Hong Kong breaks April’s high on improving sentiment

    Asian markets trade broadly higher today, following the strong rebound in US stocks on Friday. Hong Kong HSI is additionally lifted by news of easing pandemic restrictions in Shanghai. China’s industrial profit dropped -6.5% yoy in May, improved from April’s -8.5% yoy.

    Technically, HSI breaks 22523.64 resistance (April’s high) to resume the rebound from 18235.48. Further rally is in favor as the index is moving away from 55 day EMA, with daily MACD back above signal line. Real test for the near term lies in 38.2% retracement of 31183.35 to 18235.48 at 23181.56. Sustained break there should confirm medium term bottoming and set the stage for stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 26237.26, even as a corrective move.

    US consumer confidence dropped to 84.8, consumer spending to cool in months ahead

      Conference Board US Consumer Confidence dropped to 84.8 in August, down from 91.7, missed expectation of 93.2. Present Situation Index dropped sharply from 95.9 to 84.2. Expectations INdex also dropped from 88.9 to 85.2.

      “Consumer Confidence declined in August for the second consecutive month,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path. Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead.”

      Full release here.

      AUD overpowers CAD and NZD as iron ore prices skyrocket

        Australian Dollar surges broadly today and even over-powers other commodity currencies. Surging iron ore prices are seen as a factor driving the moves. Iron ore entered a stage of parabolic rally after authorities at Pilbara Ports, the world’s largest iron ore export terminal, issued a cyclone warning, exacerbating an already tight market.

        AUD/NZD’s strong rebound now argues that corrective fall from 1.1043 might have completed at 1.0418, just ahead of 61.8% retracement of 0.9994 to 1.1043 at 1.0395. Break of 55 day EMA is a bullishness and further rise is expected as long as 1.0568 support holds. Focus is now on key resistance at 38.2% retracement of 1.1043 to 1.0418 at 1.0657. Decisive break there will firm affirm near term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0804 and above.

        AUD/CAD’s break of 0.9617 resistance also indicates resumption of rebound from 0.9247. It’s possibly that rise from 0.8066 is resuming too. But AUD/CAD would need to take out 0.9696 high to confirm. In the case, next upside target is 38.2% projection of 0.8066 to 0.9696 from 0.9247 at 0.9870. Break of 0.9456 support would extend the consolidation form 0.9696 with another falling leg instead.

        Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 99.0 in Jul

          Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 103.5 to 99.0 in July. Industrial confidence dropped from 7.0 to 3.5. Services confidence dropped from 104.1 to 10.7. Consumer confidence dropped from -23.8 to -27.0. Retail trade confidence dropped from -5.2 to -6.8. Construction confidence dropped from 103.5 to 99.0. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 110.2 to 107.0.

          EU Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped from 101.8 to 97.6. Employment Expectations Indicator dropped from 110.2 to 106.6. In the EU, the drop in the ESI in July was due to significant losses in industry, services, retail trade and consumer confidence, whereas confidence in construction decreased more mildly. The ESI fell markedly in four out of the six largest EU economies, Spain (-5.0), Germany (-4.9), Italy (-3.4) and Poland (-3.2), while it remained broadly stable in France (-0.1) and the Netherlands (+0.2).

          Full release here.

          UK PMI services finalized at 55.4, supply chain crisis put a considerable brake on recovery

            UK PMI Services was finalized at 55.4 in September, up slightly from August’s 55.0. PMI Composite was finalized at 54.9, up fractionally form August’s 54.8. Markit said charges rose at record pace amid supply constraints and spike in costs. Staff shortages held back output and new orders. Backlogs accumulated for the seventh month running.

            Tim Moore, Economics Director at IHS Markit: “The supply chain crisis put a considerable brake on recovery in the UK service sector during September. Survey respondents widely noted that shortages of staff, raw materials and transport had resulted in lost business opportunities… Another spike in operating expenses was reported… even though this data is yet to fully reflect the inflationary impact of the UK fuel crisis and surging energy prices…

            “Tight constraints on business capacity and rampant supply chain uncertainty meant that service providers have become more willing to pass on higher costs to customers. The latest rise in average prices charged by UK service sector firms was the fastest in over 25 years of data collection, with many businesses reporting more frequent reviews of pricing due to escalating cost increases by suppliers.”

