EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

EUR/AUD dipped to 1.4025 last week and breached 1.4072 support briefly. But it quickly lost momentum and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Near term outlook stays bearish as the corrective decline from 1.6587 is still in progress. Below 1.4025 will target 1.3671 key support level. We’d expect downside to be contained there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, above 1.4251 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.4271 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 high first.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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