Fed Logan: Skipping in Sep does not imply stopping

    Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remains unconvinced that the central bank has fully “extinguished excess inflation”, and “there is work left to do.”

    With the upcoming FOMC meeting slated for September 19-20, Logan noted “another skip could be appropriate.” However, she was quick to add that “skipping does not imply stopping,” suggesting that further policy actions might still be on the table.

    Logan expressed a consciousness of the dual risks presented at this junction: the peril of sustained high inflation and the danger of dampening the economy too much.

    With this in mind, she emphasized, “In coming months, further evaluation of the data and outlook could confirm that we need to do more to extinguish inflation.”

    Fed Goolsbee foresees change in rate debate focus

      Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed a cautious optimism in an interview with Marketplace Radio yesterday, noting that the focal point of discussions surrounding interest rates might soon shift.

      Goolsbee acknowledged “overall level of inflation is still above where we want to be.” Despite the circumstances, he demonstrated a semblance of confidence that “There’s a growing confidence that we can pull it off.”

      However, he asserted that the achievement wasn’t set in stone, adding a note of caution: “that’s not a guarantee.”

      Goolsbee foresees a change in narrative in the coming times. Instead of deliberating on the scale of rate hikes, he envisaged that the discourse would gravitate towards the duration for which rates should be maintained at the established levels to steer the economy back on the desired path.

      Putting it succinctly, he remarked, “We are very rapidly approaching the time when our argument is not going to be about how high should the rates go.”

      Elaborating on this, he stated, “it’s going to be an argument of how long do we need to keep the rates at this position before we’re sure that we’re on the path back to the target.”

      Fed Williams: Still an open question as we go forward

        New York Fed President John Williams, engaged in a discussion moderated by Bloomberg yesterday, where he noted that while is “pretty clear we’re restrictive” on monetary policy, there remains “still an open question as we go forward.”

        Williams expressed optimism that “things are moving in the right direction and we’ve got policy in a good place.” However, he insisted on the continuous need to be “data-dependent” and closely watch economic developments to make informed decisions regarding monetary policy trajectory.

        He urged for sustained focus on comprehensive data analysis, stating, “We’ll have to keep watching the data carefully analyzing all of that and really asking ourselves the question: is this sufficiently restrictive.”

        BoC Macklem concerned that inflation progress has slowed

          BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a speech overnight that 2% inflation target is now in sight”. However, he cautioned, “we are not there yet and we are concerned progress has slowed”. Also, “monetary policy still has work to do”.

          In a bid to harmonize the potentially conflicting risks of “under- and over-tightening,” BoC opted to hold policy rate at 5% this week. Macklem didn’t rule out the possibility of further rate hike, mentioning that such a step might become necessary “if inflationary pressures persist.”

          As Canada navigates a period riddled with economic uncertainties, the central bank adopts a vigilant stance, closely monitoring an array of indicators to assess the trajectory of inflation. Macklem highlighted the multifaceted nature of the factors affecting inflation data month on month, distinguishing between temporary influences and those with a potential for a lasting impact.

          Full speech of BoC Macklem here.

          US jobless claims down to 216k, vs exp. 235k

            US initial jobless claims fell -13k to 216k in the week ending September 2, better than expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -8.5k to 229k.

            Continuing claims dropped -40k to 1679k in the week ending August 26. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -1k to 1701.5k.

            Full US jobless claim release here.

            BoE Decision Maker Panel indicates easing inflation expectations

              In the latest release of BoE Decision Maker Panel survey data for August, there is a tangible shift in business expectations pointing towards a decrease in both output price inflation and CPI inflation over the coming year, albeit with a lingering high degree of uncertainty.

              According to the report, firms anticipate a fall in output price inflation over the next year, with the year-ahead output price inflation envisioned to be 4.9% in the three months leading up to August. This projection denotes a dip of -0.5% in comparison to the data gathered in the three months to July.

              One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations lowered to 4.8% in August, a significant reduction from the 5.4% foreseen in July. Furthermore, when casting the net wider to encompass a three-year period, August data records a slight decrease to 3.2%, down by a marginal -0.1% from July’s expectations.

              In the realm of wage growth, there is a persistence of the previously noted trend with expectations for the year ahead holding steady at 5.0% in August. Despite this, it is essential to note that the figure is overshadowed by the realized wage growth reported at a higher 6.9% for both single month data and the cumulative data for the three months to August.

