Eurozone retail sales volume dropped -0.3% mom in Aug, EU down -0.2% mom

    Eurozone retail sales volume dropped -0.3% mom in August, matched expectations. Retail trade volume decreased by -0.8% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it increased by 0.2% for non-food products and by 3.2% for automotive fuels.

    EU retail sales volume dropped -0.2% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in the Netherlands (-2.2%), Germany (-1.3%) and Malta (-1.1%). The highest increases were observed in Slovenia (+7.0%), Luxembourg (+3.8%) and Ireland (+3.5%).

    Full release here.

    Fed Bostic: Economy can slow in a relatively orderly way

      Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program, “Inflation is high. It is too high. And we need to do all we can to make it come down.”

      He added the US need to have a “slowdown”, but “we are going to do all that we can at the Federal Reserve to avoid deep, deep pain.”

      “We’re still creating lots of jobs on a monthly basis, and so I actually think that there is some ability for the economy to absorb our actions and slow in a relatively orderly way,” he said.

      Australia AiG Performance of Services dropped sharply to 43.9, largest monthly decline since 2018

        Australia AiG Performance of Services dropped sharply to 43.9 in July, down from 52.2. The -8.3 pts fall is the largest monthly decline since July 2018. Reading below 50 signaled a return to contraction, as trading conditions for many businesses dived again.

        Looking at some details, among the business-oriented sectors, only wholesale trade reported positive results. Among the consumer-oriented segments, the large ‘health, education & community services’ sector was strongest. The retail trade sector continued to perform very weakly.

        Full release here.

        Northern Ireland DUP: Trap of the Irish backstop is the problem

          After rumors that Northern Ireland DUP has privately given conditional agreement to UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, its deputy leader Nigel Dodds echoed that support. Dodds said “We want to reach a consensus which respects the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom and which also works for our neighbours in the Republic of Ireland”. And, “the trap of the backstop is the problem,” he added. “There are ways forward which do not require this backstop and we need to see a willingness to explore such options.”

          Meanwhile EU and Ireland are stepping up preparations for no-deal Brexit. European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas confirmed that Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar had spoken yesterday. And, they had “looked forward to continuing close cooperation … including on intensifying no deal contingency action in the coming weeks”.

          BoE Vlieghe: Easing lockdown insufficient to bring back economic activity

            BoE MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe said in the annual report to Treasury Select Committee of Parliament, from different pandemic experiences, it’s “not just the economic lockdown that suppresses economic activity”. There’s also a “large behavioural response of households and firms to the prevalence of the virus, which suppresses demand for certain types of economic activity even without any lockdown measures in place.” Thus, “easing lockdown measures is not sufficient to bring back economic activity.”

            He also warned, “the longer the virus remains prevalent enough to affect patterns of consumption, investment and employment, the higher the likelihood that some sectors will not be able to return to their previous level of activity”. That would “imply that demand in other sectors needs to rise sufficiently to use up the resulting spare capacity in the labour force and in other inputs”. Such “reorientation of the economy towards a difference sectorial composition” is likely to be a slow process.

            “Based on these considerations, there is a material risk in my view that it could take several years for the economy to return to full capacity and inflation to return sustainably to target, even with monetary policy at its current settings.”

            Full report here.

             

            ECB Draghi: Persistence of uncertainties is leaving markets on economic sentiment

              Euro weakens broadly today even though ECB delivered little news with the rate decision and press conference. The main refinancing rate is kept at 0.00%. Marginal lending facility rate and deposit rate are kept at 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. Also, forward guidance is unchanged. ECB expects to keep key interest rates at present level “at least through the end of 2019”. No detail of the TLTRO III is provided as they will be released at one of the next meetings.

              President Mario Draghi’s overtone in the post meeting conference is dovish. He noted that incoming data “confirms slower growth momentum extending into the current year.” “Global headwinds continue to weigh on euro area growth developments”. Also, “persistence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets, is leaving marks on economic sentiment.”

              Meanwhile, risks surrounding growth outlook remain “tilted t the downside”. They’re “on account of the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.” Draghi also urged “other policy areas” to contribute more decisively to raise longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. Those include structure reforms and fiscal policies.

              Draghi’s press conference statement here.

              Brexit negotiations still ongoing, Varadkar hopes to complete today

                UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s spokesman said Brexit negotiations with EU were still ongoing with issues to be resolved. At the same time, discussions also continued with Conservative and Northern Ireland’s DUP MPs.

                Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar also said that “we are making progress but there are issues yet to be resolved and hopefully that can be done today.” “But if it’s not, there is still more time. October 31 is still a few weeks away and there is the possibility of an additional summit before that if we need one”.