            Full release here.

            ECB to hike another 25bps, EUR/CHF accelerating downwards

              ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row today. The main refinancing rate will be lifted by 25bps to 4.25%. Deposit rate, once negative will be raised by 25bps to 3.50%. The question remains on what the central bank would do next, and whether there would be further tightening in September. But it’s unlikely for President Christine Lagarde to provide any concrete answer, other likely pointing to incoming data and the new economic projections to be prepared before next decision.

              EUR/CHF’s decline from 1.0095 is showing sign of downside acceleration this week, by breaking through near term falling channel support, and as displayed in D MACD too. Next target is 100% projection of 0.9995 to 0.9670 from 0.9840 at 0.9515. Sustained break there will put 0.9407 (2022 low) in focus. Regardless of any recovery, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9670 support turned resistance holds.

              Meanwhile, it should also be noted that prior rejection by 55 W EMA keeps medium term outlook in EUR/CHF bearish. That is, the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in favor to continue. Firm break of 0.9407 would set the stage for 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018 in the medium term. The unfolding of this bearish scenario would depend significantly on the evolution of increasing recession risks in the latter half of the year and the impact on timing of the first ECB rate cut.

              Eurozone exports rose 13.3% yoy in Jul, imports surged 44.0% yoy

                Eurozone exports of goods rose 13.3% yoy to EUR 235.5B in July. Imports rose 44.0% yoy to EUR 269.5B. Trade deficit with the rest of the world came in at EUR -34B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 24.0% yoy to EUR 224.8B.

                In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports dropped -1.7% mom to EUR 236.7B. Imports rose 1.5% mom to EUR 277.0B. Trade deficit widened to EUR -40.3B, larger than expectation of EUR -32.5B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 225.1B to EUR 229.3B.

                Full release here.

                Trump scapegoats Fed as going crazy, wild and loco

                  It really bothers us to report nonsense. But when there are headlines flying around that could have an impact on the markets, it’s hard not to talk about it.

                  Trump launched another scapegoating attack on Fed and said, referring to the over 800 pts fall in DOW, “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy.” He added “actually, it’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing.”

                  Later he doubled down and said in a telephone interview that “the problem I have is with the Fed. The Fed is going wild. I mean, I don’t know what their problem is that they are raising interest rates and it’s ridiculous.” “The problem [causing the market drop] in my opinion is Treasury and the Fed. The Fed is going loco and there’s no reason for them to do it. I’m not happy about it.”

                  It’s again typical Trump in blaming the others. When the stock market hit record highs, did we hear the praise that Fed has done a great job? When unemployment is at record lows, with inflation at target, is Fed given the credits for meeting it’s dual mandates? Trump claimed all the credits all the way. When things turn, it’s others’ faults.

                  And, with federal funds rates at 2.00-2.25% and Fed still having a massive balance sheet, describing monetary policy as being “so tight” is a lie. When you disagree with what the Fed is doing, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s crazy. Fed’s decisions are collective made by a committee of rational professionals and intellects. It looks more like Trump himself is the crazy one.

                  And after all, he nominated Fed chair Powell and hired Treasurer Mnuchin. Add to the long list of people you hired and fired. If you keep on hiring the wrong people, then you are the problem, POTUS. You better quit.

                  Anyway, enough rants. Let’s move on .

                  Germany Ifo business climate recovered to 79.5, gradual lockdown easing offers a glimmer of hope

                    Germany ifo Business Climate recovered to 79.5 in May, up from 74.2, slightly above expectation of 78.8. Expectations gauge also jumped to 80.1, up from 69.4, beat expectation of 75.0. But Current Assessment gauge dropped to 78.9, down from 79.4, missed expectation of 81.9.

