Australia’s retail sales turnover registered a 0.9% mom growth in September to AUD 35.87B. This robust performance dwarfed the modest analyst expectations of a 0.3% mom growth. On an annual basis, sales turnover presented a rise of 2.0% yoy compared to the same month in the preceding year.

Speaking on the development, Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, elucidated, “The strong rise in September came from a diverse range of factors across the Retail industry.” He pinpointed the uncommonly warm onset of spring as a significant catalyst while technology and energy-conscious programs also had their roles.

However, while September’s figures paint a buoyant picture, Dorber pointed to a more restrained broader context.

“While the rise in September was the largest since January, subdued spending for most of 2023 means that underlying growth in Retail turnover remains historically low,” he said.

Adding weight to this perspective, he shared that “Retail turnover in trend terms is up only 1.5 per cent compared to September 2022 – the smallest trend growth over 12 months in the history of the series.”

Full Australia retail sales release here.

Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped sharply by -6.4 pts to 48.4 in January. Production dropped -0.6 to 51.9. Employment dropped -4.6 to 45.4. New orders dropped -8.0 to 51.3. Supplier deliveries dropped -15.6 to 37.8. Exports dropped -9.5 to 45.1. Input prices rose 4.0 to 82.3. Selling prices dropped -3.3 to 64.8. Wages rose 1.1 to 63.5.

Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group said: “Australia’s manufacturers reported a modest contraction in performance over December and January as businesses reported further disruptions to supply chains and as staff availability emerged as a major constraint on many businesses. Cost pressures were keenly felt with input prices continuing to rise and the selling prices index indicating only a partial recovery of these costs in the market.”

Full release here.

Australia NAB Business Confidence jumped sharply from -6 to 13 in September. Strong improvement was seen in New South Wales (up 52 pts to 27) and Victoria (up 16 pts to 5). Business Conditions, however, dropped from 14 to 5. Trading condition dropped from 20 to 10. Profitability condition dropped from 15 to 2. Employment confidence dropped from 9 to 1.

NAB said, “Interpreting this month’s results really depends if you are an optimist or a pessimist. Businesses are really looking forward to reopening, and confidence increased markedly on the back of NSW and Victoria’s reopening roadmaps. The rise in confidence suggests they see the roadmaps that have been announced as sufficient to allow activity to really rebound in the coming months.”

“Still, confidence is more about hope for the future than what is happening in the present. On that front, conditions really deteriorated which shows that lockdowns are taking a toll, despite the resilience the economy has shown through this period.”

Full release here.