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New Zealand ANZ business confidence surges to seven-month high, green shoots emerging

    By
    ActionForex
    -

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index surged sharply in September, rising from 49.6 to 58.1, the highest level since February. Own Activity Outlook also improved modestly, up from 43.4 to 44.6, marking its strongest reading since April.

    Inflation expectations, meanwhile, remained broadly steady. The share of firms expecting to raise prices over the next three months eased slightly from 46% to 44%. Those anticipating cost increases ticked up from 75% to 76%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations edged higher from 2.71% to 2.75%.

    ANZ noted that “green shoots are emerging, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive sectors.” The bank highlighted stronger retail sentiment as evidence that the economy is beginning to warm alongside the spring season, with monetary easing and high rural incomes supporting regional confidence and broader recovery momentum.

    Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

    Fed delivers 25bps rate cut in 3-way split vote

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, in line with expectations, but revealed a three-way split among policymakers. Governor Stephen Miran voted for a deeper 50bps reduction, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferred to hold rates steady. The outcome highlights differing views within the Committee over the balance between inflation control and downside risks to growth.

      In its statement, the Fed offered no explicit forward guidance, reiterating that it will “continue to monitor incoming information” and stands ready to adjust policy as appropriate should new risks emerge.

      The Committee described economic activity as expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and unemployment edging higher but still low through August. Inflation was noted as having moved up since earlier in the year and remaining “somewhat elevated.”

      The Fed also acknowledged that uncertainty about the outlook remains elevated, with downside risks to employment having increased in recent months.

      Full FOMC statement here.

      BoC cuts to 2.25%, signals end of easing Cycle

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        BoC delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut, lowering its overnight rate to 2.25%, but signaled that this could mark the end of its current easing cycle. The central bank said that if inflation and economic activity evolve in line with its October projection, the current policy rate is “about the right level” to balance supporting growth with keeping inflation close to target. That phrasing was interpreted as indicating that 2.25% is the likely terminal rate, barring major economic shocks.

        In its accompanying statement, the BoC acknowledged that U.S. trade actions and uncertainty are having “severe effects” on key export-oriented industries. As a result, the Bank expects GDP growth to remain weak in the second half of the year before recovering gradually through 2026. The economy is projected to expand 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.6% in 2027, with excess capacity expected to be absorbed only slowly.

        The BoC described the labour market as soft, with job declines concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while hiring across the broader economy remains subdued.

        On inflation, the BoC noted that headline CPI stood at 2.4% in September, slightly above expectations, while its preferred core measures remain sticky around 3%. Broader alternative indicators suggest underlying inflation near 2.5%, but the BoC expects price pressures to ease gradually and headline CPI to remain close to 2% over the projection horizon.

        Full BoC statement here.

        USD/CAD break or hold? 1.3930 support tested ahead of BoC–Fed double cuts

          By
          ActionForex
          -

          Global attention turns to North America today, with both the BoC and the Fed expected to deliver 25bps rate cuts. The BoC’s decision will come first at 13:45 GMT, followed by the Fed’s announcement later at 18:00 GMT.

          The BoC’s overnight rate is widely expected to fall to 2.25%, reflecting the bank’s persistent concern about growth despite recent resilience in jobs and inflation data. Policymakers remain uneasy about the impact of U.S. tariffs and weak domestic demand, even as headline inflation overshoots target. For Governor Tiff Macklem and his team, the near-term goal remains cushioning the economy without reigniting price pressures.

          Most analysts expect today’s cut to be the final one of this cycle, with the BoC likely to enter a prolonged pause. A Reuters poll showed 21 of 34 economists forecasting rates at 2.25% by the end of 2026, implying stability for an extended period. Only eight respondents saw further easing to 2.00% or below.

          Still, the balance of risks leans dovish, as agreed by most, and a terminal rate at 2.00% is a real possibility. Growth remains soft, exports are vulnerable to trade restrictions, and business confidence has yet to rebound. Policymakers are likely to leave the door open for further cuts without explicitly signaling another move.

