UK PMI Manufacturing dropped to 47.4 in December, down from 48.9, missed expectation of 49.4. That’s also the lowest level in 4 months. PMI Services dropped to 49.0, down from 49.3, missed expectation of 49.6. That’s the lowest level in 9 months. PMI Composite dropped to 48.5, down from 49.3, lowest in 41 months.

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“December’s PMI survey data sadly lacked festive cheer, indicating that the economy contracted for the third time in the past four months. The latest decline was the second largest recorded over the past decade, and increases the likelihood that the economy contracted slightly in the fourth quarter as Brexit-related uncertainty intensified in the lead up to the general election.

“New orders fell for a fifth straight month, causing jobs to be cut for a fourth successive month as firms scaled back operating capacity in line with weakened demand.

“The principal drag on order books was falling export sales, with overseas demand for UK-produced goods and services slumping in the past two months to an extent not seen since at least 2014.

“Manufacturing production is falling at a rate exceeded only once since the height of the global financial crisis in early- 2009, but output of the vast service sector has now also fallen in each of the past two months, representing the first back-to-back declines since 2009.

“Any positive aspects of the survey came largely from the sentiment indicators, with future expectations rising to the highest since June as firms hope that the election will bring clarity on the outlook and remove some of the uncertainty that has been holding back demand.”

Full release here.

UK PMI Services was finalized at 49.3 in November, down from October’s 50.0. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.3, down from 50.0. Markit noted marginal fall in business activity. New work decreased at the fastest pace since July 2016. Input cost inflation also eased to the lowest level for over three years.

Tim Moore, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey:

“November’s PMI surveys collectively suggest that the UK economy is staggering through the final quarter of 2019, with service sector output falling back into decline after a brief period of stabilisation.

“Lacklustre demand remains centred on business-to-business spending. Service providers have attributed the recent soft patch to delayed decision-making on new projects until greater clarity emerges in relation to the domestic political landscape. Sales to export markets were hard-hit in November, as signalled by the steepest fall in new work from abroad for more than five years.

“Service providers reported concerns that consumer appetite for big-ticket purchases has begun to falter, while those reliant on consumer footfall and discretionary spending noted the negative impact of unusually wet weather in November.

“Lower manufacturing production alongside an absence of growth in the service economy means that the IHS Markit/ CIPS Composite Output Index is consistent with UK GDP declining at a quarterly rate of around 0.1%.”

Full release here.