Japan considers state of emergency for Greater Tokyo

    While Asian markets rise broadly today, Nikkei is lagging with mild loss on fear of further showdowns. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga warned that the government would consider declaring state of emergency for the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area, as coronavirus cases surged.

    “Even during the three days of the New Year’s holidays, cases didn’t go down in the greater Tokyo area,” Suga said. “We felt that a stronger message was needed.” He added that in some regions like Osaka Prefecture and Hokkaido, shortening restaurant hours helped stem the rise in infections.

    Japan PMI Manufacturing finalized at 50, stabilization at the end of a tumultuous year

      Japan PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 50.0 in December, up from November’s 49.0. Markit said output stabilized after 23 consecutive monthly falls. Also, employment rose for the first time since February.

      Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

      “Japanese manufacturers signalled a broad stabilisation in operating conditions at the end of a tumultuous year, as the headline PMI registered at the 50.0 no-change threshold in December. This pushed the PMI to the highest level since April 2018 and ended a sequence of 19 straight declines – the longest in the survey history.

      “The overall health of the Japanese manufacturing sector was boosted by output levels steadying following nearly two years of consistent declines. Although new orders reduced in the latest survey period, the fall was the softest recorded in the current sequence dating back to January 2019.

      “Buoyed by improved operating conditions, Japanese manufacturing firms increased employment levels for the first time since February, albeit only fractionally. Nevertheless, ongoing issues of an ageing population have continued to hold back Japanese manufacturing employment, as firms report continued to report retirements.

      “Businesses reported a sustained increase in optimism, with a third of respondents predicting a rise in output over the coming 12 months. This is in line with the IHS Markit forecast for industrial production to grow 7.3% in 2021.”

      Full release here.

      China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.0, negative impact of pandemic further subsided

        China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped to 53.0 in December, down from 54.9, missed expectation of 54.9. Markit said that output and new work expanded at slower, but still marked, rates. Staffing levels stagnated, despite further uptick in backlogs of work. Input costs increased at quickest rate for three years.

        Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “In December, the negative impact of the pandemic on the domestic economy further subsided and the manufacturing industry continued to recover. Both the supply and demand sides continued to improve. Overseas demand also steadily increased. In terms of the trend, we expect the economic recovery in the post-epidemic era to continue for several months, and macroeconomic indicators will be stronger in the next six months, taking into account the low bases in the first half of 2020. Meanwhile, we need to pay attention to the mounting pressure on costs brought by the increase in raw material prices and its adverse impact on employment, which is particularly important for the design of the exit from stimulus policies implemented during the epidemic.”

        Full release here.

        US goods trade deficit widened to USD 84.8B in Nov

          US goods exports rose USD 1.1B November to USD 127.2B. Goods imports rose USD 5.5B to USD 212.0B. Trade deficit widened to USD -84.8B, up 5.5% mom. That’s larger than expectation of USD -81.5B deficit. Wholesale inventories dropped -0.1% mom to USD 649.0B. Retail inventories rose 0.7% mom to USD 616.9B.

          Full release here.

          Swiss KOF rose to 104.5 in Dec, driven by manufacturing and private consumption

            Swiss KOF Economic Barometer rose to 104.3 in December, up from 103.7, above expectation of 100.5. The barometer reached a value above the long-term average back in August, and was able to maintain throughout the second half of the year.

            KOF noted: “The slight increase is driven by bundles of indicators from the manufacturing sector and private consumption. An additional positive signal is sent by indicators for the financial and insurance service sector. By contrast, negative impulses are coming from indicators for foreign demand.”

            Full release here.

            AUD/CAD up trend continues as CAD underperforms

              Canadian Dollar has been under performing other commodity currencies in the current risk-on markets. AUD/CAD’s up trend is continuing this week, despite relatively weak upside momentum. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.9586 minor support holds, nonetheless. Rise from 0.8066 should target 38.2% projection of 0.8066 to 0.9696 from 0.9247 at 0.9870 next.

              Decisive break there could bring some upside acceleration to 61.8% projection at 1.0254. This level coincides with a structural resistance at 1.0241, part of the multiyear down trend from 1.0784 (2012 high). Reactions from there could decide how powerful the current long term up trend would evolve into.