              However, amidst these optimistic projections, businesses seem to be grappling with considerable uncertainty. A substantial 53% of firms expressed that they are facing high to very high levels of uncertainty, a statistic that has remained unchanged from July.

              Full BoE DMP release here.

              China’s exports and imports continue to contract, Yuan weakness persists

                In August, China reported a fourth consecutive monthly contraction in exports, dropping -8.8% yoy to USD 284.9B. However, the contraction was narrower than market’s expectation of a -9.5% yoy decline and an improvement from July’s -14.5% yoy fall.

                Imports also shrank by -7.3% yoy to USD 216.5B, beating expectations of -9.4% yoy decline and improving from July’s -12.4% yoy drop. This marks a consistent trend of contracting imports every month in 2023 compared to the year-ago period.

                Despite these figures beating expectations, trade surplus shrank from USD -80.6B to USD -68.4B, almost in line with expectation of USD -60.0B.

                While the narrowing contraction in exports and imports could be seen as a mildly positive development, it doesn’t significantly alter the broader narrative of economic cooling in China.

                Offshore Chinese Yuan continued its decline today, sparking questions about the timing and intent of potential interventions by Chinese authorities.

                USD/CNH’s correction from 7.3491 should have completed at 7.2387 already. Rise from there is likely resuming the larger up trend 6.6971. From a pure technical perspective, USD/CNH should be ready to rise through 7.3745 (2022 high) to 61.8% projection of 6.8100 to 7.2853 from 7.1154 at 7.4091.

                However, this raises two crucial questions: when will the Chinese authorities step in to intervene in the currency markets, and what will be the nature of such intervention—i.e., whether they aim to set a floor for Yuan or merely slow its depreciation.

                RBA Lowe cautions against complacency in managing inflation risks

                  In his final public speech as RBA Governor, Philip Lowe stated that for inflation to average around 2.5%, wage increases should typically align with productivity growth plus an additional 2.5%. He sees it as a “reasonable benchmark”, even it’s “not a hard and fast rule”.

                  Lowe’s recent attention has been particularly focused on the risk associated with the current period of high inflation. Specifically, he warned of the peril that “wages growth and profits running ahead of the rate that is consistent with a sustainable return of inflation to target.”

                  In such a scenario, he cautioned, inflation would become “sticky,” necessitating “tighter monetary policy and more economic pain later on.”

                  Lowe acknowledged that recent data offers some level of comfort but emphasized the importance of remaining alert to these inflation risks. Rise in productivity growth, he noted, would be a welcome development as it would facilitate stronger growth in both nominal and real wages and profits.

                  Full speech of RBA Lowe here.

                  BoJ Nakagawa sees positive developments, but loose monetary policy still needed

                    BoJ Board member Junko Nakagawa struck a cautiously optimistic tone today about the Japanese economy, citing “positive developments” and “signs of change in corporate price and wage-setting behavior.”

                    However, she was quick to note that the country has not yet achieved its price target “in a stable, sustainable fashion.”

                    Nakagawa noted that there are chances inflation could accelerate beyond initial expectations. However, she also warned of the potential for inflation to decelerate once the pass-through effects of higher costs begin to moderate.

                    The policymaker underscored the need for BoJ to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being, citing the prevailing economic uncertainty.

                    BoE Bailey signals near end of tightening cycle, shifts to data-driven stance

                      In today’s parliamentary hearing, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey provided nuanced insights that suggest the central bank could be nearing the end of its interest rate-hiking cycle. While Bailey was cautious not to confirm that rates have peaked, he pointed to “current evidence” indicating the bank is “much nearer now to the top of the cycle.”

                      Bailey asserted that many economic indicators are behaving as expected, signaling a likely continued—and quite marked—fall in inflation by year-end. Although he warned of a temporary uptick in the next data release due to year-on-year changes in fuel prices, he brushed off the development as non-central to the inflation trajectory.

                      Reflecting on BoE’s recent shift in policy language, Bailey noted that the bank has moved from a posture of determining the “how much and over what time frame” of rate hikes to a more “evidence and data-driven” approach. He also emphasized that monetary policy is “now restricted in its impact,” indicating a limited scope for further significant rate hikes.

                      Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe also weighed in on inflation, noting the presence of “mixed signals.” While pay growth and service price inflation remain strong, there are signs of “cooling in the labour market,” he said, framing this as a focal point of discussions moving forward.

