EU Weyand: Failing to reach a trade agreement with UK by 2020 would lead to another cliff-edge situation

    EU trade director-general Sabine Weyand acknowledged that “UK does not intend to go for an extension of the transition” and EU needs to be prepared for that. She added, “that means in the negotiations we have to look at those issues where failing to reach an agreement by 2020 would lead to another cliff-edge situation.”

    Weyand also said EU is ready to start negotiations very quickly after UK leaves EU at the end of January. But she also emphasized, “the ambition for duty-free, quota-free trade under a free-trade agreement has to come accompanied by a level playing field.” European Commission is due today afternoon to brief EU27 countries on its work program for the negotiations.

    Fed Bowman: Asset purchases have essentially served their purpose

      Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech yesterday that she’s “mindful that the remaining benefits to the economy from our asset purchases are now likely outweighed by the potential costs.”

      “Provided the economy continues to improve as I expect, I am very comfortable at this point with a decision to start to taper our asset purchases before the end of the year and, preferably, as early as at our next meeting in November,” she added.

      Bowman also noted that the asset purchases have “essentially served their purpose.” She’s particularly concerned that “asset purchases could now be contributing to valuation pressures, especially in housing and equity markets.” The loose monetary policy could now “pose risks to the stability of longer-term inflation expectations.”

      Full speech here.

      Swiss consumer climate surged to 8 in Q2, highest since 2010

        Swiss SECO Consumer Climate rose sharply from -7 to 8 in Q3. That’s the highest level since July 2010, and well above long-term average of -5. Expectations of general economic growth rose to record 48. Employment expectations rose to 29, just slightly below pre-crisis level. Expected financial situation also rose to 3, back above long-term average for the first time in over six years.

        Full release here.

        Fed’s Collins methodical, forward-looking approach to rate cuts

          Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested that it may become “appropriate to begin easing policy later this year,” highlighting the importance of a “methodical, forward-looking approach” to gradually reduce rates.

          Collins anticipated further inflation deceleration would might necessitate further slowdown in economic activity. However, she noted the “considerable uncertainty” surrounding the magnitude and timing of this slowdown. The path ahead, as Collins notes, is expected to be “bumpy,” as suggested by hotter-than-expected employment and price increase readings.

          In this context, it will be important to focus on seeking “sustained, broadening signs” of progress towards its dual mandate goals, acknowledging that such progress may unfold unevenly. Collins cautions against setting overly stringent expectations for the data, indicating that “expecting all data to speak uniformly is too high a bar.”

          BoE’s Broadbent: Summer rate cut possible

            In a speech today, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent indicated that if current forecasts hold, which suggest that monetary policy will need to become “less restrictive at some point”, a rate cut could occur “over the summer”.

            Broadbent noted that the direct impact of the pandemic and the war on inflation has now diminished. What remains are the “more persistent second-round effects” on domestic inflation stemming from these earlier shocks.

            He emphasized the uncertainty surrounding how long these effects will persist. While a symmetrical process might suggest a quick unwinding within the next year, the Committee has consistently judged that the process is likely to be “asymmetric”. As stated in recent Monetary Policy Reports, “second-round effects in domestic prices and wages will take longer to unwind than they did to emerge.”

            Full speech of BoE’s Broadbent here.

            New Zealand in technical recession as Q4 GDP contracts -0.1% qoq

              New Zealand’s economy has officially entered technical recession, with GDP contracting by -0.1% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.0% qoq. This decline follows -0.3% contraction in Q4, marking two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

              GDP per capita declined decline of -0.7% qoq, while real gross national disposable income saw a -1.4% qoq drop.

              The contraction was not uniformly felt across all sectors. Of the sixteen industries analyzed, eight experienced growth, notably the rental, hiring, and real estate services sector, alongside public administration, safety, and defense.

              Full NZ GDP release here.

              BoJ Kuroda: Economy growing moderately despite some weakness in exports and output

                BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated his view that the economy is “growing moderately” even though policymakers were “seeing some weakness in exports and output”. He said today in France that capital expenditure remained “very firm” and the global economy was still sustaining moderate growth despite various risks.

                He added, “the board will debate policy this month based on this view”. But he also emphasized we will swiftly consider additional monetary easing steps if the economy loses momentum for hitting our inflation target.”

                New Zealand’s Q2 GDP outperforms expectations with 0.9% qoq growth

                  New Zealand’s GDP surged by 0.90% qoq in Q2, doubling the expected growth rate of 0.4%. This notable growth is significantly attributed to substantial boost in the business services sector, specifically within the realm of computer system design.

                  Despite a setback in the primary industries, which contracted by 1.9%, goods-producing industries and service sectors pulled their weight, recording a growth of 0.7% and 1.0% respectively. The service sector emerged as a strong pillar of economic advancement.

                  The quarter also saw manufacturing sector shake off its lethargy, reversing a trend of decline sustained over five consecutive quarters to contribute positively to the economic pie.

                  Full NZ GDP release here.

                  ECB’s Wunsch sees path to start rate cut, but not preset course of action

                    Speaking in Frankfurt, ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch indicated the even though the outlook remains “foggy”, he saw a “path for initiating rate cuts this year.” He added that the upcoming June meeting would provide clearer insights into wage and service sector dynamics for making the decision.

                    Wunsch further explained that there is “no sign of de-anchoring” regarding longer-term inflation expectations, which supports the argument the costs of remaining “tight for too long” seem to outweigh those of a “premature loosening”.

                    However, Wunsch also noted “significant risks” related to the path of wage growth and inflation in sectors with high labor costs. Therefore “now is not the time to commit to a preset course of action” he added.