          Attention will then shift to the Fed, which is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.00%. Futures markets also price in a 90% probability of another 25bps cut in December, taking the target range to 3.50–3.75%.

          However, the 2026 policy path remains clouded by diverging risks — inflation could reaccelerate if tariffs bite harder, even as the labor market shows signs of fatigue. A recent Reuters survey reflected this uncertainty, showing economists split seven ways on where rates might stand by the end of next year — anywhere between 2.25%–2.50% and 3.75%–4.00%.

          The debate has been complicated further by speculation over who will replace Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed earlier this week that the shortlist includes Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, all representing slightly different shades of monetary philosophy.

          Given that backdrop, Powell is unlikely to make any firm commitments on policy beyond today’s meeting. Markets will instead look to the December Summary of Economic Projections and updated dot plot for clarity on the 2026 rate path.

          In the currency markets, USD/CAD has weakened sharply just ahead of the twin policy events, hovering just above 1.3930 support after yesterday’s selloff. A rebound from current levels would keep the broader uptrend from 1.3538 intact, with a break above 1.4006 suggesting the rally’s resumption through 1.4078.

          Conversely, decisive break below 1.3930 would signal that the advance has likely topped, opening the way for a deeper pullback toward the channel floor near 1.3829, where the next key directional cue will emerge.

          Aussie soars, Sterling slumps, GBP/AUD confirms medium term bearish turn

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            Aussie surged sharply on after the hotter-than-expected inflation print shattered hopes for a RBA rate cut next week. Crucially, the upside surprise wasn’t confined to energy-driven headline gains. The broad-based acceleration in core inflation confirmed that price pressures have become more entrenched.

            RBA Governor Michele Bullock had warned earlier this week that any 0.9% or higher quarterly increase in the trimmed mean would constitute a “material miss.” The 1.0% outcome squarely fits that definition, virtually guaranteeing the central bank will keep rates unchanged at next week’s policy meeting. With economic activity showing tentative signs of recovery, the balance of risks has shifted decisively toward fewer rate cuts over the next year.

            In the currency markets, Aussie’s rally coincided with broad-based weakness in the British pound, which remains weighed down by fiscal concerns following reports of a worsening UK budget shortfall. As a result, GBP/AUD has become the week’s standout mover for now, falling more than 1.5% to its lowest levels in months.

            Technically, GBP/AUD’s break of 2.0240 support confirms resumption of the decline from 2.1643. More importantly, the decisive break below the 55 W EMA (now at 2.0309) reinforces a bearish bias, confirming a medium-term top at 2.1643 under bearish MACD divergence conditions.

            The fall from 2.1643 high is viewed as at least correcting the entire rise from 1.5925 (2022 low), with scope to even reversing the whole move.

            In either case, as long as 2.0858 resistance holds, the outlook remains bearish with the next target at 38.2% retracement of 1.5925 to 2.1643 at 1.9459.

            Australia inflation shock: CPI surges to 3.2%, core re-accelerates

              By
              ActionForex
              -

              Australia’s inflation surprised sharply to the upside in Q3, reigniting concerns that price pressures are proving stickier than expected. Headline CPI jumped 1.3% qoq, accelerating from 0.7% in Q2 and beating expectations of 1.1% — marking the strongest quarterly increase since Q1 2023. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the largest contributor was a 9.0% rise in electricity costs, which alone drove much of the headline surge.

              On an annual basis, CPI rose to 3.2% yoy, sharply higher than the previous 2.1% yoy and above forecasts of 3.0%. That marks the fastest pace of annual inflation since Q2 2024. Electricity costs were again the main driver, soaring 23.6% from a year earlier despite targeted government relief measures.

