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AUD/USD is strengthening breaking above rising channel top. Next resistance is given at 0.7875 (04/10/2017 high). Support lies at at 0.7733 (06/10/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase.

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD continues to bounce within uptrend channel. Strong support is located at a distance at 1.2062 (08/09/2017 low). Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Resistance is given at 1.2663 (31/08/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures within uptrend channel.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF is trading within uptrend channel, Hourly support stands at 0.9712 (12/10/2017 low). The technical structure suggests an improving short-term buying interest. Expected to show continued bullish pressures within uptrend channel.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has failed to hold above former resistance given at 113.26 (27/09/2017 low). Support is located at 111.99 (16/10/2017 low). Downside risks are rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD continues to rise after the break of falling channel. A support can be found at 1.3237 (intraday low). Hourly resistances stand at 1.3265 (intraday high).

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD continues to improve and is now close to the key resistance at 1.1890 (25/09/2017 high). Strong support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show some short-term consolidation.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBPJPY holds a neutral bias in the near term after stalling its decline from 152.85 to 146.93. Short-term trend and momentum signals are highlighting the lack of direction in the market and point to a consolidation phase between the key levels of 147 and 149. On the 4-hour chart, RSI and MACD are flat, while the 20 and 50-period moving averages are horizontal.

Immediate support is expected at 146.65. The market is expected to remain well supported at this level but a break it would open the way towards 144 and then 140. To the upside, resistance is seen at 150. Another push higher would see a re-test of the 152.85 peak before the resumption of the August to September uptrend.

The neutral to bearish phase is expected to remain intact in the short term. Fibonacci analysis shows price action around the 38.2% retracement. While risk is to the downside, only a drop below the 50% retracement level at 146.17 would reverse the 139.30 – 152.85 uptrend.

Concerns on the inflation path and questions on the future of tax plans continued to weigh on the dollar on Friday, while the pound drifted higher on reports that the UK may get a 2-year transitional period before it exits the EU.

Although yesterday's encouraging data on US producer prices and initial jobless claims helped the dollar to gain some ground against its major counterparts, markets remained cautious on the timing of another interest rate hike in 2017 after the Fed's September meeting minutes released on late Wednesday raised concerns on whether factors weighing on price growth are more persistent after all.

Optimism on Trump's proposed tax overhaul was somewhat fading as Trump showed some opposition to certain aspects of the tax plan this week after he was informed that the plan would hurt middle-class families according to sources familiar with the matter. Also noteworthy is that on Tuesday Republican Senator Todd Young said he would not support any tax overhaul plan that would “blow a hole in the budget”.

Later in the day, markets will keep a close eye on the US CPI readings to get more insights on the inflation path.

The dollar index broke below the 93-key level it reached yesterday to trade at 92.79 during the Asian session. The yen saw some moderate gains on the news of a small earthquake near the area where North Korea conducted nuclear tests in the past. South Korea's weather agency said though that this was a natural phenomenon. Dollar/yen was 0.25% down at 111.99.

Gold made a fresh two-week high at $1,298.94 per ounce, gaining 0.30%.

A report by the German newspaper Handelsblatt on Wednesday, stating that the EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier might offer the UK a two-year transitional period during a meeting of EU ambassadors today, boosted the pound to a 1 ½-week high of $1.3311. The offer, however, would be under the condition that the UK will meet its EU financial obligations and will give up its voting rights. This came a few hours after Barnier said that the Brexit divorce bill was in a “deadlock”, driving the pound to a three-day low of $1.3143.

The euro edged down by 0.08% to 1.1821 following a report overnight that the ECB policymakers agreed to extend the 2.3 trillion asset purchases program into next year. Particularly sources with knowledge of the matter said that the ECB is considering reducing asset purchases from the current 60 billion euros to 30 billion euros in January and maintain the program for at least nine months. ECB policymakers are expected to meet on October 26 to decide on whether they will tighten monetary policy before the quantitative program expires in December.

In other currencies, the aussie gained 0.22%, rising to an eight-day high of $0.7843 despite lower than expected trade data out of China. Still, export figures remained strong. The kiwi was up by 0.21% at $0.7142, with New Zealand's kingmaker First party holding a board meeting on Monday.

Regarding energy markets, a larger than expected reduction in US oil inventories as per the EIA report pushed oil prices higher. US crude oil inventories declined by 2.747 million barrels, while analysts expected a fall of 1.1991 million barrels. WTI crude jumped by 1.32% to $51.27 per barrel and Brent increased by 1.28% to $56.97.

The Aussie remains firm on Friday and extends the succession of higher highs and higher lows this week.

The pair holds in green for the fourth consecutive day and probes again into daily cloud, following repeated failure to close above the base of rising daily cloud (currently at 0.7818).

Today's fresh advance emerged above falling 4-hr cloud and generated bullish signal for extension towards key near-term barriers at 0.7865/74 (20SMA / Fibo 38.2% of 0.8102/0.7732 / 04 Oct high).

Eventual close above cloud base will be bullish signal while sustained break above 0.7874 would spark further retracement of 0.8102/0.7732 fall.

Key supports at 0.7800 zone (converged 10/100SMA's / daily Tenkan-sen) are expected to contain and keep the downside protected.

US data are in focus today and near-term bias is expected to be determined by the outcome.

Res: 0.7845, 0.7874, 0.7917, 0.7929
Sup: 0.7814, 0.7803, 0.7782, 0.7748

EURUSD is moving lower, can be already in wave-c, final leg of a corrective set-back that can stop at 1.1800 level or even at 1.1760; near 61.8% Fib. level. But important is that this is a corrective decline; a temporary downward move that may see limited downside.

EURUSD, 1H

Crude oil is making a sharp rise, now back above 51.00 after a nice three wave set-back yesterday that found a low near 50.10 as expected. Current rise is strong and breaking above the channel resistance line so new highs are likely coming, up to around 52.00.

Crude OIL, 1H