest one, followed by Euro and then Sterling. Main focus will now turn to US...
OPEC+ Sticks With Original Plan to Add Output Despite Economic Uncertainty. US Inventory Fell Sharply
The OPEC+ will continue to increase oil output by +0.4M bpd in October. The decisions was made swiftly and came in line with the alliance’s plan to gradually bring back the output reduced (9.7M bpd) amidst the outbreak of the pandemic last year. Although the alliance has projected that...
Risk Sentiment Firms Up after Jobless Claims, Dollar Staying Weak
Risk-on sentiment firms up slightly after better than expected jobless claims from the US. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc continue to trade as the weakest ones. On the other hand, New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the strongest. But the moves in risk markets are limited so far. Investors...
Yen Crosses Trading Up But Markets Stay Generally Cautious
While NASDAQ surged to new record high overnight, overall closes were mixed with DOW slightly down. Asia markets also lack a clear direction. Investors appear to remain cautious ahead of US non-farm payroll report tomorrow. So far, New Zealand and Australian Dollars are the strongest ones for the week....
Kiwi Gains Support from Hawkish RBNZ
New Zealand dollar was the only major currency rose against the US dollar in August, despite speculations over Fed’s tapering and renewed lockdown. We believe policymakers’ proactive reassurance of an October rate hike would likely make the RBNZ the first major central bank to begin rate hike after the...
Dollar Weakens Mildly after ADP Miss, Yen Selloff Continues
Dollar weakens mildly in early US session after big ADP job data miss. But Swiss Franc and Yen remain the weaker ones. Euro and Sterling firm up mildly. But they are outshone by Aussie and Loonie for the moment. Overall movements in the currency markets are limited, except in...
Dollar Losing Downside Momentum, Sellers Turn to Yen and Franc
Dollar recovers broadly today, as the near term decline lost momentum. Selling focus is turned to Yen and Swiss Franc instead. Traders are now awaiting key economic indicators from the US, while would start with ADP employment and ISM manufacturing today, to be completed with non-farm payrolls and ISM...
Disappointing PMI Suggests PBOC will Ease Further. Policy Divergence to Drive CNY Lower vs USD
The latest data revealed that China’s economy continued to lose momentum. The PMI report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed disappointment in both manufacturing and services activities. Stability of the renminbi (a.k.a. Yuan, CNY) is mainly due to government’s control and is not reflective of the headwind...