US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month from 93.9 to 86.0, missing expectations of 87.1. Present Situation Index dipped slightly by -0.9 points to 113.5. But the real alarm came from Expectations Index, which plummeted by -12.5 points to 5.4, the lowest level since October 2011. It is far below the threshold of 80, which traditionally signals a recession is likely within the next year.
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist at The Conference Board, noted that the deterioration was driven almost entirely by weakening expectations around business conditions, employment prospects, and future income.
Of particular concern, the percentage of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months surged to 32.1%, a level last seen during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009. For the first time in five years, expectations about future income prospects turned negative, suggesting that economic worries are now spilling over into personal financial concerns.