              Core inflation was equally strong. Trimmed mean CPI — the RBA’s preferred measure — rose 1.0% qoq, up from 0.7% and above expectations of 0.8%. Annually, core inflation accelerated to 3.0% yoy from 2.7%, underlining persistent price pressures across utilities and essential services, exceeding the RBA’s 2–3% target range again. This marks the first uptick in the trimmed mean since Q4 2022, confirming that underlying price momentum remains firm.

              The data strengthen the case for the RBA to delay or even reconsider rate-cut expectations for the near term.

              Full Australia quarterly CPI release here.

              US consumer confidence dips to 94.6 in October, inflation expectations tick higher to 5.9%

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                U.S. consumer confidence slipped modestly in October, with Conference Board’s headline index easing to 94.6 from 95.6, though still beating expectations of 93.9.

                The breakdown showed mixed sentiment — Present Situation Index improved by 1.8 points to 129.3, while Expectations Index fell by 2.9 points to 71.9, remaining well below the 80 threshold that typically signals recession risks.

                Inflation expectations ticked higher, with the average 12-month outlook rising to 5.9% from 5.8% in September.

                Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at the Conference Board, said confidence “moved sideways in October,” with limited changes among subcomponents that largely offset each other. Consumers grew more cautious about job prospects and business conditions, while optimism toward future income also eased slightly.

                Full US consumer confidence release here.

                ECB survey shows inflation expectations edge lower to 2.7%

                  By
                  ActionForex
                  -

                  The ECB’s September Consumer Expectations Survey showed a modest easing in near-term inflation expectations, with the median outlook for the next 12 months slipping to 2.7% from 2.8%.

                  Expectations for three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5%, while five-year projections held steady at 2.2%, suggesting longer-term views remain well anchored. Uncertainty around the 12-month outlook also stayed unchanged, indicating little shift in household sentiment.

                  On the growth side, consumers’ expectations for economic performance over the next year remained negative but stable, holding at –1.2%. The data continue to reflect subdued confidence in the near-term recover.

                  Unemployment expectations were similarly steady at 10.7% for the 12-month horizon, signaling limited change in labor-market sentiment.

                  Full ECB consumer survey results here.

                  New record possibly delayed to 2026 as Gold and Silver enters extended consolidation phase

                    By
                    ActionForex
                    -

                    Gold and Silver came under renewed pressure at the start of the week. Gold briefly dropped below 4,000 mark before stabilizing, while Silver’s decline gathered pace after breaking key retracement support.

                    The timing of the selloff coincides with the announcement of a new U.S.–China framework deal designed to avert a major tariff escalation in November. The prospect of easing trade tensions has reduced demand for defensive assets, encouraging investors to rotate into equities and risk currencies. Optimism over the pending Trump–Xi summit has also supported broader market confidence.

                    Markets now await two pivotal events: Fed’s policy meeting tomorrow and the Trump–Xi summit on Thursday. These will likely set the near-term tone for the broader markets, including precious metals. Price behavior around these events will reveal whether the current pullback gathers further momentum.

                    So far, technical and macro signals both point to a more extended corrective phase than initially anticipated. Rather than a quick pause before resuming the uptrend, Gold and Silver may need to spend the rest of the year to form a base, laying the groundwork for a new leg higher in 2026.

                    In Gold’s case, the decline still fits within a corrective structure to the rally from 3,267.90. The metal remains above 3,944.57 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 3267.90 to 4381.22 at 3955.93). A rebound from current level and break of 4,161.35 resistance would suggest the pullback from 4,381.22 is complete, targeting a retest of the record high. However, strong resistance is likely to cap gains near the previous peak, keeping Gold confined to a range between roughly 3,944 and 4,381.

                    However, decisive break below 3,944.57 would bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 3,818.40) where stronger demand should emerge to form a base.

                    Silver’s decline has been more pronounced. The metal has already violated 38.2% retracement of 36.93 to 54.44 at 47.75. Still, it remains a correction of the rise from 36.93, rather than a larger one. A drop toward 55 D EMA (now at 45.16) is likely, but solid support is expected there. A rebound through 49.42 would mark the end of this corrective leg and bring stronger rise to retest 54.44.

