US embassy denies statement of release of pastor Brunson

    Lira has a quick dip in early US session while Yen crosses recover in general. The trigger is a social media report that American pastor Andrew Brunson, will be released from house arrest by August 15.

    The U.S. Embassy in Ankara, Turkey, quickly comes out and denies that it released related statement.

    While the rumor is denied, the reactions in the markets argue that traders are ready to take any positive news to close out their positions. The worst of Turkish crisis might be temporarily over.

    Gold recovering after poor US job data, but bounded in range

      Gold recovered notably in early US session, following the selloff in Dollar on much worse than expected US jobless claims data.

      But after all, Gold is just seen as extending the consolidation pattern from 1931.84 short term bottom. That is, another fall remains in favor. Break of 1931.84 support will firstly confirm resumption of whole fall from 2062.95. Secondly, that should also have medium term channel support firmly taken out. In this case, Gold should target 38.2% retracement of 1614.60 to 2062.95 at 1891.68.

      However, break of 1985.08 resistance will argue that the channel support is defended, and maintains medium term bullishness. Stronger rise should then be seen to retest 2062.95, even further to 2074.48 high.

      US PMI composite rose to 51.0, hopes of soft landing encouraged

        US PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 49.8 to 50.0 in October. PMI Services rose from 50.1 to 50.9. PMI Composite rose from 50.2 to 51.0.

        Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

        “Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will be encouraged by the improved situation seen in October. The S&P Global PMI survey has been among the most downbeat economic indicators in recent months, so the upturn in US output growth signalled at the start of the fourth quarter is good news. Future output expectations have also turned up despite rising geopolitical concerns and domestic political tensions, climbing to the joint-highest for nearly one-and-a-half years.

        “Sentiment has improved in part due to hopes of interest rates having peaked, something which looks increasingly likely given the further cooling of inflationary pressures witnessed in October. In spite of higher oil prices, firms’ input cost inflation fell sharply to the lowest since October 2020, and average selling prices for goods and services posted the smallest monthly rise since June 2020.

        “The survey’s selling price gauge is now close to its pre-pandemic long-run average and consistent with headline inflation dropping close to the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months, something which looks likely to be achieved without output falling into contraction. That said, the tensions in the Middle East pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, adding fresh uncertainty to the outlook.”

        Full US PMI release here.

        BoJ minutes: Developments in FX and other markets continued to warrant attention

          Minutes of BoJ’s December 17-18 meeting showed some discussions on the topic of exchange rates. Some members noted that “U.S. dollar continued to depreciate moderately against the yen as part of its depreciation trend against a wide range of currencies, and that developments in the foreign exchange and other financial markets continued to warrant attention.”

          One of these members added “recent improvement in market sentiment had been partly driven by expectations for vaccines” and the member was closely monitoring stocks market developments. One member noted ” future developments in the U.S. credit market warranted attention, since market participants had been actively conducting risk-taking activities.”

          On policy, “members agreed that the Bank would closely monitor the impact of COVID-19 and not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.” Most members shared the view that, “as for policy rates, it would expect short- and long-term interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels.”

          Full minutes here.

          Johnson and Corbyn couldn’t agree on timetable for Brexit bill

            UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson met opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn today. But they failed to agree on a timetable to press ahead with the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

            Labour spokesperson said “Jeremy Corbyn reiterated Labour’s offer to the prime minister to agree a reasonable timetable to debate, scrutinise and amend the withdrawal agreement bill, and restated that Labour will support a general election when the threat of a no-deal crash-out is off the table.”

            Afterwards in the PMQs, Johnson accused Labour of seeking to scupper Brexit. Corbyn called for “the necessary time to improve on this worse-than-terrible treaty”.

            China released 36k-word white paper showing it’s not backing down on trade war with US

              China’s State Council release a “White Paper on China-US Economic and Trade Frictions and China’s Position” today. This 36000 words paper consists of six sections, detailing the benefits of the bilateral trade, the economic and trade relations, US protectionism and trade hegemonism, the threat of US practice to world economy and China’s own position.

