BoE’s Pill cautions against overemphasis on June rate cut

    BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill today advised against fixating on the possibility of an interest rate cut in the upcoming June meeting, describing such expectations as “probably a little bit ill-advised.”

    Pill clarified that a rate reduction next month is not a “fait accompli,” tempering expectations that have been building around BoE’s short-term monetary policy trajectory.

    Pill elaborated that the MPC has indeed signaled that the bank rate could be reduced, but only upon receiving sufficient evidence that the persistent components of inflation are on a clear downward path.

     

    IMF recommends BoE cut rates by 50-75 bps in 2024

      IMF issued a report today suggesting that with UK inflation currently 2% above its neutral rate estimate, BoE should consider moving towards monetary easing.

      IMF highlighted the risks of “delayed easing”, cautioning that while BoE emphasizes the need to wait for clearer signs of reduced inflation persistence, holding off too long could be detrimental.

      Additionally, keeping the Bank Rate unchanged as inflation and inflation expectations decrease would “raise ex-post real rates”, which could hinder or even reverse the economic recovery. This scenario might lead to “extended undershooting of the inflation target”.

      To address these concerns, IMF recommends that BoE implement rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points in 2024. This would help balance the risks of premature easing against the need to support economic growth and ensure inflation remains on target.

      Full IMF report on the UK here.

      Fed Kaplan wants tapering soon, but not aggressive on rate

        Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told Reuters that, “as long as we continue to make progress in July numbers and in August jobs numbers, I think we’d be better off to start adjusting these purchases soon,” referring to the QE program.

        He added that tapering over a time frame of “plus or minus” about eight months would help give the Fed ” as much flexibility as possible to be patient and be flexible on the Fed funds rate.”

        He emphasized it’s “important to divorce discussion of the Fed funds rate from discussion of our purchases.” His comments on purchases are not intended to suggest I want to take more aggressive action on the Fed funds rate.”

        Fed Powell: US economic expansion feels very sustainable

          Fed Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday that the US economic expansion “feels very sustainable” even though “clearly things are slowing a bit”. And, the economy “may just be gathering itself – there’s no reason why the expansion can’t continue”. He added “policy is not on a preset course” and reiterated “we will be data dependent, assessing the outlook and risks to the outlook on a meeting-by-meeting basis. He also noted Fed will soon announce measures to add to the supply of reserves over time. However, the balance sheet for reserve management purposes is “in no sense is this QE”.

          Separately, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said “I wouldn’t mind another cut. I could see it either way”. “It would help for a little more insurance. Is it necessary and essential? I’m not sure. But I’m certainly open minded to those arguments,” he added. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he was “generally in favor” of lower interest rates, but, “I don’t know how much lower they should go.”

          Eurozone GDP rises 0.3% qoq in Q1, above exp 0.1% qoq

            Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.4% yoy in Q1, better than expectation of 0.1% qoq, 0.2% yoy. EU GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.5% yoy.

            Among the Member States for which data are available, Ireland (+1.1%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary (all +0.8%). Sweden (-0.1%) was the only Member State that recorded a decrease. The year on year growth rates were positive for nine countries and negative for four.

            Full Eurozone GDP release here.

            EU Barnier hopes to seal a transition Brexit deal this month

              EU Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned UK:-

              • The EU and Britain are hoping to seal a deal this month on a transition period after Brexit, and start talks on the future relationship this spring.
              • “One cannot have at the same time the status of a third country and demand at the same time the advantages of the (European) Union,”
              • “It is time to face up to the hard facts,”

              Earlier today, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in European Parliament on Brexit:-

              • “There is increasing urgency to negotiate this orderly withdrawal.”
              • “As the clock counts down, with one year to go, it is now time to translate speeches into treaties, to turn commitments into agreements.”
              • “It is obvious that we need further clarity from the UK if we are to reach an understanding on our future relationship.”

              Fed Bowman: Asset purchases have essentially served their purpose

                Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech yesterday that she’s “mindful that the remaining benefits to the economy from our asset purchases are now likely outweighed by the potential costs.”