                      US ISM services rose to 54.5, employment and prices jump

                        US ISM Services PMI rose from 52.7 to 54.5 in August, comfortably above expectation of 52.6. Looking at some details, business activity/production ticked up from 57.1 to 57.3. New orders rose from 55.0 to 57.5. Employment rose strongly from 50.7 to 54.7. Prices also rose from 56.7 to 58.9.

                        ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for August (54.5 percent) corresponds to a 1.6-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

                        Full ISM services release here.

                        BoC stands pat, keeps hawkish bias

                          As anticipated, BoC keeps its overnight rate unchanged at 5.00%, alongside the Bank Rate at 5.25% and the deposit rate at 5.00%. Despite the steady rates, the tone of the announcement underscored ongoing concerns about inflation, coupled with a softer outlook on economic growth.

                          BoC explicitly stated that it remains “concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures,” signaling a continued tightening bias. In its words, the central bank is “prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed,” highlighting its willingness to act if inflation doesn’t abate.

                          Full BoC statement here.

                          Fed’s Collins advocates patience and holistic data assessment

                            Boston Fed President Susan Collins struck a note of caution and restraint in todays remarks, suggesting that while policy rates may be reaching their peak, further tightening could still be on the table, dependent on “holistic data assessment.”

                            “This phase of our policy cycle requires patience, and holistic data assessment, while we stay the course,” Collins asserted.

                            Collins emphasized the challenge of discerning meaningful trends in economic data, cautioning that “it is difficult to extract the signal from the noise.”

                            “If the improvement is fleeting, further tightening could be warranted,” she warned.

                            Most notably, Collins was reluctant to embrace the notion that recent improvements in economic indicators necessarily signal a taming of inflationary pressures.

                            “There are promising developments, but given the continued strength in demand, my view is that it is just too early to take the recent improvements as evidence that inflation is on a sustained path back to 2%,” she said.

                             

                            ECB Kazimir prefers to hike next week, and take a breather thereafter

                              ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir offered two distinct pathways for the central bank’s next move, strongly advocating for a 25 bps rate hike in the upcoming meeting next week.

                              Kazimir laid out the two scenarios: either to pause during the September meeting and opt for a “hopefully final” hike in October or December, or to proceed with a 25 basis point increase immediately, and “take a breather thereafter.”

                              “The second option seems preferable, reasonable, to me,” Kazimir emphatically stated. According to him, taking the latter route would be a “more straight forward and efficient solution,” providing the markets with clearer signals. Furthermore, it would allow policymakers additional time to confirm that inflation is moving towards the 2% target in a sustainable manner.

                              Kazimir’s recommendation comes at a time when there are increasing uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook. He acknowledged that “forecasts for inflation and economic growth are yet to be updated,” but insisted on taking pre-emptive action. “It is, therefore, necessary to take one more step. As they say, better to be safe than sorry,” he remarked.

                              Eurozone retail sales down -0.2% mom in Jul, EU fell -0.3% mom

                                Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.2% mom in July, matched expectations. Volume of retail trade decreased by -1.2% mom for automotive fuels, while it increased by 0.4% mom for food, drinks and tobacco and by 0.5% mom for non-food products.

                                EU retail sales decreased -0.3% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Denmark and Ireland (both -2.3%), the Netherlands (-1.4%) and Luxembourg (-1.3%). The highest increases were observed in Portugal (+1.1%), Sweden (+1.0%) and Cyprus (+0.8%).

                                 

                                 

                                Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

                                ECB Knot: A further hike still a possibility, but not a certainty

                                  ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot made it clear that reaching 2% inflation target by the end of 2025 is non-negotiable. “I continue to think that hitting our inflation target of 2% at the end of 2025 is the bare minimum we have to deliver,” said Knot.

                                  Knot didn’t rule out the possibility of further tightening on at September 14 meeting. “We’ve reached the finessing phase of the tightening cycle,” he noted. “Tightening—a further hike—is still a possibility, but not a certainty.”

                                  The ECB member also underscored the importance of wage growth in achieving the central bank’s inflation target. According to him, “It’s quite crucial in the disinflation process toward 2% by the end of 2025 that wage growth decelerates visibly.”

                                  Knot expressed concerns about current wage agreements, stating that they are “still pretty far off longer-run compatibility with a 2% inflation target plus half a percent productivity growth.”

                                   

                                  ECB Villeroy: Keeping rates sufficiently long counts more than hikes

                                    ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau refrained from detailing specific plans for the upcoming September 14 meeting. But he added, “I’m convinced we are close or very close to the high point of interest rates.”

