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The pair shows strong signs of hesitation at 113.00 barrier which was dented on Wednesday / today on spikes to 113.25/20 highs, but so far without firm break higher.

Overall picture remains bullish, following break and close above previous target at 112.80 (Fibo 76.4% of 114.49/107.31 descend) with techs on daily chart in full bullish setup and supportive for further advance.

Rising 10 SMA is about to cross 200SMA and form Golden Cross which would provide an additional boost.

Sustained break above 113.00 zone would expose next targets - upper 20d Bollinger band at 113.68 and psychological 114.00 barrier.

Dips are expected to hold above 200SMA (112.05) and keep bulls intact.

Res: 113.25, 113.57, 113.68, 114.00
Sup: 112.71, 112.19, 112.05, 111.47

Cable bounces in early hours of European session after hitting fresh two-week low at 1.3348, after failing to return below weekly 100SMA, which was broken two weeks ago for the first time since Oct 2014. The pair was in red for the five consecutive days, following pullback from fresh post-Brexit recovery high at 1.3655. Bearish near-term studies see risk of further easing towards next strong supports at 1.3318 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2773/1.3655 ascend) and 1.3305 (rising 20SMA). Corrective upticks should stay capped under 1.3500 (daily Tenkan-sen) to keep near-term bears in play. Speech of BoE's Governor Carney is in focus today.

Res: 1.3409, 1.3461, 1.3482, 1.3500
Sup: 1.3363, 1.3348, 1.3318, 1.3305

The Euro is consolidating above key supports at 1.1724/20 (daily cloud top / Fibo 38.2% of 1.1118/1.2092 rally) which contains three-day fall from 1.1963, high posted after Monday’s gap-lower opening.

The pair maintains negative sentiment from German election outcome and took out some important supports that weakened technical outlook.

Upside attempts above daily cloud were so far mild, as falling hourly cloud continues to weigh, but the pair may stay in extended consolidation above ascending thick daily cloud (1.1724/1.1514) which provides significant support. Also, extended daily studies suggest bears may take a breather above the cloud before bears resume.

Asian session’s recovery top at 1.1776 marks initial resistance, ahead of broken 55SMA (1.1810) and broken neckline of daily H&S pattern at 1.1851, which is seen ideally capping extended corrective upticks.

Negative techs favor further downside, with sustained break below daily cloud top (1.1724) to trigger fresh extension of current wave C (of five wave pattern from 1.2092), towards its Fibonacci expansion levels at 1.1680 (138.2%) and 1.1619 (161.8%).

German inflation data are in focus today (CPI m/m is expected to stay unchanged at 0.1% in Sep).

Res: 1.1776, 1.1810, 1.1851, 1.1875
Sup: 1.1724, 1.1680, 1.1662, 1.1619

The USD is still in an uptrend and it appears that more upside may be seen in the near future if we consider that USD index can be making a five wave move within wave C/3, so there is even room for 94.20 after wave 4 set-back. We however may immediately turn bearish again, but after 92.18 is broken.

USD Index, 1H

While USD index is up, we may see more weakness on commodity currencies which are very poor this week. NZDUSD is moving nicely lower and it appears that there might be room for a drop to 0.7100 in the near future.

NZDUSD, 1H

Unfortunately for the Euro, a shared border of two senior descending channels did not manage to withhold the rate from falling to the south. However, this plunge did not last for long, as the currency pair made a turnaround apparently form the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715. Given that this barrier is additionally secured by the monthly S1 at 1.1692 and the weekly S3 at 1.1688, the further appreciation of the buck seems unlikely. On the other hand, the surge in the opposite direction is similarly obstructed by the weekly S2 at 1.1774 and the slipping 55-hour SMA. For this reason, the pair might move horizontally for some time waiting for a strong impulse, which can be provided, for instance, by release of data on the US Final GDP.

Contrary to expectations, the currency exchange rate did not make any significant moves yesterday and, for this reason, stayed in a falling wedge for additional day. However, the fact that the first four hours of this trading session were dominated by bears suggests that the pair is likely to leave the pattern in the southern direction.

Such outcome is supported not only by the weekly S1 located at the 1.3412 level but also by the 55-hour SMA, which is moving precisely along the resistance line of the wedge. Although the pair might face a strong support in the area between the 1.3350 and 1.3328 marks, from a larger perspective the Greenback should continue to gain value against the Pound.

Unfortunately for the Yen, the buck traders managed to push the pair through a combined resistance formed by the monthly R2 at 112.54 in conjunction with the upper trend-line of a ten month long falling wedge pattern. Despite such significant breakthrough, the exchange rate continues to fluctuate in two recently formed ascending channels whose cross point might represent a breaking point of another minor rising wedge. If this assumption is true, the pair might try to slip to the bottom. However, all these attempts are likely to be neutralized by a combination of the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. To put differently, if the pair has indeed left the long-term pattern, it might freely continue to climb to the top, facing no significant obstacles on its way (at least in the short run).

Although previously the pair failed to break through the 1,290.93 level, a pressure from multiple technical indicators eventually pushed it to the bottom. As a result, the exchange rate reached the supposed yesterday's target at the 1,283.66 mark and represented the weekly S1. In theory, the buck has all means to drag the gold price down to the monthly S1, which is located at the 1,273.91 level and is additionally backed up by the 100-day SMA. However, in order to do that it has to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. In the short run these barriers a likely to force the pair to make a rebound. But from larger perspective, the pair has to pave the way through them and ultimately reach the bottom edge of the dominant ascending channel.

The New Zealand Dollar fell against the Greenback, following the RBNZ monetary policy announcement and interest rate decision, which matched analysts’ forecasts. The NZD/USD fell 0.19% to the 0.7207 area to finish the Wednesday session trading flat near the 0.7205 level. The key target level for the pair remained at the 0.7100 mark as the US Dollar was likely to rise on tighter policy of the Fed.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely anticipated. Meanwhile, the Bank revised projections for the country’s economy, expecting it to maintain current expansion pace, and softened the stance around the local currency, as its weakness could contribute to the inflation growth.

Upbeat US reports on Durable Goods Orders for August allowed the US Dollar to strengthen its position against the Euro. Following the release, the EUR/USD lost 15 base points to touch the intraday low of 1.1720. Despite temporary retreat to the 1.1770 mark, the pair remained under bearish sentiment, revealing no signals for a reversal in the near-term.

The Commerce Department showed that new orders for the US-made capital goods rose more than anticipated 1.7% over the month of August, while shipments continued to increase, suggesting the strengthening of the US economy, despite an expected drag from Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Moreover, sign of rising spending on equipment buoyed expectations for the Fed’s December rate hike.