Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said, “I suspect that it might be 2024 before we actually raise the interest rate target.” “Inflation is going to be the real test for whether or not it’s time to lift off.” A burst of inflation for six months is “not nearly enough,” he added. “Patience is something we are going to have to grapple with, probably”. “We should be comfortable with a sustainable 2.5% inflation rate for a year; I don’t really get nervous until it starts creeping up to 3%, and even then, I’d like to know how that’s how that’s being achieved,” Evans said.

Separately, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said there will be a “spike” in inflation this year, and “the numbers are hard to doubt”. But, “I do think you’ll see a return closer to normal next year, and then we’ll go from there. … You’re not going to see extended fiscal stimulus next year, you are not going to see these supply chain disruptions next year, and so some of the things that will be driving prices this year just won’t be in the mix next year.”

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “we are always on the lookout for runaway inflation, but right now we are just not seeing it.”

In an NPR radio interview, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said 2021 going to be stronger than previously thought, because of a “combination of better developments” including vaccines and fiscal stimulus.

“As we make substantial further progress towards our goals we will gradually roll back” the asset purchase program. He emphasized, the “process will take place with the greatest transparency.” And that would only happen “when the economy is all but fully recovered.”

On other topics, Powell said, “level of debt today is not unsustainable, no question of US being able to service its debt right now.” “Climate change is an important issue we will be dealing with for a long time with significant economic implications.”

Full interview here.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed the rhetorics of her FOMC colleagues, and said, “we won’t be preemptively taking the punchbowl away from the economy”.

Instead, “we want to discipline ourselves here and not get overly joyous that the unemployment rate is coming down, while so many other measures of labor-market activity remain well below pre-pandemic levels, still needing to recover,” she deed.

“So what you’re going to see in our framework is a good, healthy, and I think appropriate, dose of patience.”

New York Fed President John Williams said, “I see the U.S. economy recovering really nicely over the next couple of years.” But, “I don’t see inflationary pressures really building during that time.” Indeed, it would be a while before US could reach a sustained inflation rate of 2%, considering the high rates of unemployment, and other global disinflationary forces.

On monetary policy, Williams said, “I don’t know when we will take the next policy action because it will be driven by what happens in the economy.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he expected economy to growth 6.5% this year. Unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5% this year and below 4% next. Inflation would rise temporarily, but then fall back.

He noted there’s a lot of reason to be optimism but there are also concerns, like the scarring effects on large part of workforce due to the pandemic.

On monetary policy, “we’re looking for actual improvement in the economy and inflation to get back up to our dual mandate objectives of maximum inclusive employment and 2% inflation on average,” he added, before removing accommodation.

In a WSJ interview, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said “2023 is the time we’re going to start to be in the liftoff range” on monetary policy.

Fed will need to see “strong and robust” inflation for a sustained period before raising interest rates. Bostic added, “I just don’t have a lot of certainty that we’re going to see that very quickly.”

Though, he’s still seeing strong 6% growth in the US economy this year. Inflation would also overshoot Fed’s 2% target.