                    Looking at some details, all sector indexes improved but stayed negative. Manufacturing index rose fro m-44.5 to -36.4 .Service index rose from -34.2 to -21.0. Trade index rose from -48.4 to -30.5. Contraction index also rose fro -17.7 to -12.0.

                    Ifo President Clemens Fuest said: “Even though companies once again assessed their current situation as slightly worse, their expectations for the coming months improved considerably. Nevertheless, many companies are still pessimistic about their business. The gradual easing of the lockdown offers a glimmer of hope.”

                    Full release.

                    Trump: Trade negotiations with China essentially has already begun

                      Trump said that trade negotiations with China “essentially has already begun”. And, negotiators were “speaking very much on phone they are also meeting”. He remained optimistic and said “I think we have a good chance of making a deal”.

                      Though, he emphasized that China has had a “big advantage”over the US in trade for “many years”. Hence, “obviously you can’t make a 50-50 deal. It has to be a deal that is somewhat tilted to our advantage.”

                      Into US session: Dollar strongest on trade war, Sterling weakest on Brexit

                        Entering into US session, Sterling is trading as the weakest one for today on worries on no-deal Brexit. Swiss Franc follows as the second weakest as European stocks recover. Dollar remains the strongest one as supported by heightened trade tensions with China. Australian Dollar follows as the second strongest, then Japanese Yen.

                        In other markets, major European indices are trading in black today. At the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.04%, DAX up 0.59% and CAC up 0.31%. Asian markets were mixed, however. China Shanghai SSE closed down -1.29% at 2705.16. It has indeed breached 2700 handle briefly. Nikkei was also down -0.08% at 22507.32. But Hong Kong HSI and Singapore Strait Times closed up 0.52% and 0.60% respectively.

                        Elsewhere, Gold is back under pressure and lost 1210 handle. It could have a take on last week’s low at 1204.10 very soon. WTI crude oil is back above 69 as consolidation extends, but we’re seeing no evidence that it could regain 70 with conviction. 10 year JGB yields closed down -0.0005 at 0.105, holding on to 0.1 handle.

                        BoE Carney: We can choose between low road of protectionism or high road of trade liberalization

                          BoE Governor Mark Carney said in a Bloomberg interview that the world could choose between a “low road of protectionism focused on bilateral goods-trade balances” and a “high road of liberalization of global trade in services.” But he warned that the “low road will cost jobs, growth, and stability”. Meanwhile, the “high road can support a more inclusive and resilient globalization.” Carney said that the trade actions taken by Trump as of June had small impacts. But “a larger increase in tariffs would have a substantial impact”.

                          Domestically, Carney said that it’s “more likely than not” that the equilibrium interest rates have risen. But “any given jurisdiction has to take into account its own domestic forces, whether there are headwinds from fiscal policy, headwinds from uncertainty, headwinds from trade discussions or other factors.”

                          He also played down the chance of other EU countries replicating London’s success as a global financial center. He said, “in some circles in Europe there is a greater predisposition to ring-fence financial activities,” and “that could lead to a very large but effectively local financial center in Europe, as opposed to a global financial center, which I believe London will continue to be.”

                          ECB announces coronavirus response package without rate cut

                            ECB left interest rates unchanged today. That is, main refinancing rate is held at 0.00%, marginal lending facility rate at 0.25%, deposit facility rate at -0.50%. In response to coronavirus pandemic, ECB decided a package of measures. There will be additional longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) to provide liquidity support. In TLTROIII, considerably more favorable terms will be applied during the period from June 2020 to June 2021. Also, a temporary envelop of additional net asset purchases of EUR 120B will be added until the end of the year. Full statement here.

                            EUR/CHF recovers mildly but there is no following through buying. Markets will turn focus to President Christine Lagarde’s press conference.

                            Canada retail sales flat in Dec, ex-auto sales rose 0.5%

                              Canada retail sales were virtually unchanged at CAD 52.6B in December, matched expectations. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Sales were up in eight provinces. Ontario rose 0.4% as a result of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In Toronto, sales were up 1.8%. In Alberta, sales grew 1.0%. In Quebec, sales dropped -1.4%, largest monthly decline in more than a year.