                EU chief Brexit negotiator delayed the briefing to EU leaders to 1500GMT today, from 1200GMT.

                German Scholz: Sharp rise in coronavirus infections underlying the need of timely recovery fund

                  German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said, “The new normal in times of the coronavirus pandemic requires that we remain vigilant and adapt our daily routine to the development of the pandemic.”

                  “The sharp rise in infections also underlines the need to implement Europe’s ambitious recovery programme timely and to set the right course for Europe’s future,” adding that Germany wants to ensure that the fund is available in 2021. “It is key for the recovery that member states can use the funds when the crisis is still ongoing”.

                   

                  ECB Kazimir: PEPP will be terminated with the end of the pandemic

                    ECB Governing Council member said Peter Kazimir said “concerns about the cliff effect (of ending PEPP) cannot automatically mean demands for increasing the standard programs (APP)”. “There is no automatic formula,” he said. “We’ll be deciding according to conditions at the given time.”

                    He also said, the PEPP has been “functioning very well and naturally it is now in the final stage of its life cycle.” “It’s a special tool designed for a special situation, and it will be phased out when it’s not needed anymore,” he added. “The market seems to understand that this tool will be terminated with the end of the pandemic.”

                    “If inflation remains elevated next year because of supply bottlenecks, my concern is that it could spill into wage negotiations for the following year as well,” he said. But “we are not seeing this happening in key countries so far.”

                    Fed Powell stands firm: No rate cuts without greater confidence

                      In his semiannual Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks highlighted the necessity for Fed to await “greater confidence” in inflation’s sustainable movement towards 2 % target before considering any reduction in policy rates.

                      Powell acknowledged the policy rate is “likely at its peak” for the current cycle, and it’s appropriate for “dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.” However, he also stressed the “uncertain” economic outlook and noted that the path to 2% inflation is “not assured,”

                      The Fed Chair warned of the consequences of prematurely or excessively loosening policy, noting that such actions could jeopardize the progress made in inflation control, possibly necessitating “even tighter policy” in the future. Conversely, delaying or minimizing the reduction of policy restraint risks harming economic activity and employment.

                      Full remarks of Fed Powell here.

                      UK PMI composite fell to 46.0, heightened recession risk supports BoE pause

                        UK PMI Manufacturing sector had a slight uptick in September, moving from 43.0 to 44.2, surpassing expectations set at 43.0. Services PMI disappointed, recording a drop from 49.5 to 47.2, underperforming against the forecasted 49.0, marking a 32-month low. Consequently, PMI Composite followed suit, declining from 48.6 to 46.8, also registering a 32-month low.

                        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated, “The disappointing PMI survey results for September mean a recession is looking increasingly likely in the UK.”

                        The current PMI data aligns with a potential GDP contraction of over -0.4% on a quarterly basis. Williamson mentioned, “September’s downturn is the steepest since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009 barring only the pandemic lockdown months.”

                        A significant point of apprehension in the inflation framework remains wage growth. However, with the survey indicating the most significant employment decline since 2009, wage negotiation leverage appears to be dwindling swiftly.

                        Williamson believes the unsettling indications of heightened recession risk coupled with diminishing inflationary pressures are likely to have “added to calls to halt rate hikes” by BoE.

                        Full UK PMI release here.

                        Fed Williams: Recession risks not elevated, yield curve inversion points to modest growth

                          New York Fed President John Williams said overnight that the “most likely case” was for US economy to grow 2%, with low unemployment. To him, the probability of recession this year or next was “not elevated relative to any year”. He also downplayed the significance of yield curve inversion. He added “there’s a lot of reasons to think that it has been a recession predictor for reasons in the past that kind of don’t apply today.” And, it only “telling us that growth will be pretty modest”.

                          On monetary policy, Williams said short-term interest rate is “around neutral”. Meanwhile, “any development in the economy, whether it’s on the employment side or on the inflation side, that moved in a persistent way away from our objectives, one way or the other, would be a reason to rethink the path of policy going forward.”

                          Australia CBA PMI composite dropped to 40.7, increasing impact of coronavirus

                            Australia CBA PMI Manufacturing was very steady in March, just dropped -0.1 to 50.1. PMI Services, however, tumbled sharply from 49.0 to 39.8. Hence, PMI Composite dropped from 49.0 to 40.7.

                            CBA Chief Economist, Michael Blythe said: “The sharp deterioration in PMI readings during March underline the increasing impact of the coronavirus on the Australian economy. The services sector is being hit hard by the cancellation of events, general fears about social interaction and a very sharp decline in offshore demand as travel restrictions bite.