                                    Also, “In our fight against inflation, maintaining rates for a sufficiently long period now counts for more than further significant rises”, he said.

                                    Villeroy also weighed in on inflation and economic growth trends, asserting that inflation passed its peak at the start of the year.” He added that recent fluctuations in oil prices “should not change the underlying dis-inflationary trend.” i

                                    As for growth, Villeroy offered a measured outlook. “For the entire euro zone, we don’t see a recession today,” he noted. “The picture for France and the euro zone is slightly positive growth, slower growth,” Villeroy added.

                                    Japan’s Kanda flags “high urgency” as Dollar bears 148 Yen

                                      Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, issued a strong warning as Dollar approaches 148 yen, marking a high for this year.

                                      Kanda stated, “We are closely monitoring the situation, with a high sense of urgency. If such moves continue, the government will take appropriate measures, and all options are on the table.”

                                      These remarks are the first significant warning since the Ten dropped below the 145-per-dollar mark in mid-August. Since then, Japanese authorities had been relatively silent.

                                      With the declared “high sense of urgency”, Japan has effectively put currency traders on alert for potential intervention or other policy moves. The “all options are on the table” comment raises the possibility of multiple policy actions, ranging from more verbal warnings to more market interventions to curb yen’s fall.

                                      BoJ’s Takata signals new dawn in wage-price cycle

                                        BoJ board member Hajime Takata highlighted in a speech today the significant shifts in firms’ behavior on price-setting and wages, leading to a budding “virtuous cycle between wages and prices” in Japan.

                                        The existence of the virtuous wage-price cycle, if it sustains, could give BoJ more room to navigate its monetary policy and prompt an exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy, particularly if it’s accompanied by “proactive and forward-looking efforts by firms” and appropriate “policy responses by the government.”

                                        “My understanding is that, on the whole, firms’ price-setting behavior has changed from that observed during the deflation period,” Takata said. This shift in behavior indicates that Japanese firms, traditionally cautious in raising prices, are beginning to pass on increased costs to consumers.

                                        The significant point here is not merely the change but also the why of the change. According to Takata, firms’ new willingness to adjust selling prices upwards is “likely because consumption has been solid even when prices have been rising, underpinned by standby funds that accumulated during the pandemic and by pent-up demand.”

                                        Another key takeaway is the substantial change in firms’ wage-setting behavior. “As reflected in the results of the annual spring labor-management wage negotiations this year, firms’ wage-setting behavior has changed, leading to wage increases and moves to pass on higher wage costs to selling prices,” Takata highlighted. This wage growth has, in turn, boosted consumer sentiment, potentially setting the stage for a self-sustaining cycle of growth and inflation.

                                        What financial markets should keep an eye on are the upcoming annual spring labor-management wage negotiations. Takata expects a “relatively high wage growth rate,” given that labor shortages and high inflation rates are likely to continue.

                                        Full speech of BoJ Takata here.

                                        BoC to pause today, EUR/CAD down in consolidation pattern

                                          BoC is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rate of 5.00% today. This expected pause in rate adjustments comes on the heels of surprising economic contraction in Canada, with the GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of -0.2% in Q2. The contraction signals the onset of economic slowdown, a stark contrast to the relatively robust performance seen in previous quarters.

                                          Although July’s inflation rate of 3.3% remains well above BoC’s target, weakening economic backdrop is likely to bolster policymakers’ confidence that inflation will gradually fall back to target over time. The slower economy could apply downward pressure on prices, providing the central bank with some breathing room to keep rates unchanged for now.

                                          EUR/CAD’s decline since last week suggests that recovery from 1.4482 has completed at 1.4822 already, ahead of 1.4879 resistance. For now, price actions from 1.4879 are seen as a consolidation pattern only, and thus, rise from 1.4280 should resume after this pattern completes. Hence, while deeper fall is in favor in the near term as long as 1.4700 resistance holds, downside should be contained by 100% projection of 1.4879 to 1.4482 from 1.4822 at 1.4425.

                                          On a broader scale, price actions from 1.5111 are seen as a corrective pattern only and the up trend from 1.2867 is not over. The lingering question is whether the rise from 1.4280 constitutes the second leg of a medium-term pattern or signifies a resumption of the upward trend. More clarity on this could emerge once the current consolidation phase from 1.4879 completes.