                    However, sustained weakness below 55 Day EMA would imply Silver has entered a larger corrective phase to the rise from 28.28.

                    German Ifo rises to 88.4 as business expectations improve

                      By
                      ActionForex
                      -

                      Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 in October from 87.7, topping expectations of 87.8. The uptick was driven mainly by stronger optimism about the outlook, even as assessments of current conditions softened. Expectations Index climbed to 91.6 from 89.8, while Current Assessment slipped to 85.3 from 85.7, highlighting that the recovery remains more hopeful than tangible.

                      By sector, the data painted a mixed but improving picture. Manufacturing sentiment strengthened from –13.2 to –11.7, with Ifo noting that “expectations in particular brightened” and the decline in new orders has “come to a halt.” The service sector saw a sharp rebound, rising from –3.0 to –0.1, as providers turned less skeptical about the coming months. Trade confidence also improved from –23.9 to –21.5, while construction slipped slightly from –14.8 to –15.0.

                      Full German Ifo release here.

                      Bitcoin tests 116k resistance as risk-on rally builds in Asia

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        Bitcoin advanced notably today as risk appetite surged across Asia, with equity benchmarks in Japan and South Korea hitting historic milestones. Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2%, breaking above the 50,000 mark for the first time, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 2.1% to cross 4,000. The broad rally reflected optimism that U.S.–China trade negotiations are progressing toward an extension of the tariff truce, fueling a powerful risk-on tone across regional assets.

                        Improving sentiment spilled over into digital markets, with Bitcoin rising in tandem with equities and commodities. Traders appear to be rotating back into higher-risk assets amid easing geopolitical tensions and steady global liquidity.

                        Technically, immediate focus is now on 116,074 resistance. Firm break above that level would confirm that the entire pullback from 126,289 represents only a consolidation to the five-wave rally from 74,373, rather than a larger scale correction. In that case, another rally toward 126,289 would be favored, though that prior high could still act as a cap within the range. Even if the consolidation extends with another downleg, the downside should remain contained above 101,896.

                        Conversely, rejection by 116,074 would undermine the range-bound view and raise the risk of a deeper slide below 101,896. While such a move would likely remain a correction, it would signal that the selling momentum has yet to fully exhaust.

                        Yuan surges as US-China move toward tariff truce framework

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Chinese yuan rallied in Asian session after weekend reports signaled tangible progress toward a new U.S.–China trade framework. Senior economic officials from both countries agreed on the broad outline of a deal that could be finalized when Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet later this week at the APEC summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. The accord aims to extend the existing tariff truce and suspend China’s planned rare-earth export controls, easing one of the key geopolitical risks that has hung over markets for weeks.

                          U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the outcome of the fifth round of talks as “a very successful framework” for the leaders to discuss on Thursday, noting optimism that the tariff pause beyond its November 10 expiry is all but assured. He added that China is expected to resume substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans, ending a complete halt in September when Chinese buyers turned to Brazil and Argentina.

                          Bessent also said Beijing plans to delay by a year the rollout of its rare-earth licensing regime while the policy is reviewed. That concession effectively removes a major supply-chain concern for U.S. manufacturers in the short term.

                          Trump reinforced the upbeat sentiment, telling reporters he believes “we’re going to have a deal with China.”

                          The positive momentum coincided with stronger domestic data from China. Industrial profits surged 21.6% yoy in September, accelerating from 20.4% in August and marking the fastest pace since late 2023. The data lent further support to Chinese assets and Yuan, reinforcing the perception that policy stimulus and improving export volumes are feeding through to corporate earnings.

                          Technically, USD/CNH’s gap-down move today confirmed renewed downside momentum. The rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 7.1532) indicates the corrective bounce from 7.0843 has ended, with sellers regaining control. Break below 7.0843 would resume the broader downtrend from the April high of 7.4287 toward 61.8% projection of 7.2239 to 7.0843 from 7.1532 at 7.0669 next.

