AUD/JPY extended its advance today, with mild acceleration following the RBA’s hawkish hold. Governor Michele Bullock’s explicit dismissal of further rate cuts—and her acknowledgement that rate hikes could be on the table next year—provided the catalyst for renewed Aussie buying. Against this, persistent Yen softness remains a dominant background theme, with markets still doubting that a BoJ hike later this month will materially strengthen the currency.
Technically, the sustained break above the near-term rising channel ceiling signals that an upside acceleration phase is underway. The rise from 86.03 (2025 low) is now tracking toward 161.8% projection of 94.38 to 100.93 from 96.24 at 106.83. Outlook will stay firmly bullish with 100.93 resistance turned support intact, on any pullback.
In the bigger structure, the decisive break of 102.39 structure resistance confirms that corrective decline from 109.36 (2024 high) has ended with a three-wave drop to 86.03. It is still too early to determine whether the current rally is simply the second leg within a larger corrective pattern from 109.36, or the resumption of the long-term uptrend that began at 59.85 in 2020.
Either way, upside is favored while the 55 Wk EMA (now at 97.50) remains intact, for retesting 109.36. Yet, whether 109.36 gives way will be determined by the RBA’s timeline for tightening.
