Australian Dollar lifted by large trade surplus and surge in building approvals

    AUD trades broadly higher today and it’s still extending the rally at the time of writing. Solid economic data provide some support. Technically, though, AUD remains in down trend against USD and CAD despite the rebound.

    Australia trade surplus came in at AUD 1.53B in March, widened from AUD 1.35B in February. That’s also much larger than expectation of AUD 0.68B. Exports jumped 1% to AUD 34.84B, with strong 8% growth in n non-monetary gold to AUD 131m. Imports rose 1% to AUD 33.31B,. Non-monetary gold imports jumped 28% to AUD 232m.

    Building approvals rose 2.6% mom in Mach, much higher than expectation of 1.0% mom. Justin Lokhorst, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS noted that “the strength in the total dwellings series is being driven by approvals for private sector houses, which have now risen for 13 consecutive months.” And, “private sector house approvals are now at their highest level since 2003, in trend terms.”

    AUD/USD is trying to draw support from 0.7500 key level for the moment. While it’s firm elsewhere, AUD/USD needs to break through 0.7583 minor resistance to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bearish.

    Germany PMI: Private sector pulled back sharply, but Q1 still robust

      German PMI manufacturing dropped to 58.4 in March, down from 60.6, below expectaiton of 59.8. That’s an 8-month low.

      German PMI services dropped to 54.2 in March, down from 55.3 and missed expectation of 55.0. That’s a 7-month low.

      Here is the full release: Germany PMI drops to eight-month low in March.

      Quote from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit:

      “Growth in Germany’s private sector has pulled back sharply since the start of the year, with the pace of expansion in March well below January’s near seven-year high.

      “However, with the strong expansions seen at the end of last year and in the opening months of 2018 already baked in, official numbers are expected to show robust GDP growth in the opening quarter. Latest IHS Markit forecasts show growth picking up from the somewhat disappointing 0.6% seen in the fourth quarter of 2017.

      “Interestingly, the survey’s anecdotal evidence also found an unusually high prevalence of staff sickness affecting business activity, to suggest that the extent of the slowdown in March might be partly due to temporary factors.

      “It is manufacturing that has lost the most momentum, with growth in goods production slowing particularly sharply to its weakest since the start of 2017. The headline manufacturing PMI, however, is somewhat supported by the suppliers’ delivery times component, which has hit a fresh record-low – its third in the past four months.

      “Capacity pressures remain a theme, with firms noting not only bottlenecks in supply chains but also a solid and accelerated increase in backlogs of work. This bodes well for strong job creation continuing in the months ahead.”

      Australia AiG services dropped to 42.5, all sectors in contraction, employment decreased significantly

        Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped to 42.5 in August, down from 44.0. Looking at some details, employment plunged -7.9 pts to 39.4. But sales were steady, down -0.1 to 43.3. New orders also dropped -1.7 to 45.2. Average wages dropped -2.4 to 43.4.

        All sectors remained in contraction in trend terms. AiG added, “the introduction of stage 4 restrictions in the greater Melbourne area following some optimism in July weighed heavily on business activity in Victoria and the impact was felt across other states. All indicators were firmly negative for August and employment decreased significantly from the previous month.”

        Full release here.

        DOW hits new record as focus turns to non-farm payrolls

          US non-farm payroll report will be a main focus today. Markets are expecting strong 950k growth in April, with unemployment rate down from 6.0% to 5.7%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.1% mom. Looking at related data, ISM manufacturing dropped from 59.6 to 55.1, but stayed well in expansion. ISM services employment rose from 57.2 to 58.8. ADP employment showed 742k growth. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped to 560k. Overall, it’s just a matter of how strong the job market rebound had been.

          DOW outperformed other major US indices and surged 0.93% to new record high at 34548.53 overnight. The strong close suggests that up trend is maintaining solid momentum. We’d expect current rise to target 100% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 37129.47 next. In any case, outlook will stay bullish as long as 33687.01 support holds.

          Australia unemployment rate jumped to 22-yr high, PM unveils job trainer support, AUD/JPY dips

            Australia employment rose 210.8k to 12.33m in June, above expectation of 112.5k rise. Full time job dropped -38.1k to 8.49m. Part-time jobs, on the other hand, surged 249k to 3.84m. Unemployment rise rose 0.4% to 7.4%, matched expectations. That’s the highest level since November 1998. Nevertheless, the positive sign is that participation rate jumped back by 1.3% to 64.0%, as people are back in the job markets.

            Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled today a new AUD 2B JobTrainer plan aimed at reskilling and upskilling Australians. He said, the program “doesn’t just support those who have left the workforce through no fault of their own, but that also is supporting school leavers as well at the end of this year.”

            AUD/JPY weakens mildly after the release but stays above 4 hour 55 EMA. We’re viewing the sideway price actions from 72.52 as the second leg of the pattern form 76.78 high only. That is, we’d expect at least another decline before the pattern completes. Break of 73.98 support should target 72.52 and below.

            Evans: Fed should embrace inflation above 2%, 50% of time

              Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Monday that Fed’s policy has been “successful” in achieving the maximum employment mandate. It’s “less successful” regarding the inflation objective. And to fix this, he added, “Fed must be willing to embrace inflation modestly above 2 percent 50 percent of the time.” For him, he would “communicate comfort” with core inflation at 2.5%, as long as there is “no obvious upward momentum” while the path back to 2% can be “well managed”.

              For now, Evans is still expecting that “some further rate increases may be appropriate over time”. He expects growth to be at around 1.75-2.00% this year. Still he maintained that current patient stance is appropriate given the “heightened uncertainty” including US-China trade war. He also emphasized that “if activity softens more than expected or if inflation and inflation expectations run too low, then policy may have to be left on hold – or perhaps even loosened – to provide the appropriate accommodation to obtain our objectives.”

              BoJ’s Ueda reiterates patience in maintaining ultra-loose policy

                BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has once again underscored the central bank’s commitment to maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, emphasizing the need for patience in the face of uncertain inflation dynamics.

                Speaking to the parliament, Ueda noted, “Trend inflation is likely to gradually accelerate toward our 2% inflation target through fiscal 2025. But this needs to be accompanied by a positive wage-inflation cycle.”

                “Uncertainty on whether Japan will see such a positive wage-inflation cycle is high,” he added.

                Addressing the behavior of 10-year JGB yields, Ueda expressed that he does not foresee a sharp rise above the 1% reference level, even under upward pressure.

                Looking ahead, Ueda clarified the bank’s position on potentially ending its Yield Curve Control and negative interest rate policies, stating, “We will consider ending YCC, negative rate if we can expect inflation to stably, and sustainably hit the price target.”

                He added that the order of adjustments to the policy would be contingent on various factors, including economic conditions, price movements, and market developments.

                Japan’s PPI slowed to 0.0% yoy in Dec, reflecting subsidy effects

                  Japan’s PPI records a slowdown from 0.3% yoy to 0.0% yoy in December, above expectation of -0.3% yoy. Nevertheless, this figure represents the lowest PPI reading since -0.9% yoy decline in February 2021.

                  The deceleration in Japan’s wholesale prices can be attributed partially to the government’s intervention in the form of subsidies aimed at curbing petrol and utility bills. According to a BoJ official, these subsidies reduced wholesale inflation rate by approximately 0.9 percentage points.

                  In terms of trade-related price indices, there was a slight increase in export price index from 1.0% yoy to 1.1% yoy. Import price index improved from -10.1% yoy to -9.5% yoy.

                  On a month-over-month basis, the PPI rose by 0.3% mom, Meanwhile, export price index saw a marginal decline of -0.1% mom, and import price index was flat.

                  Full Japan PPI release here.

                  USD/CHF forming head and shoulder bottom

                    USD/CHF is a pair to watch for the rest of US session as it’s pressing 0.9490 resitsance. Break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern. LS: 0.9254, H: 0.9186, RS: 0.9337. In that case, further rise would be seen to 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9464. And as USD/CHF could have reversed its down trend, there would be prospect of a test on 0.9977 further down the road. But agian, that’s subject to a solid break of 0.9490 first.

                    Fed Mester: Rate hikes are not coming any time soon

                      Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC “the thought about raising interest rates is not a near-term consideration at all.” Instead, “we’re going to think about the decision coming up, which is about the asset purchases, and then as those wind down we’ll have time to assess where the economy is.”

                      “I don’t think that interest rate hikes are coming any time soon because I don’t think we’ll reach our goals which are maximum employment and inflation at and above 2% for some time,” Mester said.

                      “So far the medium-run inflation expectations and longer-run inflation expectations are still at levels consistent with our 2% inflation goal,” she said. “We don’t want to get into a situation where they continue to move up because that would be a signal that we may have to do an adjustment.”

