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DOW future up 1500 pts as coronavirus vaccine now 90% effective, AUD/JPY soars

Sentiments are given a massive boost after Pfizer and BioNTech said today that their COVID-19 vaccine is now over 90% effective. The companies have began manufacturing the vaccine already, before knowing whether it would be effect, to save time to help fighting the pandemic that has plagued the world...

US 30 Index Heads North In Possible Charge To New All-Time Highs

The US 30 index (cash) created five straight positive days after the bounce off the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) around the 26,077 support level. Over the last four months, the price has been developing within a slightly bearish channel and the technical indicators are mixed. The MACD is...

Euro and Dollar Turn Mixed as Global Stocks Rebound

Commodity currencies are taking control into US session with help from rebound in European indices. DOW future is also currently up around 450 pts. Canadian Dollar came out of the shadow of steep decline in oil prices, leading Aussie and Kiwi. At the time of writing, Sterling is the...

DOW targeting 26537 support after gap down

DOW gapped lower today and hit as low as 26579.14 so far. The decline then slowed as seen in 10-min chart. But that shouldn't be taken as indication of bottoming yet. A break above today's high (the lower end of the gap) at 27102.14 is needed to be the...

Currencies Shrug Stocks Selloff, Dollar Rebound Lacks Conviction

Movements in the forex markets remain relatively limited and indecisive. There were little reaction to the steep decline in US stocks overnight, which is followed by broad based weakness in Asia. For now, Dollar, Yen and Kiwi are the firmer ones for the week. Canadian Dollar remains the worst...

DOW lost -650 pts on triple whammy of stimulus, coronavirus and elections

US stocks were knocked down by triple whammy of stalled stimulus talks, record coronavirus infections, and election uncertainties. Traders are clearly reducing risk exposures. DOW closed down -650 pts, or -2.29%, at 27685.38. The break of 55 day EMA should now confirm rejection by 29199.35 resistance on the prior...

Sterling to Take the Limelight as Dollar Takes a Breather

Dollar recovers mildly in Asian session today but remains generally weak, as the worst performing one for the week so far. Sellers appear to be taking a breather for now, and wait for fresh development regarding fiscal stimulus, as well as the final Presidential debate before election. For now,...

US moved closer to fresh fiscal stimulus, stocks shrug, yields surge

After a 48-minute phone call, US Treasury Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appeared to move closer to an agreement on fresh fiscal stimulus. Yet, time is running out for passing any deal before election. Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said the negotiators moved "closer to being able to put...

US targeting fiscal deal in 48 hours after sunny optimistic morning

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told Fox Business today, "the last 24 hours have moved the ball down the field" with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on fresh fiscal stimulus. And the goal now is "some kind of deal in the next 48 hours or so." White House economic...

US Stocks: Don’t Stop Believing

S&P 500, Dow Jones index set to post second consecutive weekly gain. Stocks fuelled by hopes over US fiscal stimulus. 'Blue Sweep' optimism capped by major upcoming risks. US and European equity futures are rising, although Asian stocks are mixed, as investors hold on to hope that the US...

Dollar Rebounds, Stocks Reversed as Trump Pulled Out of Stimulus Talks Abruptly

Dollar and Yen staged strong rebounds overnight, as stocks tumbled after US President Donald Trump halted stimulus talks abruptly. Though, markets somewhat stabilized in Asian session. Swiss Franc and Euro remain the strongest ones for the week for far but both have already pared back much of earlier gains....

US stocks tumbled as Trump pulled out of stimulus talks

US stocks staged a reversal and tumbled sharply overnight after US President Donald Trump halted stimulus negotiations with Democrats, until after election. He revealed in a tweet "I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major...

Aussie Steady after RBA, Dollar Weak Despite Surging Yields

The forex markets are relatively steady in Asian session today, despite strong moves in stocks and treasury yields overnight. Australian Dollar is treading water after RBA left monetary policies unchanged. It's clear that the central is paving the way for more easing to support the job market. But the...

DOW broke last week’s high while Trump returned to White House

US stocks closed with strong gains overnight while President Donald Trump also returned to the White House after a three-night hospital stay due to coronavirus infection. DOW ended up 1.68%, S&P 500 rose 1.80%. NASDAQ rose 2.32%. DOW and S&P 500 led this time, breaking through last week's high while...

Three Takeaways for Traders from a Debacle of a US Presidential Debate

Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the legitimacy of the election regardless of the outcome has stoked fears of a contentious legal battle and/or civil unrest over the result of the election. When the biggest takeaway from a first debate is that perhaps we shouldn’t have any more debates (or...

