IMF issued a report today suggesting that with UK inflation currently 2% above its neutral rate estimate, BoE should consider moving towards monetary easing.
IMF highlighted the risks of “delayed easing”, cautioning that while BoE emphasizes the need to wait for clearer signs of reduced inflation persistence, holding off too long could be detrimental.
Additionally, keeping the Bank Rate unchanged as inflation and inflation expectations decrease would “raise ex-post real rates”, which could hinder or even reverse the economic recovery. This scenario might lead to “extended undershooting of the inflation target”.
To address these concerns, IMF recommends that BoE implement rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points in 2024. This would help balance the risks of premature easing against the need to support economic growth and ensure inflation remains on target.
BoE’s Pill cautions against overemphasis on June rate cut
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill today advised against fixating on the possibility of an interest rate cut in the upcoming June meeting, describing such expectations as “probably a little bit ill-advised.”
Pill clarified that a rate reduction next month is not a “fait accompli,” tempering expectations that have been building around BoE’s short-term monetary policy trajectory.
Pill elaborated that the MPC has indeed signaled that the bank rate could be reduced, but only upon receiving sufficient evidence that the persistent components of inflation are on a clear downward path.