                “Provided the economy continues to improve as I expect, I am very comfortable at this point with a decision to start to taper our asset purchases before the end of the year and, preferably, as early as at our next meeting in November,” she added.

                Bowman also noted that the asset purchases have “essentially served their purpose.” She’s particularly concerned that “asset purchases could now be contributing to valuation pressures, especially in housing and equity markets.” The loose monetary policy could now “pose risks to the stability of longer-term inflation expectations.”

                Full speech here.

                Fed Mester: We’re going to need to do some 50 basis-point moves

                  Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reiterated yesterday that Fed should “front-load” interest rate hikes in the first of of the year, and start quantitative tightening at the same time. “We have to recognize that inflation is very elevated. It is well above our goal. We have to do what we can with both our policy tools to get inflation under control,” she emphasized.

                  “I think we’re going to need to do some 50 basis-point moves,” Mester added. “I don’t want to presuppose every meeting from here to July, but I do think we need to be more aggressive earlier rather than later.”

                  Fed Daly: Last rate cut an appropriate recalibration of policy for headwinds, not impending downturn

                    In a Quora.com post, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly said the US is not headed towards a recessions right not. She saw “solid domestic momentum that points to a continued economic expansion:. Also, “the labor market is strong, consumer confidence is high, and consumer spending is healthy.”

                    But “considerable headwinds”, including global slowdown and trade uncertainties, contributed to fear that a “downturn is right around the corner”. Hence, she’s closely look at whether “fear of recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy”.

                    Daly added that recent rate cut was “appropriate recalibration” of policy in response to the headwinds. And, her support was “not because I see an impending downturn on the horizon.”

                    Swiss consumer climate surged to 8 in Q2, highest since 2010

                      Swiss SECO Consumer Climate rose sharply from -7 to 8 in Q3. That’s the highest level since July 2010, and well above long-term average of -5. Expectations of general economic growth rose to record 48. Employment expectations rose to 29, just slightly below pre-crisis level. Expected financial situation also rose to 3, back above long-term average for the first time in over six years.

                      Full release here.

                      BoE’s Broadbent: Summer rate cut possible

                        In a speech today, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent indicated that if current forecasts hold, which suggest that monetary policy will need to become “less restrictive at some point”, a rate cut could occur “over the summer”.

                        Broadbent noted that the direct impact of the pandemic and the war on inflation has now diminished. What remains are the “more persistent second-round effects” on domestic inflation stemming from these earlier shocks.

                        He emphasized the uncertainty surrounding how long these effects will persist. While a symmetrical process might suggest a quick unwinding within the next year, the Committee has consistently judged that the process is likely to be “asymmetric”. As stated in recent Monetary Policy Reports, “second-round effects in domestic prices and wages will take longer to unwind than they did to emerge.”

                        Full speech of BoE’s Broadbent here.

                        US retail sales dropped -0.2%, ex-auto sales rose 0.1%, both missed expectations

                          In April, US headline retail sales dropped -0.2%, missed expectation of 0.2% mom rise. Ex-auto sales rose merely 0.1% mom, much lower than expectation of 0.7% mom.

                          Empires State manufacturing index rose to 17.8 in May, up from 10.1 and beat expectation 8.0.

                          Australia’s wage price index rises 0.8% qoq, 4.1% yoy in Q1

                            Australia wage price index rose 0.8% qoq, below expectation of 0.9% qoq. The private sector rose 0.8% qoq and the public sector rose 0.5% qoq. Over the year, WPI slowed from 4.2% yoy to 4.1% yoy, below expectation of 4.2% yoy.

                            Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said: “The WPI annual all sectors wage growth has remained at or above 4 per cent since September quarter 2023. The last time wages growth was at this level for three consecutive quarters was March quarter 2009.”

                            Full Australia wage price index release here.

                            BoJ Kuroda: Economy growing moderately despite some weakness in exports and output

                              BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the economy is “growing moderately” even though policymakers were “seeing some weakness in exports and output”. He said today in France that capital expenditure remained “very firm” and the global economy was still sustaining moderate growth despite various risks.

