US 10-year yield resume recent free fall today and breaks 2.5 handle with ease. At the time of writing, it’s down -0.034 at 2.475. As noted before, TNX has likely completed the corrective recovery from 2.356 at 2.614, after rejection by 55 day EMA. Focus is now immediately on 2.463 support. Firm break there would confirm this bearish view. Larger decline from 3.248 should then be resuming.
And, in the bigger picture, TNX was also rejected by long term channel support turned resistance, and held well below 55 week EMA. Break of above mentioned 2.463 near term support will likely send TNX to 50% retracement of 1.336 to 3.248 at 2.292. We’ll then see if bullish convergence condition in daily MACD could contain downside there.