                              Full release here.

                              Japan industrial production rose 0.1% mom in Feb, to expand further in Mar

                                Japan industrial production rose 0.1% mom in February, below expectation of 0.5% mom. That’s nonetheless the first rise in three months. index of production stood at 95.8, against the 2015 base of 100.

                                Auto production rose 10.9% mom, after plunging -17.3% mom in January. Output of transport equipment rose 7.9% mom. Chemical products dropped -9.6%.

                                Looking ahead, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expects output to keep expanding, up 3.6 percent in March and 9.6 percent in April, respectively, based on a poll of manufacturers.

                                Fed Kaplan: Continuation of the unemployment benefits needed

                                  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said “the issue with the resurgence in the virus is it slowed down or somewhat muted the recovery we’ve been expecting”. Hence, “the better again we manage the virus, the better we’ll recover.”

                                  “I believe the economy needs a continuation of the unemployment benefits,” Kaplan told CNN. “It may not need to be in the same form as it currently is, but we need a continuation.”

                                  Ifo: Eurozone economy to contract slightly by -0.4% in Q1, then recovers from Q2 onwards

                                    Germany’s Ifo institute said short term perspectives for Eurozone economy are “highly uncertain”. On the one hand, “the start of the vaccination campaigns gives some reason for optimism”. But on the other hand, “from the beginning of March onwards the pandemic situation has started to worsen almost everywhere with a reappraisal of the containment measures in some countries.”

                                    Overall, Ifo expected that these negatives will have “only a transitory effect of the economy”. Eurozone GDP is expected to contract slightly by -0.4% qoq in Q1, then to recover from Q2 onwards, by 1.5% qoq, and then 2.2% qoq in Q3.

                                    Full report here.

                                    US ISM manufacturing rose to 56.0, demand and consumption drive expansion

                                      US ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 56.0 in August, up from 54.2, beat expectation of 54.0. That’s also the highest level of expansion since November 2018. Five of the big six industry sectors expanded. Looking at some details, new orders rose 6.1 pts to 67.6. Production rose 1.2 pts to 63.3. Prices jumped 6.3 to 59.5. Employment rose 2.1 to 64.6, but stayed contractionary.

                                      Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “Demand and consumption continued to drive expansion growth, with inputs representing near- and moderate-term supply chain difficulties… Impacted by the current economic environment, many panelists’ companies are holding off on capital investments for the rest of 2020.”

                                      Full release here.

                                      Sterling staying in range after May’s Brexit defeat, no-deal vote next

                                        Sterling is steadily in range for now awaiting more clarify regarding the path forward for Brexit. UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal was voted down again in the Commons overnight, despite the last minute concessions from EU. MPs voted 391-242 to reject the deal, an insufficient improvement from January’s 432-202 votes. Now, a vote on no-deal Brexit will be carried out at 1900GMT on Wednesday. If no-deal is voted down, there will be another vote on Thursday for seeking Article 50 extension.

                                        May warned after the defeat. “Let me be clear. Voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems we face.” And, with the government at impasse, she asked “Does it wish to revoke Article 50 (announcing intention to leave the EU)? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal, but not this deal?”

                                        EU President Donald Tusk’s spokesman said the EU has done “all that is possible to reach an agreement” and the solution “can only be found in London.” The results now increases the risk for UK to crash out the EU without a deal. And he emphasized that there needs to be a “credible justification for a possible extension and its duration.”

                                        Reactions in Sterling is rather mild. The development was not unexpected except that May and Juncker provided some false hope that lifted the Pound briefly.

                                        Fed Evans: The two rate cuts were just modest adjustment for risk management

                                          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said “the U.S. economy continues to grow above trend … U.S. economic outlook is quite good, it still has strong fundamentals.” The two rate cuts this year were “modest adjustments” as “risk management to help make things work out better as we strive to bring in growth at about 2% over the next 18 months”.

                                          He added that “if there is an event that shocks the world economy or the U.S. economy, these modest adjustments are not going to be nearly enough”.