Sun, Apr 19, 2026 13:16 GMT
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    BITCOIN Breaking Sell Walls

    Swissquote Bank SA

    Bitcoin has taken a dive after strong interest over the summer. The digital currency has set up a new support at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). Sell walls around $4000 have been broken. Key resistance can be located at 4921 (01/09/2017 high). The road is wide open for further shortterm increase.

    In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

    EUR/CHF Ready To Bounce Back

    EUR/CHF is riding lower within uptrend channel. Buying pressures are still strong. Strong resistance is now given at 1.1623 (22/09/2017 high). Expected to bounce back within uptrend channel.

    In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

    EUR/GBP Consolidating Within Short-Term Bearish Momentum

    EUR/GBP is trading mixed today. Yet, the pair is facing selling pressures. As long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.8899 (19/09/2017 low), the short-term technical structure is biased to the downside. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017). Strong resistance lies at 0.9306 (29/07/2017 high).

    In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

    AUD/USD Continued Weakness

    AUD/USD is weakening in the short-term. Hourly resistance is given at 0.8164 (14/05/2017 high). The pair is approaching support at 0.7786 (18/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

    In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

    USD/CAD Short-Term Bullish Pressures Continue

    USD/CAD continues to move higher. Strong support is now located at a distance 1.2062 (08/09/2017 low). Resistance given at 1.2390 (20/09/2017 high) has been broken. Expected to show continued short-term bullish pressures.

    In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

    USD/CHF Edging Higher

    USD/CHF keeps on trading higher since September. Closest resistance is given at 0.9808 (30/05/2017 high). The technical structure shows that there are decent downside risks. Strong support is given at 0.9421 (03/05/2017). Expected to show renewed bearish pressures.

    In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

    USD/JPY Bullish Breakout

    USD/JPY keeps on monitoring the 113.00 level. Strong support is located at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low). The pair has exited uptrend channel. Yet, downside risks are rising as markets may soon take some short-term profit.

    We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

    GBP/USD Riding Downtrend Channel

    GBP/USD is pushing lower after topping at 1.3657 (20/09/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.3350 (intrady low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures within downtrend channel.

    The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

    EUR/USD Downside Pressures Are Still On

    EUR/USD is going lower within downtrend channel. Hourly resistance can be found at 1.2092 (08/09/2017 high) while hourly support lies at 1.1823 (31/08/2017 low) has been broken. Stronger support is given at a distance at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

    In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

    Politics Providing Market Volatility

    Hope won't knock USD strength vs yen

    Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win the upcoming election in late October, and thereafter continue with his stimulus programme known as ‘Abenomics'. This is our baseline forecast, which combined with a solid American economy and rising US interest rates will buoy the greenback against Japan's yen. Over the past year, the dollar has gone from buying only 100 yen to now buying around 113.

    Still, JPY's has slowed, given an unexpected emergence of a popular competitor to Abe. Tokyo's Governor Yuriko Koike has thrown her hat in the prime ministerial ring by forming a new ‘Party of Hope'. We doubt she will win, but Hope is likely to win seats and so weaken Abe's rule.

    Pound to stay calm and carry on

    We remain GBP buyers on any Brexit-generated weakness. EUR/GBP should find support near its 200-day moving average at 0.8725 Euros, with a recovery bouncing it towards 0.8885.

    Hard Brexit is overrated. We believe soft Brexit will be the final outcome. Besides, the UK economy's disregard of Brexit (consumers are buying!) will force the Bank of England to challenge inflation and tighten money anyway. After Prime Minister Theresa May's speech last week in Florence, where she laid out her Brexian vision, markets are relieved that both parties finally seem willing to compromise. The UK accepts it must pay an ‘exit fee', and the European Union has signalled willingness not to gouge Britain with the bill. Political noise will persist, but we foresee a kinder, gentler Brexit.

    NZD to underperform

    Given weak inflation, a hung parliament and ambitious exporters, New Zealand's central bank is in no hurry to tighten the purse. Today the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rates unchanged at 1.75%.

    The RBNZ's Acting Governor Grant Spencer, who just took office yesterday, left options open as to what comes next. The RBNZ highlighted that policy will remain “accommodative for a considerable period” and given broad uncertainties, policy “may need to adjust accordingly.” Finally, the RBNZ said that global economic growth has continued to improve while inflation and wage pressure dynamics remain subdued.