                          US PMI composite rises to 54.8, points to sustained strong economic growth

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US business activity expanded at a solid pace in October, with PMI Composite rising from 53.9 to 54.8. Both sectors showed improvement as Manufacturing edged up from 52.0 to 52.2 and Services climbed from 54.2 to 55.2, signaling a broad-based pickup in momentum.

                            According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the data point to “sustained strong economic growth” at the start of the fourth quarter, consistent with an annualized expansion of around 2.5% — similar to the pace seen in Q3.

                            However, optimism about the future weakened noticeably. Williamson noted that business confidence fell to one of the lowest levels in three years, as companies expressed growing concern over the economic fallout from tariffs and uncertain policy direction.

                            Price trends offered a mixed picture. Input costs continued to rise sharply, reflecting the pass-through of tariffs, yet firms struggled to raise prices amid competitive pressures. As a result, selling price inflation cooled to its lowest since April.

                            Full US PMI flash release here.

                            US CPI rises to 3.0%, but core eases, both miss expectations

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              US inflation ticked higher in September, but the details of the report suggested price pressures are cooling beneath the surface. Headline CPI accelerated to 3.0% yoy, up from 2.9% but slightly below expectations of 3.1%. That marks the highest level since January.

                              Though, core CPI — excluding food and energy — slowed from 3.1% to 3.0%, undershooting forecasts and easing from 3.1% in the previous two months. After holding at 3.1% for two consecutive months, the core rate could be entering into a gradual downtrend.

                              On a monthly basis, headline prices rose 0.3% mom, while core prices increased just 0.2%, both softer than expected. Energy costs were again the key driver of the headline gain, with the gasoline index surging 4.1% and the broader energy index up 1.5%. Food prices also continued to edge higher, rising 0.2% as grocery costs climbed more sharply than dining-out prices.

                              Full US CPI release here.

                              UK PMI composite improves to 51.1, but indicates just sluggish 0.1% GDP growth

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                The latest UK flash PMI data offered a glimmer of optimism for the economy, with Manufacturing jumping from 46.2 to 49.6 in October — its highest level in 12 months. Services rose from 50.8 to 51.1, lifting the Composite index from 50.1 to 51.1. The survey suggests business conditions are slowly improving after a soft September, marking the first sign of renewed momentum since midyear.

                                Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the data “brings hope that September was a low point,” noting the first manufacturing growth in over a year and stronger consumer demand for services. He added that inflationary pressures are easing back toward levels “consistent with the Bank of England’s 2% target,” while job losses are moderating and business confidence is ticking up slightly.

                                Still, the overall pace of expansion remains modest, consistent with GDP growth of only about 0.1%. Export weakness persists due to global trade disruptions tied to U.S. tariff policy. Firms are also cautious ahead of the November 26 Budget, with many delaying hiring and investment decisions. While the PMI data point to stabilization, the recovery remains fragile and heavily dependent on fiscal clarity and external demand.

                                Full UK PMI flash release here.

                                Eurozone PMI composite hits 17-mont high, services lead while France drags

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Eurozone business activity accelerated in October, with PMI Composite rising to a 17-month high of 52.2 from 51.2, signaling the strongest expansion since mid-2024. The pickup was driven by services, where PMI Services index jumped from 51.3 to 52.6, a 14-month high, while Manufacturing finally edged up to the neutral 50.0 mark after months of contraction.

                                  However, the upturn remains uneven across major economies. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that France has increasingly become a drag, with its rate of contraction accelerating for two straight months amid political turmoil and budget disputes under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. In contrast, Germany’s outlook “brightened significantly”, helping to lift the bloc’s overall figures. Still, manufacturing has been “stagnating for practically six months,” de la Rubia said, and weak new orders leave “little hope of a turnaround.”