                            “The manufacturing sector is faring a little better. But the leading indicators are flashing warning signs. The deterioration in supplier delivery times is accelerating, highlighting the disruption to supply chains. And the lower Aussie dollar is pushing input prices up at a rapid rate”.

                            Full release here.

                            China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing unchanged at 50.8, economic challenges persist

                              China’s Caixin PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 50.8 in January, matched expectations. The sector showed modest production growth, although the overall sales expansion softened. Notably, this period marked the first rise in new export business in seven months, and business confidence reached a nine-month high. However, the employment sector continued to contract, and the market faced ongoing deflationary pressures.

                              Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, highlighted that despite the stability in manufacturing, the Chinese economy still grapples with “significant challenges”, including weak demand, employment pressures, and subdued market expectations. He emphasized that these issues are yet to see a “fundamental shift reversal”.

                              Full China Caixin PMI manufacturing release here.

                              US and China held top level trade calls on core issues

                                A phone call was held between US and China top trade negotiators this morning. Accord to statement of China’s Ministry of Commerce: “Both sides discussed resolving core issues of common concern, reached consensus on how to resolve related problems and agreed to stay in contact over remaining issues for a phase one agreement”.

                                Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin participated in the call. Also, joined were Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang and Ning Jizhe, vice chairman of China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission.

                                Yet, after another phone calls, there is no concrete news regarding the phase one trade deal. It’s reported that farm purchases and tariff rollbacks are currently the two sticky issues. It looks like officials from both sides are still targeting to complete the phase one by the end of the year. But negotiations could eventually drag on to next year.

                                Canada CPI jumped to 2.2% in Nov, ex-gasoline unchanged at 2.3%

                                  Canada CPI accelerated to 2.2% in November, up from 1.9% yoy, matched expectations. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 2.3%, unchanged from October’s reading. CPI common was unchanged at 1.9% yoy, matched expectations. CPI median rose to 2.4%, up from 2.2%, beat expectation of 2.2% yoy. CPI trimmed accelerated to 2.2% yoy, up from 2.1% yoy, matched expectations.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US PPI down -0.1% mom in Dec

                                    US PPI for final demand fell -0.1% mom in December, below expectation of 0.1% mom. PPI goods was down -0.4% mom while PPI services was unchanged. PPI less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.2% mom.

                                    For the 12-month period, PPI rose from 0.8% yoy to 1.0% yoy, below expectation of 1.3% yoy. PPI less foods, energy and trade services rose from 2.4% yoy to 2.5% yoy.

                                    Full US PPI release here.

                                    Canada retail sales rose 1.6% mom in Oct, to rise further 1.2% in Nov

                                      Canada retail sales rose 1.6% mom to CAD 57.6B in October, above expectation of 1.2% mom. Growth was led by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+2.2%), as new car dealer sales (+2.8%) rebounded. Sales increased in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 59.9% of retail trade. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 1.5% mom.

                                      According to advance estimate, retail sales rose 1.2% mom in November.

                                      Full release here.

                                      Canada CPI rose to 4.8% yoy in Dec, highest since 1991

                                        Canada CPI ticked up from 4.7% yoy to 4.8% yoy in December above expectation of 4.7% yoy. That’s the highest level since September 1991. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.0% yoy. On monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.1% mom, first decline since December 2020, in response to lower demand due to Omicron.

                                        CPI common rose from 2.0% yoy to 2.1% yoy matched expectations. CPI median rose from 2.8% yoy to 3.0% yoy, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. CPI trimmed jumped from 3.4% yoy to 3.7% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Into US session: CHF rises as Trump-Kim summit collapsed, Euro follows German yield higher

                                          Entering into US session, Swiss Franc and Euro are the strongest ones for today. It’s partly due to extended rally in German yields. But more so, judging that Yen is the third strongest, it likely due to collapse of Trump-Kim summit.

                                          Sterling is the weakest one for today, paring some of this week’s strongest gains. Canadian Dollar is the second weakest as WTI crude oil retreats.

                                          For the week, Sterling remains the strongest one, followed by Swiss Franc. Canadian is the weakest one, followed by Yen.

                                          Looking ahead, US Q4 GDP will takes center stage, with Chicago PMI and jobless claims featured. Canada will release current account, IPPI and RMPI but they’re unlikely to trigger any reaction.

                                          In Europe, currently:

                                          • FTSE is down -0.56%.
                                          • DAX is down -0.21%.
                                          • CAC is down -0.12%.
                                          • German 10 year yield is up 0.0142 at 0.163.

                                          Earlier in Asia:

                                          • Nikkei dropped -0.79%.
                                          • Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.43%.
                                          • China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.44%.
                                          • Singapore Strait Times dropped -1.15%.
                                          • Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0021 to -0.027.