                    US durable goods orders rose 0.6%, ex-transport orders rose 0.6%

                      US durable goods orders rose 0.6% to USD 248.7b in October, well above expectation of -0.5% contraction. ex-transport orders rose 0.6%, also above expectation of 0.2%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.1%.

                      Full release here.

                      German Altmaier: Most difficult part in US trade talks to follow

                        German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told Deutschlandfunk radio today that “for some weeks and months now, we’re observing with concern that the U.S. is tightening its trade policies, that tensions are increasing.” And, “the impact can already be seen in the world economy, global growth has slowed.”

                        Regarding the trade talks between EU and US, Altmaier said “We are not yet where we want to be. We might have made one-third of the way and the most difficult part will be now”. Though he added he was in favor of lowering auto tariffs, “ideally to zero percent”.

                        But Altmaier also reiterated EU’s position that agriculture will not be included in any trade talks. He said “agriculture is a very sensitive topic, so we don’t want to talk about this in the current situation.”

                        Japan’s industrial production rises 1.8% mom in Dec, a bounce in seesawing pattern

                          Japan’s industrial production rose 1.8% mom in December, rebounding from prior month’s -0.9% mom contraction, but missed expectation of 2.4% mom.

                          Manufacturers have tempered expectations for the coming months, predicting a -6.2% mom drop in production in January, followed by a modest 2.2% mom increase in February. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintains its assessment of “seesawing” on production.

                          As an METI official indicated, the recent Noto Peninsula earthquake’s impact on manufacturing appears minimal for January. However, production forecasts are clouded by the suspension of operations at Daihatsu due to issues with collision-safety test irregularities.

                          “Although we believe that the production sentiment of companies is gradually getting out of the bearish phase, for the time being, we need to pay attention to the impact of the suspension of auto manufacturers’ operation,” the official said.

                          In separate release, retail sales grew 2.1% yoy in December, well below expectation of 5.0% yoy.

                          BoE’s Bailey anticipates sharp decline in inflation, stresses need for balance

                            BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking at an International Institute of Finance conference, projected a “quite a strong drop” in next month’s inflation figures. This expectation is largely due to the unique household energy pricing system in the UK, which is set to impact the overall inflation calculations differently compared to other sectors.

                            However, he was quick to temper this optimistic forecast with a note of caution regarding the broader inflationary landscape. According to Bailey, underlying components of the inflation measure continue to show disparities that could complicate monetary policy response.

                            The Governor pointed out that while energy price inflation is currently running at minus 20%, the inflation in services remains high, around 6%. This stark contrast in inflation rates across different sectors presents an “unbalanced” picture.

                            “We don’t have to have every component actually at target, but you do have to have a better balance,” Bailey remarked.

                            BoJ: Domestic demand on uptrend, upgrade Hokkaido assessment

                              In its Regional Economic Report, BoJ, upgraded assessment on Hokkaido and described the economy as “expanding moderately”, instead of “recovering moderately. Assessment on other eight regions were kept unchanged, as recovering, expanding, or expanding moderately.

                              BoJ also said that “domestic demand had continued on an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending operating in both the corporate and household sectors, although exports, production, and business sentiment had been affected by the slowdown in overseas economies.”

                              Full report here.

                              ECB press conference live stream

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                                BoE’s Pill cautions against overemphasis on June rate cut

                                  BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill today advised against fixating on the possibility of an interest rate cut in the upcoming June meeting, describing such expectations as “probably a little bit ill-advised.”

                                  Pill clarified that a rate reduction next month is not a “fait accompli,” tempering expectations that have been building around BoE’s short-term monetary policy trajectory.

                                  Pill elaborated that the MPC has indeed signaled that the bank rate could be reduced, but only upon receiving sufficient evidence that the persistent components of inflation are on a clear downward path.

                                   

                                  Fed Bostic warns of overtightening risks, advocates for cautious approach

                                    Yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed guarded optimism and highlighted the “significant progress” in controlling inflation. He observed, “Inflation is well off its highs that we saw in the last year. And recent numbers have come in promising in ways that suggest that we might be seeing continued declines.”

                                    Bostic pointed to the ongoing economic evolution as in line with an “orderly slowdown,” which he views as “quite promising”. As such, he advocated to be cautious, patient and resolute” in policy-making.

                                    He also voiced concerns about the risk of overtightening monetary policy. “I think we are in a phase now where there is some risk of us overtightening. And so we’ve just got to have that in mind,” he said. By exercising appropriate caution, Bostic believes that the damage to employment can be minimized.

                                    Looking forward, Bostic said, “My baseline outlook doesn’t contemplate any cuts until the second half of next year at the earliest.” He insists on being “resolute to make sure that we don’t move our policy posture in a different direction until we’re absolutely, absolutely certain that inflation is going to get to our target.”

                                    US-China trade talks concluded the Beijing round

                                      US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin tweeted that this round of trade talks in Beijing has concluded. He described the talks as “constructive”. And he looks forward to meeting Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington next week to continue the “important” discussions.

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                                      US initial jobless claims dropped -13k to 209k

                                        US initial jobless claims dropped -13k to 209k in the week ending July 6, below expectation of 221k. Four week moving average of initial claims dropped -3.25k to 219.25k.

                                        Continuing claims rose 27k to 1.723m in the week ending June 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 5.75k to 1.695m.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Eurozone GDP rises 0.3% qoq in Q1, above exp 0.1% qoq

                                          Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.4% yoy in Q1, better than expectation of 0.1% qoq, 0.2% yoy. EU GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 0.5% yoy.

                                          Among the Member States for which data are available, Ireland (+1.1%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary (all +0.8%). Sweden (-0.1%) was the only Member State that recorded a decrease. The year on year growth rates were positive for nine countries and negative for four.

                                          Full Eurozone GDP release here.