              In particular, the paper condemns the under the “America First” bandwagon, the new US government “abandoned the basic norms of international exchanges such as mutual respect and equal consultation, and implemented unilateralism, protectionism and economic hegemonism.”And the US used different means to “carry out economic intimidation, and impose extreme pressure its own interests impose its own interests on China.” The paper also detailed the new protectionist measures of the US. These include measures that discriminate products of other countries, abused national security investigations, subsidies on local industries.

              China’s own position include defending the “dignity and core interests of the country”, “promote healthy trade relationship with the US”, “promote and improve multilateral trade system”, “protect property and intellectual property rights”, “protect rights of foreign businesses in China”, “continue deepening reforms on opening the markets”, work on win-win relationships with developed and developing countries”, etc.

              All-in-all, the main message is that China is not going to back down in the trade conflicts. That’s what we get. Below are the links to the details as reported by the official Xinhua (in simplified Chinese). Look like they’re pretty serious.

              Mexico rejects safe third country proposal, pledges retaliation to US tariffs

                As Mexican officials are meeting US counterparts this week to avert sudden increase in tariffs, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard rejected that the so called “safe third country” proposal. Under this option favored by some US officials, Mexico will be forced to handle Central Americans seeking asylum in the US. Ebrard said “an agreement about a safe third country would not be acceptable for Mexico… They have not yet proposed it to me. But it would not be acceptable and they know it.”

                Ebrard also hit back at Trump’s claims that Mexico was doing “nothing” to help the US. And he said 250k more immigrants would reach the United States in 2019 without its efforts. He reiterated the country’s commitment to continue to work on curbing migration flows from Central America to US.

                Separately, Mexican Economy Minister Graciela Marquez warned in a statement that Trump’s tariffs on Mexican imports would affect all 50 US states, harm value chains, consumers and trade-related jobs in both countries. The proposed tariffs would cause total economic damage to the agriculture sector of $117 million per month in both countries. Marquez also pledged to retaliate if the proposed tariffs were imposed.

                Mexico’s ambassador to the United States, Martha Barcena, also warned “Tariffs, along with the decision to cancel aid programs to the northern Central American countries, could have a counterproductive effect and would not reduce migration flows.”

                IMF: Disruptive Brexit could lead to a significantly worse outcome

                  In an IMF report on UK, the organization expect growth to remain “moderate in the near term”, averaging around 1.5% in 2018 and 2019. However, it wanted that ” A more disruptive departure from the EU could lead to a significantly worse outcome, especially if it were to occur without an implementation period. “. On the other hand, “an agreement featuring fewer impediments to trade than currently expected could buoy business and consumer confidence, leading to faster growth.”.

                  IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde also said, “compared with today’s smooth single market, all the likely Brexit scenarios will have costs for the economy and to a lesser extent as well for the EU.” And she warned that “The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the costlier it will be. This should be fairly obvious, but it seems that sometimes it is not.”

                  In addition to Brexit, UK also faces a range of other economic challenges. These include “persistently lackluster productivity growth, large public debt, and the wide current account deficit.” Nonetheless, UK’s “sound macroeconomic framework, regulatory environment, and deep capital and flexible labor markets will be advantages in implementing reforms to address them.”

                  Full report here.

                  UK Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond urged the government to listen to the “clear warnings” of the IMF of no-deal Brexit. Though, he also noted that no-deal outcome is unlikely even though it’s not impossible.

                  BoE Hauser: Balance sheet will be structurally larger even after QE unwind

                    BoE Executive Director Andrew Hauser said in a speech, the central bank balance sheets will be “structurally larger”, comparing to the start of the millennium, even after current QE program unwind. Central will need to meet at “bigger share of the structurally higher demand for liquidity; and contemplate possible Central Bank Digital Currencies.”.

                    Also, the balance sheets will be “more variable as lower global interest rates and a broader liquidity insurance toolkit mean balance sheets play a more active countercyclical role.”.

                    Full speech here.

