Sat, Apr 25, 2026 21:24 GMT
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    Euro-Zone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Unexpectedly Deteriorated In October

    GCI Financial

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.1769, after a surprise fall in the Euro-zone's ZEW economic sentiment index.

    Data indicated that the Euro-zone's ZEW economic sentiment index surprisingly eased to a level of 26.7 in October, defying market consensus for an increase to a level of 34.2 and after recording a reading of 31.7 in the previous month. On the other hand, the region's final consumer price index (CPI) climbed 1.5% on an annual basis in September, confirming the flash print and following a similar rise in the previous month.

    Separately, mood among German investors slightly improved to a level of 17.6 in October, on the back of upbeat prospects for German exports as well as the broader economy. However, the index fell short of market expectations of a rise to a level of 20.0 and compared to a level of 17.0 in the previous month. On the contrary, the nation's ZEW current situation index registered an unexpected drop to a level of 87.0 in October, confounding market consensus for an advance to a level of 88.5. In the prior month, the index had recorded a level of 87.9.

    The greenback advanced against its major counterparts, following a string of robust economic releases in the US.

    Data showed that the US industrial production rebounded 0.3% on a monthly basis in September, meeting market expectations. Industrial production had recorded a revised drop of 0.70% in the previous month. Also, the nation's manufacturing production rebounded 0.1% MoM in September, following a revised fall of 0.2% in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for an increase of 0.2%. Moreover, the nation's NAHB housing market index unexpectedly advanced to a five-month high level of 68.0 in October, compared to a level of 64.00 in the previous month. Markets were anticipating the index to record a steady reading.

    Other economic data showed that the US import price index recorded a rise of 0.7% on a monthly basis in September, posting the biggest gain since June 2016 and compared to a gain of 0.6% in the prior month. Markets were anticipating the index to rise 0.6%. Further, the nation's export price index increased 0.8% MoM in September, surpassing market expectations for an advance of 0.5% and following a revised rise of 0.7% in the prior month.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1773, with the EUR trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.1745, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1716. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1793, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1812.

    Going ahead, investors will focus on a speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi along with the Euro-zone's construction output data for August, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, housing starts and building permits data, both for September followed by the Federal

    Reserve's Beige Book report, all scheduled to release later today, will be on investors' radar.

    The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    UK Consumer Prices Rise The Most Since 2012 In September

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.43% against the USD and closed at 1.3192, following comments from the Bank of England (BoE) Governor.

    The BoE Governor, Mark Carney, warned that “more likely than not”, inflation in Britain would peak above 3.0% in the coming months and reiterated that a rate hike might be appropriate in the coming months. Further, Carney also stressed the importance of avoiding a so-called hard Brexit and that a transition agreement is in everyone’s interests.

    On the macro front, UK’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% on a yearly basis in September, meeting market expectations and jumping to a more than five-year high level, thus amplifying pressure on the BoE to raise interest rates in the near-term. The CPI had registered a rise of 2.9% in the previous month.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3196, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.3138, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3081. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3270, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3345.

    Moving ahead, market participants would eye Britain’s ILO unemployment rate and average earnings for the three months to August, due to release in a few hours.

    The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

    Japanese Yen Trading Flat In The Morning Session

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the JPY and closed at 112.18.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.18, with the USD trading flat against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 111.99, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.79. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.43, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.67.

    Going ahead, Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade balance for September, due to release overnight, will attract significant amount of market attention.

    The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    Swiss Franc Trading Marginally Higher This Morning

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.25% against the CHF and closed at 0.9781.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9778, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 0.9756, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9735. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9804, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9831.

    Amid a lack of macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

    The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    Loonie Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning

    For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CAD and closed at 1.2514.

    In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2501, with the USD trading 0.1% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

    The pair is expected to find support at 1.2462, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2424. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2565, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2630.

    Ahead in the day, traders will look forward to Canada’s manufacturing shipments data for August.

    The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1735; (P) 1.1767 (R1) 1.1798; More...

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.1669 support. Break there will confirm resumption of the whole corrective fall from 1.2091. In that case, EUR/USD will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Strong support is expected there to complete the correction. On the upside, above 1.1879 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high.

    In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

    EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

    EUR/USD Daily Chart

    GBP/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3136; (P) 1.3211; (R1) 1.3269; More....

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.3026 minor support will indicate that recovery is completed at 1.3337. And fall from 1.3651 is resuming for 1.2773 support. That will revive that case that medium term rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.3651. Meanwhile, above 1.3337 will bring retest of 1.3651 high instead.

    In the bigger picture, while the medium term rebound from 1.1946 was strong, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Outlook is turned a bit mixed and we'll turn neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.2773 key support will argue that rebound from 1.1946 has completed. The corrective structure of rise from 1.1946 to 1.3651 will in turn suggest that long term down trend is now completed. Break of 1.1946 low should then be seen. On the upside, break of 1.3835 support turned resistance will revive the case of trend reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

    GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

    GBP/USD Daily Chart

    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9747; (P) 0.9778; (R1) 0.9814; More....

    Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it's still bounded in range of 0.9704/9835. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9704 will argue that rebound from 0.9420 has completed. This will also mixed up the near term outlook and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9587 support. On the upside, break of 0.9835 will extend the rebound to 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9420 at 0.9990.

    In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could develop into a medium term move and target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9587 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

    USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

    USD/CHF Daily Chart

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.99; (P) 112.23; (R1) 112.43; More...

    Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first. With 112.57 minor resistance intact, another decline is in favor. Below 111.64 will target 55 day EMA (now at 111.45) first. Sustained break there will target 107.31 and possibly below. Nonetheless, above 112.57 will bring retest of 113.43. Break there will resume whole rise from 107.31 for 114.49 key resistance.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.

    Daily Technical Analysis: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF


    EURUSD

    The EURUSD had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 1.1736. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 1.1670 key support, which is the “neckline” of a “head and shoulders” formation as you can see on my daily chart below. A clear break and daily close below 1.1670 would confirm the bearish reversal scenario with nearest target seen at 1.1450. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1800. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1850 but key resistance remains at 1.1900 which need to be clearly broken to the upside to potentially resume the major bullish trend testing 1.2000 – 1.2090 region.

    GBPUSD

    The GBPUSD continued to trade lower yesterday bottomed at 1.3154. The bias remains bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 1.3150 testing the daily EMA 200 and the major trend line support located around 1.3000 – 1.2950 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.3225. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.3285 area but key resistance remains at 1.3330 region which need to be clearly broken to the upside to reactivate my bullish mode.

    USDJPY

    The USDJPY was indecisive yesterday. Price attempted to push higher topped at 112.47 but closed a little bit lower at 112.18. The bias is neutral in nearest term probably with a little bearish bias testing 111.65 support area. A clear break and daily close below that area would expose 111.00 – 110.65 area. Immediate resistance is seen around 112.47. A clear break and daily close above that area would retest 113.20 key resistance area. Overall I remain neutral.

    USDCHF

    The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 0.9808 but closed a little bit lower at 0.9783. The bias is bullish in nearest term but only a clear break back above 0.9807/36 key resistance would nullify the bearish pin bar scenario and activate my bullish mode with nearest target seen at 0.9950. Immediate support is seen around 0.9765/50. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but would keep the bearish pin bar scenario alive and kicking testing 0.9700 area. Overall I remain neutral.