DOW breaks 55 day EMA, heading back to 25000

DOW opens sharply lower and it's trading down nearly -900 pts at the time of writing. The strong break of 55 day EMA (now at 27340), and bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, suggests that 29199.35 is at least a short term top. Currently, we're viewing it as a...

US 30 Index Withdraws From Fresh High, Bullish Bias Intact

US 30 stock index (Cash) retreated from the vicinity of 29,168, that being the 150.0% Fibonacci extension of the down wave from 27,632 to 24,560. The positive picture seems safeguarded by the advancing 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), and may receive a boost from the approaching bullish...

Dollar Dived on New Fed Strategy, Aussie Shone ahead of a Key Week

Dollar tumbled sharply, and broadly last week as markets perceive Fed's adoption of average inflation targeting as a dovish move. Nevertheless, selloff were mainly against commodity currencies and, to a lesser extent, Sterling. The greenback ended in range against Euro, Swiss Franc and Gold. Even Gold just gyrated inside...

US 30 Index Improves Above MA’s and Ichimoku Cloud

US 30 stock index (Cash) is preserving its recent positive sentiment despite a pullback from the 27,178 level. The climb in the index is aided by the upward sloping simple moving averages (SMAs). Furthermore, the intact positive charge of the Ichimoku lines and the distancing of the red Tenkan-sen...

Dollar Tumbles as Fed Stimulus Hope Boosts Risk-On Trades

Risk-on trades dominated the US markets overnight, as Fed officials indicated the willingness to keep accommodative measures in place. Yet, sentiments turned mixed in Asian markets. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks are weighed down by US President Donald Trump's decision to end Hong Kong's special status, after China imposed...

Oil price tumbles, DOW down -2%

Both oil price and DOW drop notably in early US session today. WTI is now back at around 39.50 after hitting as high as 40.97 yesterday. Our view is unchanged that price actions from 41.39 are forming a corrective pattern. The break of 39.79 minor support argues that the...

Risk Reversal Building Up on Coronavirus and US-China Tensions

The conditions for risk reversal continued to build up last week and somewhat intensified. On the one hand, daily new coronavirus cases surged to new high for the world world, as well as for the US. Daily global new deaths were steady and the US death tolls trended down....

Dollar Rebounds in Risk-off Markets, Underlying Strength Still in Question

Dollar rebounds broadly as markets turned into risk-off mode overnight. It remains firm in quiet trading in Asia, with China and Hong Kong on holiday. The movements in the forex markets are not decisive enough yet. Major pairs and crosses are back inside last week's range. Job and durable...

DOW dropped -710pts as near term consolidations extend

DOW dropped -710.16 pts, or -2.72%, overnight on worries of resurgence of coronavirus infections and transatlantic trade war. The technically development was not surprising though as the index remains bounded in consolidation from 27580.21 short term top. 55 day EMA (now at 25177) will be the first line of...

Coronavirus Cases Skyrocketed Again, But Risk Seekers Not Giving Up Yet

Just like many governments and central bankers, the markets were torn between the optimism over re-opening of the economic, and the imminent risk of coronavirus second wave. This is reflected in the general strength in Yen, Dollar and Swiss Franc last week. Yet, commodity currencies were relatively resilient, as...

Sentiments Took a U-Turn on Fear of Coronavirus Second Wave

The second wave of coronavirus pandemic had finally become a main theme in the markets last week. Or, investors could have just waited for Fed to confirm its done with more easing for moment, and started profit taking. Either way, massive selloff was seen in the stock markets towards...

Risk Aversion Eased Mildly in Asia after Massive Selloff in US

Risk aversion carries on in Asian session today, after the massive selloff in the US overnight. But selling has some what eased ahead of the weekend. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc remain the strongest ones for the week, even though both are paring some gains. Dollar...

DOW in third leg of medium term correction after -6.9% fall

DOW tumbled sharply overnight by -1861.82 pts or -6.90% to close at 25128.17, near to day low. A short term top was formed at 27580.21 without a doubt. Our preferred view is that rebound from 18213.65 is the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 29568.57, which...

Old and New Risks Ignored So Far, Dollar to Decide Reversal or Not Soon

Some old and new global risks, other than coronavirus, have been (re-)emerging in recent weeks. US-China relation is heading another step towards cold war with US President Donald Trump's new set of measures against China announced on Friday. Unrest that started in Minneapolis quickly spread from Los Angeles to Miami...

Have Stocks ‘Gotten Over’ the Virus?

There’s been a lot of talk for a powerful V-shaped recovery, but that has only happened in the stock market, which is ignoring the rising economic and geopolitical risks and is instead plowing higher, powered by a tsunami of stimulus. Alas, at current levels equities imply a ‘painless’ recession,...