                    China PMI composite dropped to 43.9, downward pressure aggravated by several factors

                      China Caixin PMI Services dropped sharply from 50.2 to 42.0 in March, much worse than expectation of 49.9. That’s also the worst reading since February 2020. PMI Composite dropped from 50.1 to 43.9, also the worst since February 2020.

                      Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: “At present, China is facing the most severe wave of outbreaks since the beginning of 2020. Uncertainty also increased abroad. The outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the commodity market has convulsed. Several factors have aggravated the downward pressure on China’s economy and underscore the risk of stagflation.”

                      Full release here.

                      Into US session: Euro leads Sterling and Franc lower, Yen mixed on JGB yield fall

                        Entering into US session, Euro leads European majors broadly lower today. Weak PMIs and slowdown worry is a factor weighing on Euro. Additionally, in the background, Italy’s budget concern remains. The key officials of the populist government appear not backing from on the 2.4% deficit target for 2019, despite EU’s request to amend. Sterling is trading as the second weakest on never-ending Brexit worries. Swiss Franc is dragged down but the other two. On the other hand, Australia, US and Canadian Dollar are the strongest ones. Easing risk aversion is a key factor keep these currencies buoyed. Yen is mixed, partly because risk aversion eased, and partly due to the sharp fall in JGB yield.

                        Technically, EUR/USD has taken out 1.1431 support to resume the fall from 1.1814, and 1.1300 low is next target. EUR/CHF’s break of 1.1392 minor support argues that recent rebound from 1.1173 has completed and deeper fall would be seen back to this low. GBP/USD also breaks 1.2921 and should be heading to 1.2661/2784 support zone. USD/CHF also breaches 0.9980 to extend recent rise fro 1.0067 key resistance.

                        In European markets, at the time of writing:

                        • FTSE is up 1.01% at 7.025.50
                        • DAX is up 0.81% at 11365.23
                        • CAC is up 1.13% at 5023.87
                        • German 10 year yield is back up 0.0022 at 0.414, trying to defend 0.4 handle
                        • Italian 10 year yield is down -0.013 at 3.567
                        • Gold is back below 1230.

                        Earlier in Asia:

                        • Nikkei closed up 0.37% at 22091.18
                        • Singapore Strait Times up 0.02% at 3032.08
                        • China Shanghai SSE up 0.33% at 2603.30, reclaimed 2600
                        • But Hong Kong HSI lost -0.38% to 25249.78
                        • 10 year JGB yield dropped quite notably by -0.0151 to 0.135

                        BoJ Kuroda keeps an eye on inflation risks while maintaining ultra-easy policy

                          BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today, “the BOJ will continue its ultra-easy policy so improvements in corporate profits and the economy prop up wages and gradually accelerate consumer inflation.”

                          “We remain vigilant to the risk prices may shoot up before wages begin to rise, or how (rising raw material costs) could hurt smaller firms. We must keep an eye out on these risks, while maintaining our current easy monetary policy,” Kuroda said.

                          Meanwhile, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said, “it’s desirable to create an environment in which companies can pass on rising costs and raise wages, so that increasing consumption spurs economic growth and inflation.”

                          Fed Chair Powell’s press conference live stream

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                            Eurozone CPI dropped to -0.2% yoy in Aug, unemployment rose to 7.9% in Jul

                              Eurozone CPI dropped to -0.2% yoy in August, down from 0.4% yoy, missed expectation of 0.2% yoy. All items exclude energy dropped from 1.4% yoy to 0.7% yoy. Ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco dropped from 1.2% yoy to 0.4% yoy.

                              Eurozone unemployment rate edged up to 7.9% in July, up from 7.7%. EU unemployment rose to 7.2%, up from 7.1%.

                              AUD/JPY breaks medium term trend line resistance on strong risk appetite

                                AUD/JPY surges sharply today as the top gainer so far, on the back of strong risk appetite in the market. In particular, DAX is up nearly 4% back from a three-day break. CAC, up 2.1%, is not too far away while FTSE is also up 1% at the time of writing. Aussie is also supported by the relatively optimistic RBA statement as it’s firmly on hold stance.