                                  Inflation trends offer some comfort for policymakers. Price pressures in the services sector — a key focus for the ECB — “remain moderate,” with sales price inflation slightly higher but still near long-term averages. The PMI data are therefore unlikely to alter the ECB’s cautious stance, reinforcing expectations that officials will hold off on further rate cuts until clearer signs of sustained disinflation emerge.

                                  Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.

                                  UK retail sales rise 0.5% mom in September, hitting highest level mid-2022

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    UK retail activity surprised to the upside in September, with sales volumes rising 0.5% mom, defying expectations of a -0.2% mom decline. The gain marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase, lifting total sales to their highest level since July 2022. Stronger non-store and clothing sales helped offset weakness in fuel and other discretionary categories.

                                    Over the third quarter, retail volumes grew 0.9% compared with the previous quarter, confirming a steady rebound in household demand through the summer. The good weather in July and August was cited as a key driver, boosting clothing sales and supporting outdoor-related spending. Online and non-store retailers also enjoyed sustained gains.

                                    Full UK retail sales release here.

                                    Japan CPI core Rises to 2.9%, ending three-month slowdown

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      Japan’s inflation picked up in September, with core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising from 2.7% to 2.9% yoy, matching expectations and marking the first acceleration in four months. The key gauge has stayed at or above the BoJ’s 2% target since April 2022. Headline CPI also rose from 2.7% to 2.9% yoy, in line with the core measure.

                                      Underlying momentum was uneven. Core-core CPI, which strips out both energy and fresh food and is considered a closer measure of domestic demand, slowed to 3.0% from 3.3% yoy, suggesting that broader inflationary pressures are gradually easing.

                                      Food prices continued to rise, but at a slower pace — non-fresh food prices gained 7.6%, down from 8.0% in August. Rice prices, which spiked earlier this year, rose 49.2%, their fourth consecutive month of deceleration after peaking at more than 100% growth in May.

                                      Meanwhile, service prices, a metric closely watched by the BoJ for its link to wage growth, increased 1.4%, slightly below August’s 1.5%.

                                      Japan PMI composite falls to 50.9, weak Yen keeps inflation hot

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        Japan’s private sector lost further momentum in October, with both manufacturing and services activity softening, according to S&P Global’s Flash PMI survey. The Manufacturing PMI slipped from 48.5 to 48.3, extending its contraction, while Services PMI fell from 53.3 to 52.4. As a result, Composite index eased from 51.3 to 50.9, signaling the slowest pace of overall growth since May.

                                        Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the survey showed the first decline in new business in 16 months. While the services sector remained the key driver of growth, its fading strength “will be a point of concern” as manufacturing continues to struggle. The factory sector’s downturn deepened, with new orders falling at the fastest pace in 20 months.

                                        Inflationary pressures, however, remained elevated. Both input costs and output charges continued to rise at historically strong rates, driven by higher wage, fuel, and material costs, and alongside by a weaker Yen.

                                        Full Japan PMI flash release here.

                                        Australia PMI composite ticks up to 52.6, easing inflation keeps RBA on easing track

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Australia’s private sector activity sent mixed signals in October, according to the S&P Global Flash PMI survey. Manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction, falling from 51.4 to 49.7, while Services PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.4, lifting the Composite PMI modestly from 52.4 to 52.6. The data suggest that overall business activity grew at a slightly faster pace at the start of Q4, though the underlying picture remains uneven across sectors.

                                          According to Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, the divergence between sectors was striking. Manufacturing “notably worsened,” with new orders dropping further and factories shedding jobs amid pressure on profit margins.

                                          In contrast, services activity expanded at a solid pace, but even there, new business growth and hiring momentum slowed, and business confidence weakened.

                                          On a positive note, price pressures continued to ease, with output price inflation falling to a five-year low. This cooling in inflation dynamics should reassure the RBA, which remains on track to pursue further monetary easing.

                                          Full Australia PMI flash release here.

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