Market movers ahead
- Next week is swamped with key events to follow. On Monday, the outcome of the G7 meeting will be digested ahead of the highly expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean peer Kim-Jong Un in Singapore on Tuesday.
- From Wednesday to Friday, the focus turns to very important central bank meetings. On Wednesday, the FOMC will meet and we expect it to hike the policy rates again and take another step closer to a neutral rate. On Thursday, the ECB meets to decide whether it take another step in forward guidance. We think this would be premature and await an announcement only in July but we do expect hawkish bits for next week. Finally, on Friday, the Bank of Japan is due to meet, although we have no expectations for new policy signals.
- The US-China trade war will be on full display on Friday, when we expect the US President to decide whether he will impose a tax on Chinese exports worth USD50bn.
- In Scandinavia, Danish and Swedish inflation are set to be in focus on Monday.
Global macro and market themes
- Global growth has slowed but is set to stay above the potential growth rate.
- Volatility has increased but fundamentals are still solid.
- We expect gradual monetary policy tightening amid muted inflation pressures.