Mon, Dec 05, 2022 @ 01:09 GMT
HomeContributorsFundamental AnalysisWeek Ahead – Recession Fears Mounting

Week Ahead – Recession Fears Mounting

US

Now that Wall Street has had some time to digest the FOMC decision, the focus shifts to how quickly the economy is weakening and a wave of Fed speak.  A wide range of economic releases includes more Fed regional surveys, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, new home sales, initial jobless claims, personal income & spending, and the PCE deflator.

An overwhelming amount of Fed speak include 16 appearances by policymakers.  Monday is filled with comments from Fed’s Collins, Bostic, Logan, and Mester. On Tuesday, Chair Powell will participate in a panel on digital currencies. Evans, Bullard, and Daly will also speak. Wednesday has appearances from Bostic, Bullard, and Evans. Thursday’s speakers include Bullard, Mester, and Daly. On Friday, both Brainard and Williams speak at the Fed conference on Financial Stability.

EU 

Next week is littered with appearances from ECB policymakers which comes at a good time following a raft of massive rate hikes around the world and as we get the latest flash inflation figures for September.

The Italian general election on Sunday will also be interesting, with it expected to end in victory for the far-right.

UK

There’s been a lot to process this week from the latest rate hike to the supposed “mini-budget” and subsequent sterling plunge. There’s a lot of heat on the UK economy and government at the moment and all of that tax cutting has added fuel to the fire rather than put it out. Next week will tell us if the UK could already be in recession as the final reading of second-quarter GDP is released. The last reading was -0.1% so a small positive revision could be enough to kick the technical recession down the road, not that it actually changes anything.

Apart from that, we have a few appearances from BoE policymakers to look forward to.

Russia

The focus next week will be on the “referendums” in Russian-controlled territories of eastern Ukraine and what the Kremlin will do next. The rhetoric has become far more aggressive recently amid constant reference to its nuclear might and ability to use it.

On the economy, unemployment data will be released which seems very insignificant in the grand scheme of things.

South Africa

PPI data is expected to show pressures slightly softening, albeit from 18% to 17.6%. This comes after CPI data last week fell at a slower pace than expected and the SARB hiked rates by 75 basis points to 6.25%. With two of the five members of the MPC voting for 100bps, further tightening looks likely at upcoming meetings.

Turkey

With inflation running above 80%, the CBRT obviously cut the repo rate by another 100bps to 12%. Which makes observing the data feel a bit pointless at times but only here will the cost of this monetary policy experiment show up. Next week has little to offer on that front, with the few releases being tier two and three.

Switzerland

The SNB opted for a 75bps rate hike this month and warned that it could intervene in the currency markets – despite referencing the benefits of the stronger franc – and hold an emergency meeting if necessary before the next scheduled quarterly gathering in December.

As far as next week is concerned, the quarterly bulletin on Tuesday will be of interest, as will the retail sales number and KOF and ZEW surveys.

China

On Friday, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will be released. As a result of the historically hot and dry weather extremes in 14 provinces and cities in China from July to August, many provinces are experiencing water and electricity shortages. At the same time, China’s house prices have been falling for 12 consecutive months, and the house price inflation rate has dropped to -2.1 % on an annual basis.

Real estate has always been the main component of Chinese household wealth and a pillar industry of the economy. The continuous decline of this data indicates that consumption is and will remain weak.

This may suggest further weakness in the data and could further weigh on the yuan as the PBOC continues to prop it up.

India

The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate again on Friday but by a smaller margin of just 35bps. There is scope for more though, with some suggesting 50 could be on the table.

Australia & New Zealand

The August retail sales are to be released next Wednesday. Data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner, could have an impact on the Australian dollar next week, as could risk appetite which has weighed on the currency in recent weeks.

A serious downturn in the New Zealand ANZ business outlook and confidence for September on Thursday could weigh on the kiwi in the short term and even get the attention of the central bank as it aggressively tightens monetary policy. The currency could also be sensitive to Chinse data and the risk environment.

Japan

The Ministry of Finance stole the spotlight on Thursday as it conducted its first FX intervention in 24 years. This came as the BoJ held firm on its monetary policy stance after the Fed hiked by 75 basis points, sending USD/JPY above 145. It was around this point that the BoJ carried out a rate check recently and just above here that the last intervention was conducted in 1998.

Next week brings a whole host of economic data as well as the BoJ minutes (from the July meeting, not September). Pressure could mount on the BoJ in the coming months as it can’t rely on the MoF to tame the decline in the currency longer term.

Singapore

Industrial production figures will be released on Monday.

