EUR/JPY gyrated lower last week with weak downside momentum. Initial bias stays mildly on the downside this week for 115.86/116.12 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. On the upside, break of 119.03 will extend recent consolidation from 115.86 with another rise leg.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high), as well as below falling 55 week EMA. As long as 122.87 resistance holds, the down trend form 137.49 should extend to 109.48 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 122.87 will indicate medium term bullish reversal.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 124.84), this is the preferred case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.98; (P) 117.48; (R1) 117.82; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 117.07 temporary low. With 118.47 resistance intact, further decline is expected. Corrective recovery from 115.86 should have completed at 120.01. Break of 117.07 will target a retest on 115.86 low. On the upside, above 118.47 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 120.01 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.12; (P) 129.88; (R1) 130.37; More…

Break of 129.65 minor support argues that rise from 127.55 is completed at 131.69. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 127.55 support first. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and deeper fall would be seen back to 122.39/125.80 support zone. On the upside, break of 131.69 is needed to confirm rally. Resumption. Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective price action in near term, with risk of deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 124.08 will argue that rise from 109.03 is completed and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.48; (P) 138.23; (R1) 139.44; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rally from 113.38 should target 100% projection of 133.38 to 138.38 from 135.50 at 140.50. Decisive break there will indicate upside acceleration, and raise the chance of up trend resumption through 144.26 high. On the downside, below 137.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Further rally is in favor as long as 134.11 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back. Next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 134.11 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and turn focus to 124.37 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.92; (P) 163.22; (R1) 163.55; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral gain with current retreat. On the upside, above 163.70 will resume the rise from 153.15 to 164.29 high. However, considering loss of momentum as seen in 4H MACD, break of 162.55 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 164.29 medium term top are seen as a correction to rise from 139.05 only. As long as 148.38 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is expected to resume through 164.29 at a later stage. Next target would be 169.96 (2008 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.42; (P) 125.72; (R1) 126.15; More….

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidation from 127.07 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Further rise is still expected as long as 124.44 support holds. Break of 127.07 will target 128.67 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 124.44 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.54) holds. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.81; (P) 132.78; (R1) 133.32; More….

EUR/JPY is still bounded in range of 131.16/134.48 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise is expected as long as 131.16 support holds. Decisive break of 134.48 will resume medium term rise from 114.84 and target 141.04 resistance next. However, sustained break of 131.16 support will now indicate near term trend reversal and turn outlook bearish for 127.55 key support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will suggest medium term topping and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall back to 114.84/124.08 support zone at least.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.80; (P) 120.97; (R1) 121.26; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 115.86 should target 161.8% projection of 115.86 to 120.01 from 117.07 at 123.78 next. On the downside, below 120.67 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom is formed at 115.86, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, ahead of 114.84 support. Decisive of 120.78 support turned resistance will affirm this case and bring further rise to falling channel resistance (now at 126.00). Reactions from there would decide whether the medium term has reversed. For now, further rise is expected as long as 117.07 support holds.

EUR/JPY’s rise from 115.86 resumed last week and surged to as high as 122.65. A temporary top was formed there with subsequent retreat and initial bias is neutral this week first. Downside should be contained above 119.99 support to bring another rally. Prior support from 55 day EMA is a sign of near term bullishness. On the upside, break of 122.65 will target 123.35 resistance first. Break will target key channel resistance (now at 124.72).

In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is still staying in the falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). Rise from 115.86 is seen as a corrective rise for the moment. Strong resistance could be seen at falling channel resistance (now at 124.72) to limit upside. However, sustained break of the channel resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 127.50 key resistance next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.72), this is the preferred case.

EUR/JPY edged higher to 130.65 last week but retreated since then. Breach of 129.47 support indicates short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for pull back. But downside should be contained above 127.48 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. But for now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 130.65 holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 125.07 support holds. Next target is 137.49 (2018 high).