              NZD/USD upside breakout, targets 0.74/75 next

                Following broad based selloff in Dollar in Asian session, NZD/USD finally breaks 0.7171 short term top. The development suggests resumption of whole up trend from 0.5469. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.7002 support holds. Next target would be 100% projection of 0.5920 to 0.6797 from 0.6589 at 0.7466.

                The real test to the up trend would be found in 0.7557 long term cluster resistance. That coincide with 61.8% retracement of 0.8835 (2014 high) to 0.5469 at 0.7549. We’d look for loss of momentum approaching this level, to bring a sizeable medium term correction. That’s something for next year, anyway.

                EUR/JPY upside breakout, EUR/USD to follow?

                  EUR/JPY’s rally accelerates today and break of 127.07 resistance confirms resumption of whole rise form 114.42. Next target should be long term fibonacci level of 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67.

                  Focus should also be on 1.2272 resistance in EUR/USD. Firm break there would affirm underlying strength in Euro. EUR/USD should then target 61.8% projection of 1.0635 to 1.2011 from 1.1602 at 1.2452. That could also bring stronger rise in Euro elsewhere.

                  Nikkei hit new 30-yr high, up trend back in force

                    After a few weeks of consolidation in tight range, Nikkei finally followed strong global risk appetite and staged an upside break out today. It closed up 714 pts, or 2.66%, at 27568.15, a new 30-year high. Next near term target is 100% projection of 16358.19 to 23178.10 from 21710.00 at 28529.91.

                    Much more importantly, it has now taken out a key multi-decade fibonacci level. That is 61.8% retracement of 39260 (1989 high) to 6994.89 (2009 low) at 26934.72. The long term up trend from 6994.89 should now have the potential to extend to a new record high, in medium term long term. Japan is heading back to its glory days, after a few lost decades.

                    NZD/JPY struggles in range, but stays bullish

                      Developments in commodity-yen crosses are disappointing considering the strong risk-on markets. NZD/JPY is still stuck in range below 74.30 short term top. The notable support from 72.79 resistance turned support is a sign of near term bullishness. Yet, NZD/JPY has to break through 74.30 to confirm resumption of whole up trend from 59.49. In that case, next upside target is 100% projection of 63.45 to 71.66 from 68.86 at 77.07.

                      However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 72.79 would argue that rise from 59.49 has completed with a five-wave sequence. Deeper correction could be seen back towards 68.86 support for the near term first.

                      Oil and gold range bound despite strong risk rally

                        While strong risk appetite is seen in stock markets, oil and gold are stuck in range. WTI crude oil’s rally attempt is limited below 49.25 resistance and 50 psychological level is too much to overcome for now. Consolidation from there could extend further. But even in case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained by 43.50 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.50 to 49.25 at 43.23) to contain downside to bring rebound.

                        Gold’s attempt on 1900 handle and 1906.74 resistance failed yesterday. As long as 1856.98 support holds, we should see rebound from 1764.31 resumes sooner rather than later. Sustained break of the medium term channel resistance will affirm the view that corrective fall from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down to 1764.31. Further rally should be seen then to 1965.50 resistance to confirm. Though, break of 1856.98 will risk more downside first and turn focus to 1819.05 support.

                        DOW, S&P 500 & NASDAQ hit record, setting stage for strong Q1

                          US stocks resumed recent up trends overnight as supported by the pandemic fiscal stimulus. All three major indices, DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new record highs. DOW’s close above 38.2% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 30340.30 is taken as a sign of solid underlying buying. We might see upside momentum intensify as traders are back from holidays next week. Tentatively, next target is 61.8% projection at 32932.93.

                          NASDAQ also matched corresponding level of 38.2% projection of 6631.42 to 12074.06 from 10822.57 at 12901.65, but closed slightly below. Another take on the level could be seen before weekend. Sustained trading above there will further affirm overall bullishness in the markets, and pave the way to 61.8% projection at 14186.12.

                          S&P 500 is lagging behind in this perspective as it’s still a bit below 38.2% projection of 2191.86 to 3588.11 from 3233.94 at 3767.30. We’ll keep an eye on SPX and firm break above they level should seal the case for a strong bullish Q1 in the US markets, as well as global markets too.

                          DOW hits new record, 33000 as next major target

                            DOW opens sharply higher today and extends gains to new record high at 30525.56 (so far). 38.2% projection of 18213.65 to 29199.35 from 26143.77 at 30340.30 is a strong sign of solid underlying buying. If DOW could close above this level today, we’re likely see some more upside acceleration in the near term. Next major target is 61.8% projection at 32932.93.