                                AUD/JPY’s break of medium term falling trend line today as another signal of trend reversal. That is, firstly, whole fall from 90.29 should have completed at the 59.89 spike low. Outlook will stays bullish as long as 69.93 support holds. AUD/JPY should now target 38.2% retracement of 105.42 to 59.89 at 77.28 next. There is prospect of further rally to long term channel resistance at 80.80 in medium term.

                                CAD surges after BoC, a look at EUR/CAD, CAD/JPY

                                  Canadian Dollar jumps broadly after BoC statement. The tapering was well expected. But BoC now expects economic slack to be absorbed in H2 2022, suggesting that the timing of rate hike could happen much earlier than prior expected.

                                  CAD/JPY appears to have drawn strong support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Focus is back on 86.88 minor resistance. Break will suggest that pull back from 88.28 has completed at 85.40. Stronger rise would then be seen back to retest 88.28 high quickly.

                                  EUR/CAD’s fall is also back on 1.4949 support with the steep post BoC fall. Break will indicate that corrective rebound form 1.4723 has completed at 1.5191, and bring retest of 1.4723 low.

                                  FOMC Minutes: Economic projection implied a considerably stronger activity outlook in 2021

                                    Minutes of January 26-27 FOMC meeting noted that economic projection prepared by the staff for implied a “considerably stronger outlook for activity in 2021 relative to the December forecast”, incorporating the impact of additional fiscal support. Real GDP growth would “outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a considerable further decline in the unemployment rate”.

                                    Also, “participants remarked that the prospect of an effective vaccine program, the recently enacted fiscal support, and the potential for additional fiscal actions had led them to judge that the medium-term outlook had improved”.

                                    Nevertheless, “the economy remained far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the path ahead remained highly uncertain”. “It was likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved.”

                                    On inflation, “many participants stressed the importance of distinguishing between such one-time changes in relative prices and changes in the underlying trend for inflation,” the minutes said. Such moves “could temporarily raise measured inflation but would be unlikely to have a lasting effect.”

                                    Full minutes here.

                                    US NFP grew only 20k, but unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, wage growth accelerated

                                      US Non-Farm Payrolls grew only 20k in February, well below expectation of 185k. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, down from 4.0% and missed expectation of 3.9%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, beat expectation of 0.3% mom. Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 63.2%.

                                      Also from US, housing starts rose to 1.23M annualized rate in January, above expectation of 1.18M. Building permits rose to 1.35M, beat expectation of 1.29M.

                                      Canada employment data is strong, showing 55.9k growth in February, versus expectation of -2.5k fall. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8%.

                                      Germany Gfk consumer sentiment ticked up to -29.5, hindered by purchasing power concerns

                                        Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment index for April posted a modest improvement for the sixth consecutive month, rising from -30.6 to -29.5, although it fell short of the expected -29.0. In March, economic expectations for dipped from 6.0 to 3.7, while income expectations increased from -27.3 to -24.3. Propensity to buy also saw a slight uptick from -17.3 to -17.0.

                                        GfK consumer expert Rolf BĂĽrkl attributes the improved income expectations to the recent decline in energy prices, particularly for gas and heating oil. However, BĂĽrkl cautions that inflation will remain elevated this year, albeit lower than the 6.9% recorded in 2022.

                                        He explains, “The expected loss of purchasing power is preventing a sustained recovery in domestic demand. Accordingly, private consumption is unlikely to make a positive contribution to economic growth in Germany this year.” This outlook is reinforced by the persistently low level of consumer sentiment.

                                        Full Germany Gfk consumer sentiment release here.

                                        Eurozone retail sales rose 3.0% mom in Feb, EU rose 2.9% mom

                                          Eurozone retail sales rose 3.0% mom in February, well above expectation of 1.4% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 6.8% mom for non-food products and by 3.7% mom for automotive fuels, while it decreased by -1.1% mom for food, drinks and tobacco.

                                          EU retail sales rose 2.9% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest increases in total retail trade were registered in Austria (+28.2%), Slovenia (+16.4%) and Italy (+8.4%). The largest decreases were observed in Malta (-1.5%), France and Hungary (both -1.2%).

                                          Full release here.