Data last week showed inflation rising from 7% to 7.5% in August, far ahead of expectations of 7.2%. Singapore’s Minister of Finance, Lawrence Wong, has said that inflation in Singapore will peak by the end of this year.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Sept. 24

Economic Events

  • General debate continues at the UN General Assembly in New York. Sergei Lavron due to speak
  • German Chancellor Scholz begins a trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hits the seven-month mark

Sunday, Sept. 25

Economic Events

  • Italian general election is expected to result in a far-right victory
  • UK Labour Party conference takes place in Liverpool
  • US Vice President Harris will travel to Japan and South Korea and lead the presidential delegation to the state funeral of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Monday, Sept. 26

Economic Data/Events

  • Germany IFO business climate
  • Japan PMI
  • Singapore industrial production
  • Thailand trade, manufacturing production index, capacity utilization
  • Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks at the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce event
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic discusses income and wealth inequality at a Washington Post event
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the economic outlook at an MIT event
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde appears before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels
  • ECB policymakers Joachim Nagel and Fabio Panetta speak at a Bundesbank’s ­symposium
  • BOE’s Tenreyro speaks at the E-Axes Forum webinar

Tuesday, Sept. 27

Economic Data/Events

  • US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, durable goods
  • China industrial profits
  • Japan PPI services, machine tool orders
  • Mexico international reserves, trade, unemployment
  • South Korea consumer confidence
  • Taiwan monitoring indicator
  • ECB’s Villeroy and Panetta, Fed Chair Powell and BIS’s Carstens speak at the Bank of France Seminar on Tokenization of Finance
  • Chicago Fed President Evans speaks at an event in London hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.
  • Sweden’s Riksbank Governor Ingves speaks on the economic situation and current monetary policy at Nordea in London
  • Bank of England chief economist Pill, St. Louis Fed President Bullard and ECB Vice President de Guindos speak at Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum
  • Japan holds a state funeral in Tokyo for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Wednesday, Sept. 28

Economic Data/Events

  • US wholesale inventories
  • Australia retail sales
  • Japan leading index, coincident index
  • Russia industrial production, unemployment
  • Thailand rate decision: Expected to raise rates by 25bp to 1.00%
  • EIA crude oil inventory report
  • San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks in a virtual moderated Q&A at an Asian banking symposium in Singapore
  • Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks in a moderated Q&A on leadership in banking hosted by the Atlanta Fed
  • Chicago Fed President Evans to discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook at an event hosted by the London School of Economics
  • The Milken Institute’s 9th annual Asian Summit kicks off in Singapore
  • ECB President Lagarde gives opening remarks at the Frankfurt Forum on US-European geoeconomics
  • Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson speaks about current monetary policy at a breakfast meeting at Handelsbanken
  • BOE Deputy Governor Cunliffe gives the keynote speech on payments systems at AFME’s innovation conference

Thursday, Sept. 29

Economic Data/Events

  • US initial jobless claims, GDP
  • Australia job vacancies
  • Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
  • Germany CPI
  • Mexico rate decision: Expected to raise Overnight Rate 75bp to 9.25%
  • New Zealand business confidence
  • Spain CPI
  • ECB Governing Council members Simkus, Centeno, de Guindos, Kazaks and Muller speak at a central banking conference in Vilnius, Lithuania
  • Cleveland Fed President Mester and ECB Executive Board member Lane take part in a policy panel during a Cleveland Fed conference on inflation
  • ECB’s Villeroy, Knot and Elderson speak at a climate conference in Amsterdam. San Francisco Fed President Daly gives keynote speech at Boise Steve University
  • ECB Governing Council member Rehn speaks on the euro area economic outlook and monetary policy at a Bank of Finland news conference in Helsinki
  • Riksbank Deputy Governor Ohlsson to discuss the economic situation at Swedbank in Uppsala
  • Deputy Governor Floden to speak on monetary policy at the Nordic Forum in Stockholm
  • BOE’s executive director Hauser speaks at a Market News event on “The Bank of England’s balance sheet”

Friday, Sept. 30

Economic Data/Events

  • US consumer income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • Fed Vice Chair Brainard and New York Fed President Williams speak at Fed conference on financial stability
  • Deadline for the US government shutdown
  • ECB Executive Board member Schnabel joins panel “Fight against inflation” at La Toja Forum 2022 in Pontevedra, Spain
  • Riksbank Governor Ingves speaks about digital currencies and decentralized finance in Stockholm
  • EU energy ministers meet in Brussels on the current crisis
  • Australia private sector credit
  • China PMI, Caixin PMI, BoP
  • Czech Republic GDP
  • Eurozone CPI, unemployment
  • France CPI
  • Germany unemployment
  • Hong Kong retail sales, budget balance, money supply
  • India rate decision: Expected to raise Repurchase Rate by 35 bps to 5.75%
  • India fiscal deficit, eight infrastructure industries
  • Italy CPI, unemployment
  • Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, consumer confidence
  • New Zealand building permits, consumer confidence
  • Poland CPI
  • Singapore money supply
  • South Africa trade balance
  • Thailand trade, BoP, forward contracts, foreign reserves
  • UK GDP

Sovereign Rating Updates

  • Poland (S&P)
  • Turkey (S&P)
  • Italy (Moody’s)
  • France (DBRS)
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