Market movers ahead

  • In the US we expect PCE inflation to moderate to 1.5% y/y in October in line with CPI numbers, due to negative contributions from the energy component.
  • We forecast a rebound in euro area HICP inflation in November to 1.6% y/y, driven by a recovery in core inflation and higher energy prices.
  • In the UK, PMI manufacturing for November is due, which we expect to increase in line with higher euro area PMIs.
  • October inflation figures released in Japan will likely show that underlying price pressures remain muted.
  • In Scandinavia Q3 GDP data are in focus for Denmark and Sweden.

Global macro and market themes

  • Fed increasingly worried over lack of inflation; US curve flattening continues.
  • The ECB could decouple the QE decision from the inflation outlook; EUR/USD upside risks remain in 2018.
  • Riksbank worries over Swedish housing risks set to keep SEK weak but rates have yet to adjust.

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