Gold breaks 1900, upside acceleration ahead?

    Gold’s rally resumes today and hits as high as 1913.79 so far, breaking 1900 handle. It’s now eyeing 1916.30 resistance. Break there will extend current rise from 1682.60 to 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

    Also, it should be pointed out that, firstly, sustained break of 1916.30 should confirm that whole correction from 2074.84 (2020 high) has completed at 1682.60, after defending 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84. Secondly, sustained break of 1946.57 would likely bring upside acceleration.

    In this case, Gold could be quickly shot up to 161.8% projection at 2066.74, which is close to 2074.84 high.

    Fed Bowman support rate hike in March, but size depends on data

      Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech, ” I support raising the federal funds rate at our next meeting in March and, if the economy evolves as I expect, additional rate increases will be appropriate in the coming months.”

      However, “I will be watching the data closely to judge the appropriate size of an increase at the March meeting,” she added.

      “In the coming months, we need to take the next step, which is to begin reducing the Fed’s balance sheet by ceasing the reinvestment of maturing securities already held in the portfolio,” she added. “Returning the balance sheet to an appropriate and manageable level will be an important additional step toward addressing high inflation.”

      Full speech here.

      Bundesbank: German economy to decline in Winter, pick up again in Spring

        Bundesbank said in the latest monthly report that German economic output is likely to decline noticeably again in the winter quarter of 2022.

        But economic prospects are “good”. It said, “in view of the very good demand situation, the German economy should pick up speed again in the spring, provided that the pandemic subsides and the supply bottlenecks continue to ease.”

        “Thus, from today’s perspective, the economic outlook is only slightly less favorable than expected in the projections from December 2021, despite the increased burden caused by the pandemic and high inflation,”conclude the experts.

        Full release here.

        UK PMI Manufacturing unchanged at 57.3, services jumped to 60.2

          UK PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 57.3 in February, below expectation of 57.5. PMI Services surged from 54.1 to 60.8, above expectation of 55.2, an 8-month high. PMI Composite rose from 54.2 to 60.2, also an 8-month high.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

          “The latest PMI surveys indicate a resurgent economy in February, as business activity leapt as COVID-19 containment measures were relaxed.

          “With the PMI’s gauge of output growth accelerating markedly in February and cost pressures intensifying to the second-highest on record, the odds of an increasingly aggressive policy tightening have shortened, with a third back-to-back rate rise looking increasingly inevitable in March.

          “However, the indications of a growing plight for manufacturers will need to be watched, and the service sector’s new business index will need to be monitored for signs of the demand revival losing steam. Given the rising cost of living, higher energy prices and increased uncertainty caused by the escalating crisis in Ukraine, downside risks to the demand outlook have risen.”

          Full release here.

          Eurozone PMI manufacturing dipped to 58.4, but services jumped to 55.8

            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dipped slightly from 58.7 to 58.4 in February, below expectation of 58.7. PMI Services, on the other hand, jumped from 51.1. to 55.8, above expectation of 51.7. PMI Composite rose from 52.3 to 55.8, a 5-month high.

            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

            “The eurozone economy regained momentum in February as an easing of virus-fighting restrictions led to renewed demand for many consumer services, such as travel, tourism and recreation, and helped alleviate supply bottlenecks. Business optimism in the outlook has likewise improved as companies look to the further reopening of the economy, encouraging increased hiring.

            “However, although easing, supply constraints remain widespread and continue to cause rising backlogs of work. As such, demand has again outstripped supply, handing pricing power to producers and service providers. At the same time, soaring energy costs and rising wages have added to inflationary pressures, resulting in the largest rise in selling prices yet recorded in a quarter of a century of survey data history.

            “The strength of the rebound in business activity signalled by the PMI provides welcome evidence that the economy has so far shown encouraging resilience in the face of the Omicron wave, but the intensification of inflationary pressures will add to speculation of an increasing hawkish stance at the ECB.”

            Full release here.

            Germany PMI composite rose to 56.2, continued to regain momentum

              Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped from 59.8 to 58.5 in February, below expectation of 59.4. PMI Services rose from 52.2 to 56.6 in February, above expectation of 53.2, highest in six months. PMI Composite rose from 53.8 to 56.2, also the highest in six months.

              Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director, at IHS Markit said:

              “The German economy continued to regain momentum in February following December’s brief stagnation in output growth. Overall activity rose the most since last August, driven this time by the services sector as manufacturing production increased more slowly than in January, when it had provided the main impetus.

              “Although goods production rose at a softer pace, data on new orders showed the fastest rise in six months. Moreover, supply chain pressures appeared to ease further as average lead times lengthened to the least extent since November 2020.

              “Inflationary pressures remained strong, however. Overall input prices rose at a similar rate as at the turn of the year, despite the slowest rate of inflation in manufacturing for a year. Meanwhile, prices charged for goods and services increased at the second-fastest rate on record.”

              Full release here.