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

EUR/JPY recovered to 125.23 last week but failed to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and reversed. The development is inline with the view that fall from 126.79, which is the third leg of pattern from 127.50, is still in progress. Initial bias stays neutral this week first with focus on 124.09. Break there will turn bias to the downside for 123.65 and below. On the upside, however, break of 125.23 resistance will now suggest short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) yet. Break of 123.39 support will favor of down trend extension and target 118.62 low. However, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Further decisive break medium term channel resistance will affirm reversal and target 133.12 key resistance and above.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.03 low. On the upside, break of 133.12 resistance bring retest of 149.76 (2014 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.45; (P) 141.91; (R1) 142.45; More….

No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays on the upside for retesting 144.23 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 137.83 will turn bias back to the downside to extend the correction from 144.23.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06 will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

EUR/JPY extended the corrective pattern from 133.44 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of deeper pull back, downside should be contained above 130.45 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 133.44 will target 134.11 high first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend from 114.42. Next target is 61.8% projection of 121.63 to 134.11 from 127.91 at 135.62.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress and the strong support support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Further rise would be seen to retest 137.49 (2018 high). Decisive break there will resume the whole long term rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 109.03 to 137.49 from 114.42 at 142.88. This will now remain the favored case as long as 127.91 support holds.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

EUR/JPY surged to as high as 129.96 last week but formed a temporary top there since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first some consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 127.48 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 129.96 will resume the up trend from 121.63 to 121.63 to 127.48 from 125.07 at 130.92 next. However, firm break of 127.48 will turn bias to the downside, for deeper decline to 125.07 support.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. Further rise is expected as long as 125.07 support holds. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.42 at 128.67 will pave the way to 137.49 resistance next.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.41; (P) 125.68; (R1) 125.83; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 127.07 is extending. Further rise is still expected as long as 124.44 support holds. Break of 127.07 will resume larger rise from 114.42 to 128.67 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 124.44 will confirm short term topping and turn bias to the downside for deeper correction, to 55 day EMA (now at 123.93).

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 119.31 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.01; (P) 129.28; (R1) 129.50; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside, as fall from 130.73 is in progress for retesting 127.91 low. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 134.11 to 127.07 key resistance turned support. On the upside, above 129.63 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 130.73 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

EUR/JPY’s rally continued last week and reached as high as 126.75. As a temporary top was formed there, initial bias is neutral this week first. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.31 support holds. Break of 126.75 will target 100% projection of 114.42 to 124.43 from 119.31 at 129.32. Nevertheless, break of 124.31 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) could have completed at 114.42 already. Rise from 114.42 would target 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 114.42 at 128.67 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to 137.49 (2018 high). This will remain the preferred case for now, as long as 55 day EMA (now at 122.54) holds. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another low below 114.42 at a later stage.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 124.54) should confirm the start of another medium term rising leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.04; (P) 127.55; (R1) 128.09; More….

EUR/JPY’s strong rebound and breach of 128.50 minor resistance argues that pull back from 130.33 is completed at 126.63. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 130.33 first. Break will resume the rebound from 124.61 and target 133.47 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 126.63 will turn focus back to 124.61 low.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.15; (P) 141.49; (R1) 142.07; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 142.84 resistance will argue that the correction from 148.38 has completed. Stronger rally should then be seen back to 146.71 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 137.37 will resume the whole decline from 148.38 to 135.40 fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 week EMA (now at 138.81) holds, larger up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still in progress for 149.76 long term resistance. However, firm break of 55 week EMA will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. Sustained break there will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 127.39.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.26; (P) 130.79; (R1) 131.13; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral as the cross lost momentum after hitting 131.39. On the downside, break of 129.83 support will indicate short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. This will be supported by the wave four like triangle consolidation from 130.76 to 129.83. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 127.37). On the upside, above 131.39 will extend recent rally to long term fibonacci level at 134.20.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 125.80 resistance turned support holds.