                              He added, “the board will debate policy this month based on this view”. But he also emphasized we will swiftly consider additional monetary easing steps if the economy loses momentum for hitting our inflation target.”

                              BoE’s Pill: The question of sufficient policy action more finely balanced

                                BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill noted today that the pressing question of whether tigthening has been adequate to curb high inflation is becoming “more finely balanced”.

                                Over the past two years, the BoE has executed 14 consecutive interest rate hikes, a strategy that is still in the process of fully impacting the economy. “We have done a lot over the last two years. A lot of that policy is still to come through,” Pill told a panel discussion at IMF meetings in Morocco.

                                But, “Whether we’ve done enough – or whether we have more to do – I think is becoming a more finely balanced issue,” he added. Despite this, Pill assured that the bank remains committed to ensuring inflation returns to the 2% target on a lasting basis.

                                On the topic of potentially reducing rates, Pill deemed such conversations premature. He reaffirmed the bank’s position that high borrowing costs are likely to be maintained for a duration.

                                US durable goods orders rose 0.6%, ex-transport orders rose 0.6%

                                  US durable goods orders rose 0.6% to USD 248.7b in October, well above expectation of -0.5% contraction. ex-transport orders rose 0.6%, also above expectation of 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1%.

                                  Full release here.

                                  German Altmaier: Most difficult part in US trade talks to follow

                                    German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told Deutschlandfunk radio today that “for some weeks and months now, we’re observing with concern that the U.S. is tightening its trade policies, that tensions are increasing.” And, “the impact can already be seen in the world economy, global growth has slowed.”

                                    Regarding the trade talks between EU and US, Altmaier said “We are not yet where we want to be. We might have made one-third of the way and the most difficult part will be now”. Though he added he was in favor of lowering auto tariffs, “ideally to zero percent”.

                                    But Altmaier also reiterated EU’s position that agriculture will not be included in any trade talks. He said “agriculture is a very sensitive topic, so we don’t want to talk about this in the current situation.”

                                    BoJ: Domestic demand on uptrend, upgrade Hokkaido assessment

                                      In its Regional Economic Report, BoJ, upgraded assessment on Hokkaido and described the economy as “expanding moderately”, instead of “recovering moderately. Assessment on other eight regions were kept unchanged, as recovering, expanding, or expanding moderately.

                                      BoJ also said that “domestic demand had continued on an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating in both the corporate and household sectors, although exports, production, and business sentiment had been affected by the slowdown in overseas economies.”

                                      Full report here.

                                      Japan’s industrial production rises 1.8% mom in Dec, a bounce in seesawing pattern

                                        Japan’s industrial production rose 1.8% mom in December, rebounding from prior month’s -0.9% mom contraction, but missed expectation of 2.4% mom.

                                        Manufacturers have tempered expectations for the coming months, predicting a -6.2% mom drop in production in January, followed by a modest 2.2% mom increase in February. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintains its assessment of “seesawing” on production.

                                        As an METI official indicated, the recent Noto Peninsula earthquake’s impact on manufacturing appears minimal for January. However, production forecasts are clouded by the suspension of operations at Daihatsu due to issues with collision-safety test irregularities.

                                        “Although we believe that the production sentiment of companies is gradually getting out of the bearish phase, for the time being, we need to pay attention to the impact of the suspension of auto manufacturers’ operation,” the official said.

                                        In separate release, retail sales grew 2.1% yoy in December, well below expectation of 5.0% yoy.

                                        Swiss KOF falls to 101.5, yet outlook remains positive

                                          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell from 102.0 to 101.5 in March, below expectation of 102.3. Despite this minor setback, the barometer continues to hover above its long-term average, indicating a positive outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months.

                                          The decline can primarily be attributed to weaker performances in the construction sector and private consumption. However, finance and insurance sector emerged as a bright spot, with indicators pointing to slight improvements.

                                          Full Swiss KOF release here.