              France PMI composite rose to 57.6, strongest since last June

                France PMI Manufacturing rose from 55.5 to 57.6 in February, above expectation of 55.5, highest in 7 months. PMI Services rose from 53.1 to 57.9, above expectation of 53.5, highest in 49 months. PMI Composite rose from 52.7 to 57.4, highest in 8 months.

                Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said:

                “The slump in January proved to be short-lived as business activity growth accelerated sharply in February to its strongest since last June. Now that the trajectory of COVID-19 in France is on the downturn, this should continue to facilitate greater activity levels across both sectors. Indeed, anecdotal evidence from our survey panel suggests that business confidence is improving and supporting demand conditions.

                “However, the economic themes for 2022 will be focused on supply chains and inflation, which seem a long way off normalising based on the latest PMI survey. Supplier delivery times lengthened sharply once again during February, while input cost inflation remains stubbornly elevated. Sources of inflation are broad – our panel members reported rising prices for a multitude of inputs, and these are now being compounded by rising utility costs and wages.

                “We’re still yet to see these issues dent output, demand and employment, but it will take prudent macroeconomic management from policymakers to alleviate supply-side pressures without harming the demand-side of the economy.”

                Full release here.

                Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.9 in Feb, services dropped to 42.7

                  Japan PMI Manufacturing dripped from 55.4 to 52.9 in February, below expectation of 55.0. PMI Services dropped sharply from 47.6 to 42.7, worst reading since May 2020. PMI Composite dropped from 49.9 to 44.6.

                  Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

                  “Activity at Japanese private sector businesses contracted sharply during February as the Omicron variant of COVID-19 led to record case numbers and renewed restrictions in Japan. The decline was the second in successive months though was the sharpest recorded for 20 months and came amid the steepest downturn in the services sector since the first wave of the pandemic in May 2020. Moreover, manufacturers signalled a reduction in output for the first time in five months, though the rate of contraction was considerably softer than that seen in the dominant services sector, and was only mild overall.

                  “Private sector firms also noted a decrease in aggregate new business for the first time since September, largely driven by domestic reductions while new export orders broadly stagnated. Firms continued to report that rising input prices and material shortages, notably in fuel and metals continued to dampen private sector activity. In fact, February saw the strongest rise in average cost burdens since August 2008.

                  “Companies were optimistic that activity would improve in the year ahead, though the continued resurgence of COVID-19 had clouded the outlook and drove optimism to a six-month low.”

                  Full release here.

                  Australia PMI composite jumped to 55.9, economy bounced back quickly

                    Australia PMI Manufacturing rose from 55.1 to 57.6 in February. PMI Services jumped from 46.6 to 56.4, an 8-month high. PMI Composite rose from 46.7 to 55.9, also an 8-month high.

                    Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said:

                    “The Australian economy bounced back quickly in February, according to the IHS Markit Flash Australia Composite PMI, after contracting sharply at the start of 2022, hit by the COVID-19 Omicron wave.

                    “Demand and output both returned to growth, boding well for hiring activity in February. That said, shortages of input materials and labour persisted as issues for private sector firms. This led to input prices continuing to increase sharply while selling price inflation hit a record according to the latest PMI survey. While this perhaps comes as no surprise in the initial recovery phase from the latest COVID-19 wave, the lingering impact on overall inflation and wages will have to be closely followed.

                    “Business confidence amongst private sector firms improved once again in February after briefly dipping in January, reflecting the short-lived nature of the latest COVID-19 wave, which was a positive sign.”

                    Full release here.

                    Canada retail sales dropped -1.8% mom in Dec, to rebound by 2.4% in Jan

                      Canada retail sales dropped -1.8% mom to CAD 57.0B in December, better than expectation of -2.1%. Sales were down in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 62.9% of retail trade. Excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts, sales dropped -2.4% mom.

                      For Q4, retail sales were up 1.7%, marking its second consecutive quarterly increase.

                      Advance estimate suggests sales rose 2.4% in January.

                      Full release here.

                      UK retail sales rose 1.9% mom in Jan, ex-fuel sales rose 1.7% mom

                        UK retail sales volume grew 1.9% mom in January, well above expectation of 1.0% mom. Ex-fuel sales rose 1.7% mom, above expectation of 1.2% mom. Comparing with the sale month a year earlier, retail sales rose 9.1% yoy while ex-fuel sales rose 7.2% yoy.

                        Comparing with prepandemic level in February 2020, retail sales was 3.6% above that level while ex-fuel sales was 4.4% above.

                        Full release here.

                        Japan CPI core slowed to 0.2% yoy in Jan, CPI core core dropped to -1.1% yoy

                          Japan all item CPI slowed from 0.8% yoy to 0.5% yoy in January, below expectation of 0.6% yoy. CPI core (all item less fresh food) dropped from 0.5% yoy to 0.2% yoy, below expectation of 0.3% yoy. CPI core-core (all item less fresh food and energy), dropped from -0.7% yoy to -1.1% yoy, below expectation of -0.7% yoy.

                          Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said recent prices rises were “driven mostly by increases in energy costs”, though forex moves also has had some impact. He added, “if inflation rises before improvement in job market, wage hikes kick in, that could affect consumption.”