                      NZ ANZ business confidence improved to 33.2, with mixed inflation signals

                        New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence climbed from 30.8 to 33.2 in December. Looking into the specifics, own activity outlook improved from 26.3 to 29.3, indicating positive sentiment about future business conditions. However, investment intentions dropped from 4.5 to 2.7, suggesting some hesitancy in capital expenditures. Employment intentions rose from 5.4 to 7.0, reflecting moderately stronger inclination towards hiring.

                        In terms of pricing, there was a noticeable increase, with pricing intentions moving from 46.8 to 50.2. This rise implies that more businesses are planning to increase their prices, which could contribute to inflationary pressures. Similarly, cost expectations saw an upward movement from 73.9 to 76.2, indicating rising costs for businesses. On the other hand, inflation expectations showed a decline from 4.79% to 4.61%.

                        ANZ commented on the mixed nature of the inflation indicators, as they do not present an encouraging outlook for inflation. With more data expected before RBNZ’s February decision, this survey’s results might not be among the most favorable. While recent GDP data showed RBNZ’s measures gaining more traction than previously understood, the extent of economic downturn required to bring inflation down to the 2% target remains an unresolved question.

                        Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                        Canada Freeland: With steel tariffs in place, ratification of USMCA would be very, very problematic

                          Despite all the talks and rumors that the US is close to lifting steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrysita Freeland left no hints on the progress after she met US Trade representative Robert Lighthizer yesterday.

                          Freeland acknowledged that there were discussions regrading the tariffs but and details were provided. Instead, she just noted “Canada believes in the new [USMCA] agreement that we reached with the United States and Mexico,” and “we very much hope it can be ratified in all of our countries, although the domestic processes are up to each country.” She emphasized, “when it comes to Canada, it is certainly the case for us that as long as the tariffs remain in place, ratification would be very, very problematic.”

                          Mexico’s chief North American trade negotiator JesĂşs Seade said earlier this week “Very quickly we have made a tremendous progress and I’m looking to an early resolution on the basis of lifting the tariff, no quotas. We were getting close to an agreement.” Mexican Secretary of Economy Graciela Márquez ColĂ­n also said “if we get similar proposals we might go into a trilateral, but that’s just a possibility”. But Freeland said she would “leave it to the Mexicans and the Americans to comment.”

                          US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told a Senate Committee yesterday that “the president has instructed us to try to figure out a solution” on steel and aluminum tariffs.” And, “this is a very important part of passing USMCA which is a very important economic agreement for two of our largest trading partners… I think that we are close to an understanding with Mexico and Canada. I’ve spoken to the finance ministers. Ambassador Lighthizer is leading the effort on this, but I can assure you it is a priority of ours.”

                          US initial jobless claims dropped to 215k, better than expectation

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -18k to 215k in the week ending February 25, better than expectation of 235k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -5k to 230.5k.

                            Continuing claims rose 2k to 1476k in the week ending February 19. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -36k to 1540k, lowest since April 4, 1970.

                            Full release here.

                            Japan exports had 8th straight month of double-digit decline in Aug

                              In non-seasonally adjusted term, Japan’s expected dropped -14.8% yoy to JPY 5232B in August. That’s the 8th straight month of double-digit decline, as well as the 21st month of contraction. It’s the worst run since the 23-month contraction through July 1987. Exports are generally expected to stay weak and might not reach pre-pandemic level until a least early 2022. Imports dropped -20.8% yoy to JPY 4984B. Trade surplus came in at JPY 248B.

                              In seasonally adjusted term, exports rose 5.9% mom to JPY 5580B. Imports rose 0.1% mom to JPY 5230B. Trade surplus widened to JPY 350B.

                              RBA Debelle: Technology dispute could have larger impacts than tariffs

                                RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said in a speech today that the direct effects of US-China tariffs “has not been all that large”. However, the larger impact has been the uncertainty generated by the dispute. The uncertainty takes “two forms”. Firstly, there was uncertainty about the “size and incidence” of tariffs. Secondly, it’s unsure how “technology dispute” will be resolved.

                                Debelle also warned that “it is plausible that the effect of the technology dispute will be larger than that of the tariffs” And, “the technology dispute raises the possibility that any business involved in the technology production chain will have to choose between East and West rather than selling into a global market.”

                                Also, he said current trade dispute would have a “large and long-lasting impact” on the “system of rules-based trade”. And, “The China–US dispute casts serious doubt on that. We can also see that manifest in the US–Europe trade issues, as well as those between South Korea and Japan.” Also, “trade is being used as the bargaining tool of choice, including for issues that don’t have much to do with trade.”

