Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that Fed moved too slowly in 2021 in tackling high inflation. He’s concerned that inflation is pulling wages up and there are risks of going into a wage-driven inflation story. As inflation is spreading, he said that Fed need to act with urgency.

There are some financial markets that are indicating that Fed will cut interest rates in 2024. But Kashkari said, “I don’t want to say it’s impossible, but it seems like that’s a very unlikely scenario right now given what I know about the underlying inflation dynamics.”

“The more likely scenario is we would continue raising (interest rates) and then we would sit there until we have a lot of confidence that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%,” he said.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said, “about 50% of the elevated inflation we’re seeing is from demand factors, 50% from supply factors.”

“50 bps hike would be a reasonable thing to do in September but if we see inflation roaring ahead undauntedly then perhaps 75 bps hike would be more appropriate,” she added.

Also, she does not believe that Fed has reached the threshold for interest rate to be considered restrictive As for tightening, having rate at 3.4% by the end end is a “reasonable place” to get to.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said in a speech, “we are committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent target and have made clear we will do what it takes.” He expected Fed’s tools to “work over time” and “inflation to come down but not immediately, not suddenly and not predictably”.

“There is a path to getting inflation under control,” he said. “But a recession could happen in the process.”

“We are out of balance today because stimulus-supported excess demand overwhelmed supply constrained by the pandemic and global commodity shocks. Returning to normal means products on shelves, restaurants fully staffed and cars at auto dealers. ”

“Most importantly, moderating demand has a higher purpose squarely in our mandate: containing inflation. If there is any lesson that’s been relearned in the last year, it is that inflation is painful, and everyone hates it.”

Full speech here.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday that inflation has “come in hotter” than he expected during Q2. Thus, “I think we’re going to have to go a little bit higher than what I said before.” He added that the federal funds rate will have to go to 3.75-4.00% by the end of the year, comparing to the current 2.25-2.50%.

“Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s, it appears that both the Fed and the ECB may be able to disinflate in an orderly manner and achieve a relatively soft landing,” Bullard also noted.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a Washington Post interview yesterday, “I don’t believe we’re in a recession… We don’t have a slowdown in labor markets, and that’s two key factors that go into calling a recession.”

“Our policy has been to raise interest rates in order to cool down the demand side of the economy…. but certainly it hasn’t slowed enough, (a), to call it a recession; and (b), to even see that moderation in demand showing through yet to a moderation and a cooling-off of price increases and inflation,” she added.

“We have more work to do because we have not seen that turn in inflation. It’s got to be a sustained several months of evidence that inflation has first peaked – we haven’t even seen that yet – and that it’s moving down,” she also noted.

Full interview here.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Fed is “nowhere near almost done”, with inflation. “We have made a good start and I feel really pleased with where we’ve gotten to at this point.”

“It really would be premature to unwind all of that and say the job is done,” she said. “I also think that we’ve been with this high inflation for a while, and really getting too confident that we’ve already solved the problem,” Daly said, adding that the Fed needs to “keep committed until we actually see it in the data.”

Chicago Fed President Charles Evan said that is things “weren’t improving”, the 50bps rate hike in September is a “reasonable assessment”, but 75 bps “could also be ok”. He added “I doubt that more would be called for.”

“We wanted to get to neutral expeditiously. We want to get a little restrictive expeditiously,” Evans added. “We want to see if the real side effects are going to start coming back in line … or if we have a lot more ahead of us.”