                          Fed Mester: Appropriate to hike in March, and follow with further increases in coming months

                            Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said yesterday, “I believe it will be appropriate to move the funds rate up in March and follow with further increases in the coming months.”

                            “If by mid-year, I assess that inflation is not going to moderate as expected, then I would support removing accommodation at a faster pace over the second half of the year,” she added.

                            Mester still expects inflation to remain above 2% this year and next. Moderation in inflation is “conditioned on the FOMC taking appropriate action to transition away from the current emergency levels of accommodation.”

                            “We will need to convey the overall trajectory of policy and give the rationale for our policy decisions based on our assessment of the outlook and risks around the outlook, which are informed by economic and financial developments,” Mester said. “This change in communications will provide a better sense of the FOMC’s policy reaction function and should not be interpreted as the FOMC backing away from transparency.”

                            Fed Bullard: We’re at risk that inflation won’t dissipate

                              St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warned during a panel talk at Columbia University, “we’re at more risk now than we’ve been in a generation that this (inflation) could get out of control.”

                              One scenario would be, “a new surprise that hits us that we can’t anticipate right now, but we would have even more inflation,” he said. “That’s the kind of situation that we want to … make sure it doesn’t occur.”

                              “Overall, I’d say there’s been too much emphasis and too much mindshare devoted to the idea that inflation will dissipate at some point in the future,” Bullard said. “We’re at risk that inflation won’t dissipate, and 2022 will be the second year in a row of quite high inflation. So that’s why given this situation, the Fed should move faster and more aggressively than we would have in other circumstances.”

                              ECB Lane: Medium-term inflation expectations increasing towards 2% target over the last year

                                ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said in a speech that “medium-term inflation expectations have been increasing from a low base towards the two per cent inflation target over the last year, even before the energy shock.”

                                “There are several factors indicating that the excessively-low inflation environment that prevailed from 2014 to2019 (a period over which inflation averaged just 0.9 per cent) might not re-emerge even after the pandemic cycle is over,” he added.

                                “If the medium-term inflation dynamic is anticipated to stabilise around the two per cent target, this will permit a gradual normalisation of monetary policy,” he said. “Whereas if inflation threatens to persist significantly above the two per cent target over the medium term, a tightening of monetary policy will be required.”

                                Full speech here.

                                US initial jobless claims rose to 248k, above expectation

                                  US initial jobless claims rose 23k to 248k in the week ending February 12, above expectation of 219k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -11k to 243k.

                                  Continuing claims dropped -25k to 1593k in the week ending February 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -8k to 1626k.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Gold to press 1900 as rally resumes

                                    Gold’s rally resumes today by taking out 1879.24 temporary top and hits as high as 1893.24 so far, just shy of 1900 handle. Further rally is now expected as long as 1844.30 support holds. Current rise is seen as part of the whole rally from 1682.60. Gold should break through 1916.30 resistance to 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

                                    Meanwhile, it should be noted that firstly, firm break of 1916.30 should confirm completion of the correction from 2074.84 at at 1682.60. Secondly, further break of 1946.57 will suggest medium term up side acceleration. In this case, retest of 2074.84 high should be quickly within reach.

                                    Australia employment grew 12.9k driven by part-time jobs, hours worked fell

                                      Australia employment grew 12.9k in January, better than expectation of 0k. Full-time jobs dropped -17k but part-time jobs rose 30k.

                                      Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%, but participation rate rose 0.1% to 66.2%. Monthly hours worked, however, dropped -8.8% mom.

                                      Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, “While we again saw higher than usual numbers of people taking annual leave – even more so than last year – the 8.8 per cent fall in hours worked in January 2022 also reflected much higher than usual numbers of people on sick leave.”

                                      “As with earlier rapid changes in the labour market during the pandemic, hours continue to be much more affected than employment. This reflects people working reduced or no hours, without necessarily losing their jobs.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Japan monthly trade deficit at 8-yr high in Jan, as imports surged to record

                                        Japan exports rose 9.6% yoy to JPY 6332B in January. Imports surged 39.6% yoy to record JPY 8523B. Trade balance came in as JPY -2191B deficit, largest single month deficit since January 2014.

                                        Exports to China dropped -5.4% yoy, first contraction in 19 months. Imports from China rose 23.7% yoy, highest in four months. Exports to US rose 11.5% yoy.

                                        In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 0.1% mom to JPY 7355B. Imports rose 4.9% mom to JPY 8287B. Trade balance was at JPY -933B deficit.

                                        Fed Kashkari: Let’s not overdo policy normalization

                                          Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that it’s “appropriate” to start normalizing policy. However, he cautioned “let’s not overdo it”. “If we raise rates really aggressively, we run the risk of slamming the brakes on the economy, putting the economy into recession, which would then — we’d be crashing back down into this low inflation environment,” he warned.

                                          Kashkari also revealed that he and his family had COVID earlier this year, and “a lot of families are experiencing what we just experienced.” He added “this will be a while” before people can be comfortably living with the coronavirus.