                                Debelle’s full speech here.

                                China’s exported fell -7.5% yoy in May, trade surplus shrank to USD 65.8B

                                  In May, China’s exports significantly contracted, defying expectations. The country’s exports shrunk by -7.5% yoy to USD 283.5B, which was far below expectation of -0.4% yoy contraction. This marks the second-lowest export value since May 2022, with the only lower figure being the seasonally affected USD 213.8B recorded in February. Imports also contracted by -4.5% yoy to USD 217.7B, outperforming the forecasted 8.0% yoy contraction.

                                  However, the most striking observation comes in the form of China’s trade surplus. It fell sharply from USD 90.2B to USD 65.8B, defying the predicted figure of USD 94.2B. This represents the lowest level since the COVID-driven decline observed in April 2022.

                                  ECB Vasiliauskas pushes banking union, but Knot said risk reduction first

                                    ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot urged that risk must be reduced before the Eurozone banking union is shared more widely among member states. The measures under the union include bank deposit insurance scheme and streamlining liquidity provision for banks under resolution. Knot argued that “these elements all imply more public risk-sharing in (the European Monetary Union) as liability for bank failures in other countries is shared at the European level.” And he emphasized that ” risk-sharing should be preceded by sufficient risk-reduction.”

                                    Separately, another Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas reiterated the call for an “EU-wide banking union”. And he said that “allow for a centralized supervisory approach for all of the EU’s largest systemically important banks, regardless of host-country membership in the monetary union.” Also, he added that “we need to do a better job at convincing decision-makers in non-euro area countries to enter into the “close cooperation” regime (with the ECB).”

                                    ECB Draghi not dovish enough, EUR/USD rebounds after defending 1.1107 support

                                      Euro initially dives after ECB leaves door open for rate cut in the statement. But it quickly recovers as President Mario Draghi is not as dovish in the press conference. Most importantly, there was no discussion on rate cuts today. Additionally, no unanimity was achieved among policy makers regarding the next move, just “convergence” of views. The comments argue that there is a lack of urgency for any action. And, September’s decision could be live, depending on upcoming economic projections.

                                      On the economy, Draghi said slower growth outlook “mainly reflects the ongoing weakness in international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties, which are particularly affecting the euro area manufacturing sector.”On the other hand, “activity levels in the services and construction sectors are resilient and the labor market is still improving.”

                                      Nevertheless, risks “remain tilted to the downside, reflecting the prolonged presence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism, and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.” Incoming data continue to point to “somewhat slower growth” in Q2 and Q3.

                                      “Inflationary pressures remain muted and indicators of inflation expectations have declined.” But, over the medium term,”underlying inflation is expected to increase, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion, and stronger wage growth.”

                                      EUR/USD could have defended 1.1107 low after brief breach to 1.1101 resistance. Stronger rebound should be seen back to 1.1193/1.1282 resistance zone.

                                      Gold breaking out from triangle pattern, heading to 1400?

                                        Gold surges to as high as 1365.24 so far and is attempting to break out from recent triangle consolidation. Immediate focus is now on 1366.05 high, which is nor far away. Based on current momentum, break of 1366.05 should send gold to 61.8% projection of 1236.66 to 1366.05 from 1319.82 at 1399.78, which is close to 1400 handle.

                                        However, we’d pointed this out before, and would like to reiterate this point again. There are two resistance levels to overcome from a longer term point of view. Firstly, that’s 1375.15, 2016 high. Secondly, that 38.2% retracement of 1920.94 (2011 high) to 1046.54 (2015 low) at 1380.56. This 1375/80 zone is the real test for gold ahead.

                                        German EM Altmaier: We won’t let Washington dictate us with whom we can do business

                                          German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier launched strong attack on Trump for his tariffs and sanctions. He told Bild am Sonntag newspaper that “this trade war is slowing down and destroying economic growth – and it creates new uncertainties.”

                                          Meanwhile, the agreement between the EU and US “can only be first step”. Altmaier emphasized “Our goal is a global trade order with lower tariffs, less protectionism and open markets.”

                                          Regarding US sanctions on Iran, Altmaier also pledged the Germany and EU will continue to support companies doing business with Iran. He warned that “we won’t let Washington dictate us with whom we can do business and we therefore stick to the Vienna Nuclear Agreement so that Iran cannot build atomic weapons.”