EUR/AUD’s pull back was continued at 1.3872 last week. Subsequent rally and break of 1.4183 resistance indicates resumption hole rebound from 1.3624. The development also affirms our bullish view. That is, medium term trend is reversing after defending 1.3671 key support level, on on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD.

Initial bias in EUR/AUD is back on the upside this week. Further rally should now be seen to 100% projection of 1.3624 to 1.4183 from 1.3872 at 1.4431. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration and target 1.4721 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4051 minor support will turn focus back to 1.3872 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we’d expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5727; (P) 1.5759; (R1) 1.5805; More…

EUR/AUD recovered after hitting 1.5683 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.5853 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5683 will extend the fall from 1.6765 to 61.8% projection of 1.6765 to 1.5721 from 1.6122 at 1.5477. However, firm break of 1.5853 will suggests short term bottoming and bring stronger rise back to 1.6122 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5725 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, though, below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, above 1.5725 will extend the rebound form 1.5578 to retest 1.5888 high.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5525; (P) 1.5566; (R1) 1.5623; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Price actions from 1.5250 are seen as correcting the whole decline from 1.6827. Further rise could be seen through 1.5689 resistance to 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852. On the downside, break of 1.5444 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5250 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4812; (P) 1.4881; (R1) 1.4988; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that whole correction from 1.6587 has completed at 1.3624 already after defending 1.3671 key support level. Further rise should be seen to 1.5094 resistance first. Break there will target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455. On the downside, break of 1.4669 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5891; (P) 1.5977; (R1) 1.6030; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside for 1.5898 support first. Sustained break there will indicate that corrective rise from 1.5250 has already completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5250 low. On the upside, break of 1.6116 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6434 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6004; (P) 1.6047; (R1) 1.6095; More….

A temporary low is in place at 1.5997 with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.5997 will extend the correction fro 1.6765 short term top to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5924) and possibly below. On the upside, above 1.6205 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high), argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low), is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next.

EUR/AUD dipped to 1.4025 last week and breached 1.4072 support briefly. But it quickly lost momentum and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays bearish as the corrective decline from 1.6587 is still in progress. Below 1.4025 will target 1.3671 key support level. We’d expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, above 1.4251 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4271 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.6323 last week but lost momentum retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.6202 minor support holds. Above 1.6323 will target 1.6432 resistance. However, break of 1.6202 will argue that rebound from 1.5976 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.5894/5905 key support zone again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6069) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5894 remains intact. However, firm break of 1.5894 will be an early sign of major topping and turn focus to 1.5346 key support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6093; (P) 1.6160; (R1) 1.6217; More…

With 1.6059 minor support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor in EUR/AUD for retesting 1.6434 high. With 1.5898 support intact, larger rise from 1.5250 is still in progress, and break of 1.6434 will confirm resumption, for 1.6988 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.6059 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5898 structural support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We’d tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6264; (P) 1.6328; (R1) 1.6399; More…

EUR/AUD rises to as high as 1.6484 so far today. Break of 1.6448 resistance indicates resumption of whole rise form 1.5683. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.6765 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6320 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.6247 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, medium term outlook will still remain bullish. Up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5778; (P) 1.5883; (R1) 1.5950; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside at this point. Current decline should target 100% projection of 1.6827 to 1.6122 from 1.6420 at 1.5715. On the downside, above 1.6027 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.9799 is developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5591; (P) 1.5637; (R1) 1.5661; More…

EUR/AUD drops further to 1.5584 so far today. Break of 1.5591 low indicates resumption of down trend from 1.9799. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.6409 to 1.5591 from 1.5945 at 1.5439. On the upside, above 1.5706 minor resistance will delay the bearish case, and extend the consolidation from 1.5591 with another rise.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6827 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6499; (P) 1.6546; (R1) 1.6582; More…

Further decline is expected in EUR/AUD with 1.6662 resistance intact. Firm break of 1.6449 support will argue that the pattern from 1.6319 has completed at 1.6844 as a corrective move, and fall from 1.7062 is ready to resume through 1.6319. On the upside, above 1.6662 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6844 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, while 1.7062 is a medium term top, there is no clear sign of trend reversal as EUR/AUD continues to draw strong support from the medium term trend line. Break of 1.7062 will resume the larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7691 fibonacci level. Nevertheless, break of 1.6449 support will argue that deeper correction is underway to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 at 1.6000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6160; (P) 1.6222; (R1) 1.6275; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in tight range below 1.6301 and intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.6128 minor support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.6308 support turned resistance should confirm completion of whole fall from 1.6789. Further rise should then be seen to 1.6680/6876 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 1.6128 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5894 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6008) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6148; (P) 1.6185; (R1) 1.6221; More…

EUR/AUD is staying in range of 1.6063/6323 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.6323 resistance will resume the rise from 1.5976 to 1.6432 resistance. On the downside, below 1.6063 will target 1.5976 support first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6084) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5559; (P) 1.5655; (R1) 1.5770; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Correction from 1.5976 should have completed at 1.5376. Further rally would be seen for retesting 1.5976 first. Firm break there will resume larger rise from 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.5376 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, it’s still early to confirm if rise from 1.4281 represents bullish trend reversal. But as long as 1.5271 support holds, such rally is in favor to continue. Break of 1.5976 will target 1.6434 key resistance next. On the other hand, firm break of 1.5271 will retain medium term bearishness instead.

EUR/AUD’s correction from 1.6353 last week resumed by taking out 1.6051. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.6353 to 1.6051 from 1.6252 at 1.5950. But downside should be contained above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.5888) to bring rebound and then rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6252 will target a retest on 1.6353 first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3624 key support should indicate long term reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5971; (P) 1.6003; (R1) 1.6034; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.5970 temporary low. On the downside, below 1.5970 will extend the decline from 1.6314 to 1.5894/5906 key support zone. On the upside, above 1.6071 will turn bias back to the upside for recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5894 support holds, outlook remains bullish. Firm break of 1.6786 will resume up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Next upside target is 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488. However, sustained break of 1.5894 will have 55 week EMA (now at 1.6081) firmly taken out too. That should indicate medium term topping and target 1.5346 key support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6173; (P) 1.6227; (R1) 1.6320; More….

EUR/AUD rises to as high as 1.6306 so far today. The break of 1.6252 resistance confirmed that pull back from 1.6353 has completed with three waves down to 1.5984. And, larger up trend is ready to resume. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.6353 resistance first. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6220 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 1.5984 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.