                            UK Johnson welcomes the UK/EU Agreement as new starting point

                              UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to European Council Charles Michel today. He tweeted afterwards, “I welcomed the importance of the UK/EU Agreement as a new starting point for our relationship, between sovereign equals.”

                              “We looked forward to the formal ratification of the agreement and to working together on shared priorities, such as tackling climate change,” he added.

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                              EU approved provisional application of UK trade deal

                                According to a tweet of the spokesman for the German EU Presidency Sebastian Fischer, EU has approved the provisional application of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement as of January 1, 2021. The next step is the final adoption by written procedure tomorrow.

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                                AUD/JPY in weak upside breakout, facing key long term resistance zone

                                  AUD/JPYs breach of 78.82 resistance suggests resumption of rise from 73.13. But upside momentum has been weak so far, and the cross couldn’t sustain above 78.82 yet. Also, we’d note again that AUD/JPY is facing a key resistance zone, between 55 month EMA and decade long falling channel. Risk of topping at around current level is high.

                                  Nevertheless, break of 77.49 support is needed to signal short term topping first. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor. Sustained break of the channel resistance will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal. That would pave the way to 90.29 resistance in the medium term.

                                  Gold trying to reclaim 1900, after drawing support from 4H 55 EMA

                                    Gold opens the week sharply higher today as  it drew strong support from 4 hour 55 EMA. It’s now trying to reclaim 1900 handle. More importantly, focus in on 1906.74 resistance. Firm break there will resume whole rebound form 1764.31. We’re seeing that corrective pattern from 2075.18 has completed with three waves down to 1764.31. Break of 1965.50 resistance should confirm our bullish view and target a test on this high. In any case, near term outlook will say cautiously bullish as long as 1819.05 support holds.

                                    BoJ member wary of falling back into deflation

                                      In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s December 17-18 meeting, It’s noted that the economy is “not judged to have fallen into a deflationary situation again”. But year-on-year rate of core inflation has already turned negative due to “temporary factors”, and it’s likely to be negative for the time being.

                                      However, there is a “risk” of the economy falling into deflation as “medium- to long- term inflation expectations have weakened somewhat”. Hence, “risks of sudden changes in financial markets, including foreign exchange rates, also continue to warrant attention.”

                                      It’s “highly likely” to take more time to achieve the price target. Given that monetary easing will be “further prolonged” it’s important to to conduct an assessment for further effective and sutainable monetary easing.

                                      One member warned, “if the economy falls into deflation again, positive economic developments, such as an increase in employment, will be hampered, and the opportunity for the economy to leap forward could be lost”

                                      “The Bank should conduct the assessment with determination to never allow the economy to return to deflation.” the member added.

                                      Full Summary of Opinions here.

                                      GBP/CAD trapped in medium and long term range pattern

                                        GBP/CAD is bounded inside both medium and long term sideway pattern after last week’s rebound. For the near term, firm break of 1.7674 resistance is needed to be the first sign of underlying bullishness. Retest of 1.8052 high could be seen next in this case. However, break of 1.6768 would indicate that whole rise from 1.5875 has completed at 1.8052. Deeper fall could then be seen through 1.6542 support to confirm this bearish case.

                                        In the bigger picture, it’s staying well inside long term patter that started at 1.5746 (2016 low). With this in mind, in case of the a near term upside breakout through 1.8052, upside could be capped by 1.8415 resistance, at least for first attempt. Meanwhile, any decline should be contained by 1.5875 support too.

                                        GBP/CHF upside capped despite last minute Brexit trade deal

                                          Sterling is so far having very little reaction to the last minute trade deal between the UK and EU. Overall outlook is mixed for now. Details were published in a 1246-page document titled “Draft EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement“. European Parliament is expected to meet today to discuss the agreement, while the UK Parliament will vote on December 30.

                                          GBP/CHF staged a strong rebound last week but upside is capped below 1.2203/59 resistance zone. Range trading could still continue between 1.1598/2259 for the near term. Resumption of rebound from 1.1102 is now mildly in favor. Firm break of 1.2259 would pave the way back to 1.3301 medium term structural resistance.

                                          However, break of 1.1598 support will confirm rejection by falling 55 week EMA, which should then keep the long term down trend intact for another low through 1.1102 at a later stage.